Bolsonaro coup trial: US pressure on Brazil has increased Lula's popularity, expert says

FRANCE 24 English

Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

Transcript

00:00With a security tightened around the home of the former president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro.

00:06The authorities there fear that Bolsonaro is a flight risk ahead of his treason trial.

00:12And there is, of course, also outrage still bubbling under about Donald Trump threatening Brazil with sanctions

00:17if the case against a man seen in his political admirer is not dropped.

00:22President Lula announces to cabinet the American decision to revoke the Justice Minister's U.S. visa.

00:32It might not have an impact as wide as the 50% tariff leveled against Brazil at the end of July,

00:38but the message is just as clear, and so too was Lula's response.

00:42If we liked emperors, Brazil would still be a monarchy.

00:47We don't want that anymore.

00:48We want this country to be democratic and sovereign, a republic, which is what we've learned to build.

00:56Trying a former leader was never going to be easy,

00:59and President Lula went on to accuse Jair Bolsonaro's son, based in the U.S.,

01:05of lobbying the Trump administration and, in so doing, betraying Brazil.

01:09On the same day, Supreme Court judge overseeing the coup attempt trial,

01:14Alexander de Moraes ordered a round-the-clock monitoring of the former president,

01:19already under house arrest due to flight risk.

01:22And at least one other judge on the Supreme Court has come out in vocal support of his colleague's stance.

01:30I consider the work carried out by Alexander de Moraes to be extremely important, even historic,

01:35and I fully support his work and his performance.

01:38The defendant is facing up to 40 years in prison if convicted of plotting to hold on to power

01:44after losing the 2022 elections.

01:50It is a remarkable situation, those images that we saw ending the report by Daniel Quinlan

01:54really illustrating what happened when Jair Bolsonaro refused to accept defeat

01:59in the presidential election, and, of course, his supporters storming the seat of power in Brasilia.

02:04Let's bring in for more analysis, Richard Lapper.

02:06Richard is from the Chatham House think tank.

02:08He is also author of a book, and we'll show you the cover of that book, Beef, Bible and Bullets.

02:13Richard, continue the title of your book, please.

02:16Beef, Bible and Bullets, and?

02:18Well, Brazil in the Age of Bolsonaro is the subtitle,

02:22although I think the Age of Bolsonaro is coming to an end, as your report has indicated.

02:30It indicates that you are the right person at the right time to have to talk about this story,

02:34and thank you, sir, for joining us here on France 34.

02:36We appreciate your time.

02:38What do you make of this situation, then, where we have Bolsonaro being supported by Donald Trump

02:43so overtly, it seems, in the sense that Trump would even threaten tariffs against Brazil

02:48if the case isn't dropped?

02:49Yeah, I mean, the tariffs that Trump introduced, the Trump administration introduced in mid-July

03:01and finally put into place in August have really racked up tension between Brazil and the United States.

03:10Bolsonaro is facing trial, which will begin next week, on the grounds, as your report's already suggested,

03:18in fact, on the grounds of him planning, along with his associates, say, a military coup to kill Lula

03:27and the deputy president, Geraldo Altman, and his, the main chief justice, Alessandro de Moraes,

03:34back in December 2022.

03:38And these are no trumped-up charges.

03:39The federal police have an 800-page dossier detailing the plot.

03:47It ended in 2003 in a whimper when the supporters of Bolsonaro invaded Congress,

03:57much as supporters of Donald Trump himself had invaded the Congress buildings in the United States

04:04back in 2020, when he lost that election.

04:09So there's a case against Bolsonaro, and Trump basically has said that unless that case is dropped,

04:16these sanctions will be imposed on Brazil.

04:21Fortunately for President Lula, this has turned out to be something of an own goal,

04:27since Brazil's not that dependent on the United States.

04:33Its economy won't be that heavily affected by the 50% tariff.

04:39And in fact, the main effect of this measure is to increase Lula's popularity.

04:46You know, over the last two months, Lula's, as you see there on the images,

04:51has been rejuvenated.

04:53He's 80 in October.

04:56He has a chance to fight a fourth election in October next year.

05:04And at the moment, he's looking good for a potential re-election.

05:09Isn't the main asset, the main weapon that Lula has in this big discussion,

05:15is that he was elected fairly.

05:17Am I right in presuming that the election, as it took place,

05:20there was no great suspicion of widespread fraud?

05:23There was no great suspicion that anything had been fixed.

05:25Lula was elected fairly and squarely, but Bolsonaro would not accept losing.

05:31I mean, I don't think, I mean, there's lots of wrongs with the Brazilian political system.

