00:04At 12.04, we're already going to have kickoff at Ohio State.
00:07It's Texas and Ohio State, something we've been waiting for all offseason long, Joe.
00:12You look at the lines, you open up, give or take a three-point favorite here by Ohio State at home.
00:16It has swung all the way to Texas as a favorite.
00:20And by the way, bouncing back and forth now.
00:22Do I see this correctly, that Ohio State is now back as the favorite today?
00:25Yeah, we saw a big money.
00:26We saw somebody put in, what, $550,000 in Vegas on Texas.
00:31That moved the line.
00:32All of a sudden, we saw late action come back in on the Buckeyes.
00:35I think when you look at this game, Donnie, it's going to come down to two factors.
00:39What does the offense look like now with Julian saying for Ohio State?
00:43And can that defense for the Buckeyes take off where they left off with Jim Knowles,
00:48a national championship caliber front, now with Matt Patricia,
00:51going up against a Heisman frontrunner in Arch Manning?
00:54Can he produce? He's lost his top two wide receivers in Isaiah Bond and Matt Golden.
00:59Can this Texas offense step up?
01:02They were 6-2 and battle-tested on the road, but they lost this game and didn't cover
01:06because of Quinn Lewis last year.
01:08Let's get the microscope out and go over this game handily, Joe.
01:11You look at the quarterback situation.
01:12Julian Sain's going to start for Ohio State, transfer in from Alabama.
01:15In the system, though, for a year, that certainly should help.
01:18Arch Manning, been in the system for a few years down under Sark in Texas.
01:21Give me the output because, obviously, Arch Manning is the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy this year.
01:26If he plays well, he's probably going to win it.
01:27We'll see if he then comes out in the draft, which, you know, Pop-Pop saying I shouldn't come out.
01:31I'm saying I might come out.
01:32You get the picture.
01:33But answer me this, Joe.
01:34A lot of pressure on Arch Manning.
01:36But Julian Sain, what are the expectations for Ohio State after a national championship handing it over to him?
01:41Play clean and get the football to Jeremiah Smith.
01:44He's got Jeremiah Smith's total today is 77.5.
01:47He's the best offensive player on the field today.
01:50Utilize him and get the football.
01:52Do not throw the ball into double coverage, force turnovers.
01:55If you do that, you're going to put the Buckeyes' defense at a disadvantage.
01:58I think when you look at this matchup, look at the running backs for Ohio State.
02:02If they can run the football effectively, that'll take the pressure off of Julian Sain.
02:07And having home field advantage is huge, Donnie.
02:09You talk about Ohio State, they were 8-1 last year and won those games at home by an average margin of victory of 32.7 points per game.
02:18That's why you're seeing them as a 1.5-point favorite.
02:20Now, let's look at the total in this game, Joe.
02:22Opening just a few weeks ago, let's just say, 50.5 to 51.
02:26I'm looking game day, 47.5, 46.5, 47's out there in the marketplace.
02:32What gives on that total, and why is it dropping?
02:34Because you look at both sides, offense is not—Texas last run offense up and down the field.
02:39You take a look at Ohio State up and down the field, national championship.
02:42Are the defenses this good, or are we just saying these quarterbacks have to get broken in as the true starters of the team?
02:47Well, I think when you look at the perception, the perception is Texas has potentially the better defense in this matchup.
02:54But Ohio State brings back six starters, and they potentially have the best defensive player on the field in Caleb Downs.
03:00So the X factor is Matt Patricia.
03:03I will say when you look at the total, everybody's going to say it's going to be a lower-scoring game,
03:07I mean, Texas couldn't run the football in that matchup last year.
03:10Ohio State allowed 87 rushing yards per game, one of the top-rush defenses in all of college football.
03:16But when you look at Texas, in two games they struggled in the college football playoff.
03:20Against Arizona State, they won but didn't cover.
03:23They averaged 1.7 yards per carry, only two yards per carry against the Buckeyes.
03:28That's the matchup.
03:29If they can run the football, that'll take the pressure off of Arch, and then they can have balanced, sustained drives.
03:34But again, I do feel we get through this 47.5 just because a big game, and you're going to have big plays by some of these playmakers.
03:42Joe, talk to me about Ohio State.
03:44We talked so many times in the business about continuity and coming back, right?
03:48Like, who's going to be your quarterback?
03:49Will Howard's off to the NFL.
03:51Also, at the same time, who is going to be your offensive and defensive coordinator?
03:54Chip Kelly's in the NFL now.
03:55Matt Patricia's your defensive coordinator.
03:57Two different opposing viewpoints where it's like, okay, we were comfortable last year with this.
04:01Now we're not.
04:02Things are going to try new.
04:03You don't get the Samfords of the world to play in week number one.
04:06How do we think of the OCDC works out today?
04:08I think Matt Patricia, for the long season, we don't know what to expect.
04:13But having six months of preparation, I think, benefits Ohio State.
04:17And here's the other factor as well.
04:18You have two starters coming back in the defensive front seven.
04:21This is a team, like I mentioned, 87 rushing yards allowed.
04:24They held nine opponents last year under 100 yards rushing and were 9-0 in those matchups and won, Donnie, by an average margin of victory of 30 points per game.
04:34The quickest way to adjust is getting that front seven and take away the run.
04:39And then that puts the pressure on Arch Manning.
04:41But you have Caleb Downs in the backfield in the secondary.
04:44He's the captain and can really communicate with all of the defensive backs.
04:48That's the matchup.
04:49I still give the inside edge to Matt Patricia because they're at home.
04:54Everybody talks about the losses for Ohio State offensively.
04:57What about the losses offensively to Texas?
05:00Gunner Helm, you look at Matt Golden and Isaiah Bond.
05:03I know they have more and some of the other playmakers coming back like Wingo.
05:07But that's more pressure going on the road against the defending national champs.
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