Delmar Handicap Analysis: Horse Profiles & Predictions

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00:00Let's meet the field for the Del Mar handicap.

00:03Balnikoff, kind of a deeper closer.

00:05He finished fourth most recently.

00:07He was actually right behind Stay Hot.

00:08I think we have a replay of the two of them finishing third and fourth in the Eddie Reed.

00:13I actually like Stay Hot a little bit more coming out of that

00:15because I think he can sit a little closer and Stay Hot.

00:18Feels like he might be moving in the right direction.

00:21I wonder if Balnikoff, we might have seen some of his better races.

00:23This was one of his more recent okay efforts finishing fourth here, though.

00:30Yeah, he made a three-wide middle move in there,

00:32so understandably was a little bit tired in there.

00:34But I think I'm with you.

00:36I don't like that he's a way out-the-back type closer here.

00:38And I think his best days are behind him,

00:41and maybe his best races are at a bit shorter distances.

00:44Adios Cole will have to step up off of a most recent win.

00:48What's tricky about him is that he's stepping up,

00:50and he's also trying way longer distances than he's been at.

00:54So just a couple variables that are real question marks.

00:57Yeah, and he loses Juan Hernandez as he gave him an absolutely beautiful ride

01:01against Leicester last time out.

01:03Lots of questions to answer.

01:05The tote board likely to show it.

01:06Edwin Gonzalez takes over.

01:08An aggressive jockey, I would assume he'll be somewhat forward.

01:11Nitti is next up, and he's in sharp form, Scott.

01:14He's won three of his last five, including the grade three San Juan Capistrano.

01:18This is just tougher than what he's been facing.

01:20And with his running style coming from way, way out of it,

01:23I don't know if he's going to get the setup in here where they're going to be flying early on,

01:27and it's a really fast pace.

01:29I think he's another one that's a cut below and going to be way too far out of it, Nitti.

01:33I'm up against it here for Leonard Powell and Armando Ayuso.

01:37Stay Hot is interesting to me.

01:39I'm not positive that he really is a mile and three-eighths horse.

01:42We've never seen him go this far.

01:44But when you look at the way this race could shape up,

01:47if final boss gets the lead, I could see Stay Hot sitting second or third maybe in this race, Scott,

01:53getting a really nice trip and maybe getting the jump on those deeper closers like Gold Phoenix.

01:59So third start of the form cycle, third start as a four-year-old,

02:02I'm just expecting a really good effort from Stay Hot in here.

02:06Yeah, if he can get the distance and then gets the trip,

02:08I think that puts him, you know, set for a career best to find out just how good he is.

02:13You do notice, though, that three of his first four wins,

02:17three of his four wins came in his first four starts, I should say.

02:20So hasn't necessarily been winning as much of late as he's moved in to this class level.

02:25Atitlin is a horse who was supposed to run in the Eddie Reed.

02:28He kicked a wall in his stall and had to miss the Eddie Reed.

02:32So it was disappointing that he looked like a player in that race.

02:36But if you look at his workout, Scott,

02:40it really only looks like he may have missed one work based on the timing of that.

02:44I like him in these longer distances.

02:47My only concern is just that it's been a few months now since we've seen him.

02:51But look at that race going a mile and a half in the San Luis Rey.

02:54He actually beats Gold Phoenix and he earns his highest ever buyer speed figure in that race.

03:00So I don't think he's overmatched by this group.

03:03I'm just a little worried he might be like a race short.

03:06Yeah, it looks like he would have been perfectly set up for that race going a mile in the grade one

03:10off that fifth place effort to stretch out against a little softer competition.

03:15It concerns me a little that his career best numbers at a further distance,

03:18not shorter at this one, but he shouldn't have any problem getting the distance to your point.

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