05:37But I don't, I think the electoral system itself is generally regarded as being quite fair.

05:43It's an electronic system.

05:46And I don't think, you know, Bolsonaro, before he criticised and complained about fraud in 2022,

05:54when Lula won, he'd been elected for successive congressional elections.

06:00He was elected in 2018 as president by this same system.

06:04So it rings fairly hollow, to be frank.

06:07So that's another parallel with Donald Trump, then, of Bolsonaro.

06:13There's definitely a parallel with Donald Trump.

06:16I mean, it's a deliberate parallel as far as Bolsonaro is concerned.

06:20And he's described Donald Trump as his idol, a political idol.

06:26And in many ways, the sort of right-wing populism that Trump represents,

06:33Bolsonaro represents in its Brazilian version.

06:36You know, good support for Bolsonaro from evangelical Christians,

06:41a lobby that's growing quite quickly in Brazil, about 25% of the population,

06:47from the agricultural sector who don't like environmental regulation,

06:54and from hardline policemen who want to take a tougher line against organized crime.

07:02So, clearly, Trump, having waived the threat of these tariffs,

07:07the effect of that on Brazil, you were talking about a little bit earlier.

07:10Can I go back to that and ask about the effect on Brazil's business, on the economy?

07:14And, of course, the trickle-down effect.

07:16Because if we talk about trickle-down, and usually we say trickle-down economics,

07:19what we do see is that poorer people get a worse deal.

07:25Well, look, I mean, Brazil exports about 11% of its export revenue

07:31come from the United States.

07:35These are, it's way more dependent these days on China and markets,

07:43other markets in what we call the global south,

07:45but 30% of its export revenue comes from China.

07:50So, the macroeconomic impacts of it, and these tariffs, in fact,

07:53will only affect about half those U.S. exports,

07:57because the U.S. realized that it would be harder hit than Brazil by the tariffs.

08:04Actually, you know, Brazil has a trade deficit with the United States.

08:09The U.S. has a trade surplus with Brazil.

08:11So, you know, Brazil's dependency on the U.S. is, you know,

08:17very, to some extent, very limited.

08:19In one or two sectors, however, there is an impact,

08:23in coffee, in orange juice, in some manufacturing sectors,

08:27and jobs will be lost in those sectors.

08:30The government in Brazil is doing quite a lot to try to offset that impact,

08:35in particular cases, with subsidies and an easy credit for those affected.

08:43But I think that there will be an impact, but it won't be that great.

08:48Interesting. And as you've already said,

08:49it seems like quite an own goal for Donald Trump to have scored.

08:53In terms of Jair Bolsonaro, clearly a man who stands for certain things,

08:58and some people like it and some people don't.

09:00But in terms of going through the legal process now,

09:03in terms of what could happen to him, what's your sense of how it will go?

09:08I think most people looking at this now think that it's very likely,

09:16very probable, I would say, that Bolsonaro will be sentenced to a long prison term.

09:24Now, people are talking in the latest commentary, 30, 40 years, potentially.

09:31These are very serious charges, of course.

09:34But now, whether once having been committed to a prison term,

09:40Bolsonaro stays in prison beyond that, for that period, is another matter.

09:46It's the right wing in Brazil, not necessarily those really loyal to Bolsonaro,

09:52but the right wing conservative interests in general are still very strong.

09:57And although Lula is likely to win next year's election, I think at this point,

10:04it's not inevitable.

10:06It's possible that a right wing government could come in in 2026 or in 2030

10:14and essentially quash the charges.

10:19So justice is very much a political game in Brazil?

10:24It is.

10:25I mean, I think it is a political game, but the judiciary in Brazil is,

10:30although it's subject to political influence,

10:33we're not talking about the rather crass manipulation of the judiciary

10:38that takes place in countries such as Venezuela or Bolivia,

10:44where the judiciary really have no independent existence.

10:50The institutions in Brazil are pretty strong.

10:54And they're not without their defects.

10:58But Brazil's a much more serious country.

11:00Richard Lapper, we'll leave it there.

11:04But thank you so much for the insight you've provided us.

11:06And I'll say once again that you are author of the book,

11:09Beef, Bible and Bullets, Brazil in the Age of Bolsonaro,

11:12which you say is an age which is coming to a close with this trial,

11:16which is going ahead.

11:17But of course, from the insight you've given us,

11:20we know that there are many interesting potential chapters ahead,

11:24some of which you may well write, Richard.

11:25Thank you very much indeed for joining us.

11:26Richard Lapper from Chatham House.

11:28Thank you, sir, very much indeed.

11:29Pleasure to see you.

Category

Transcript

Be the first to comment

Recommended