San Diego vs. Minnesota: Key Pitching Decisions Analyzed

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00:00A 1-0-5 start here in the Twin Cities.

00:02San Diego's going to go with Morgan in this game to open.

00:05And then Ryan, of course, the stalwart there for the Minnesota Twins.

00:08This line opened up, Tom, overnight.

00:09Minus 140s as a favorite towards Minnesota.

00:12Backtracking now to minus 120 to minus 125 in a total of 8.5.

00:17Yesterday, the Padres really brought the bats.

00:19Did they do that today against Ryan again?

00:22I would hope so.

00:23I was on the Padres yesterday.

00:24Just thinking of bounce back spot.

00:26You know, that was a good pitcher.

00:27All things said and done.

00:28It's going to be Kyle Hart coming in as the long reliever after Morgan.

00:34And Hart was a starter earlier in the year.

00:36Dealt with some injuries.

00:37Got sent back and, you know, up and down, et cetera, et cetera.

00:40But he hasn't pitched a whole lot recently.

00:42And this is actually going to be his first appearance since July 24th.

00:45We only pitched the one inning.

00:46So I can understand backing the Padres because you could say that they're by far the better team.

00:53But it is really tough to do when we have an opener and then a pitcher making his first.

00:58First appearance in over a month after the opener.

01:00It's not just the opener.

01:02So, yeah.

01:02I can kind of make a case for both.

01:04However, Donnie, I think this is a spot that I think leads to a lack of scoring overall.

01:09It's a little bit cooler.

01:10A little bit of wind blowing in.

01:11I would back the Twins.

01:12Like, Joe Ryan's a really good pitcher when it's all said and done.

01:15And also, a sneaky lineup.

01:17I'm telling you, those teams in the Central Divisions, they got sneaky lineups.

01:20We always pay attention to the Yankees lineups, the Phillies, you know, the Atlanta Braves or the Dodgers.

01:25They got some sneaky lineups that can really get after it and do some damage.

01:28Joe Ryan, by the way, his last 45 days.

01:30Analytics always loves this guy.

01:31He reminds me a lot of, like, a Logan Gilbert, like, give me a guy that strikes out, like, 11 guys per nine innings.

01:36And they go off the charts.

01:37His ERA is a little bit high here.

01:39You take a look at his X-Whip number.

01:40It's 3.44.

01:41Like, an ERA of 4.66 and an X-Whip of 3.44.

01:44Why?

01:44Sometimes you get saved by the strikeout.

01:46And maybe there's a chance of that today.

01:48Eight and a half as the total there in the Twin Cities.

01:50We'll see if it gets there.

01:51Let's take a look at Tampa and Washington.

01:53And if I just sometimes have a coronary.

01:55Talking about certain baseball games.

01:56I got another one yesterday.

01:58I was telling Tom over the break.

01:59Like, you get a three-run home run that buzzes to your phone on a four-and-a-half total early in the game.

02:04Like, this is great.

02:05I faded a bad pitcher.

02:06He's probably going to get lit up.

02:07It might end in three innings where I already have the five runs.

02:09But you know what you have in your back pocket, too, Tom?

02:11A really bad bullpen for the Nationals.

02:13Did you know yesterday?

02:14And, of course, Tampa Bay won.

02:16Donnie, just take him on the money line.

02:17I understand.

02:18Tom, they didn't have a base runner against the Nationals' bullpen from the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, or 9 innings.

02:24It's unheard of, but as we say, that's baseball.

02:27Seymour's on the now.

02:28What a fantastic name here for my guy for Tampa Bay.

02:31Going up against Brad Lord, who has had some success, but started to leak a little bit oil as of late.

02:36Favorite here, minus 140s in the stretch for the Tampa Bay Rays.

02:39Anywhere between minus 142 to minus 148 in a total of 8.5.

02:43Lord versus Seymour today.

02:45How about that?

02:46You know, this is a spot where, I'll be honest, the Nats kind of made my short list for dog of the day.

02:52I didn't get there, so not on the Nats for dog of the day.

02:55I am on another team.

02:56But, you know, this matchup is a little bit confusing to me.

03:00When we're looking, the point is, I think the Rays are too heavy of a favor.

03:04Seymour has a total of 28.1 innings pitched this year in the majors, his first year.

03:08He was a reliever beforehand slash opener.

03:11Then they elevate him in his most recent start to a full starter at five innings pitch.

03:15The strikeouts can be there for him, which I think are solid.

03:18Like you said, Brad Lord on the other side has been good-ish.

03:21He hasn't been amazing, and there's certainly some, you know, kind of dents in the armor for him overall.

03:27This game, I would play the Nats on the money line.

03:29I really would.

03:30I wouldn't be trusting this price on the Rays.

03:32I think the Rays are the better team when it's all said and done.

03:34But I don't want to go to a minus 144 number knowing that they're struggling against a bad Nats bullpen.

03:40Yes, it's only one day baseball, but kind of give me the Nats here.

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