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Geopolitics today feels like a messy situationship — full of mixed signals and half-promises. Ukraine is the clearest example. Washington once hinted at firm security guarantees, but now says Europe must carry the burden. A “coalition of the willing” is emerging — with France, the UK, and the Baltics eager, Germany and Italy opposed, and others stuck in the middle. But without the U.S., Europe’s pledge looks shaky, and Russia is already rejecting any plan that excludes it. So, can Europe truly protect Ukraine? Or will cracks in this coalition leave Kyiv exposed as Moscow pushes back? Palki Sharma tells you. 

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Vantage is a ground-breaking news, opinions, and current affairs show from Firstpost. Catering to a global audience, Vantage covers the biggest news stories from a 360-degree perspective, giving viewers a chance to assess the impact of world events through a uniquely Indian lens.

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Transcript
00:00Geopolitics these days looks a lot like a messy situationship.
00:08There are vague promises, mixed signals and plenty of, let's see where this goes.
00:14Take the Ukraine war for example.
00:16First, the US said it would be involved in guaranteeing Ukraine's security.
00:21Then, Kiev pressed Washington on this.
00:23It wanted a clear signal, a yes or no.
00:26Instead, what followed was hedging.
00:27America now says it will help, but Europe will have to do the heavy lifting.
00:34Well, I don't think we should carry the burden here.
00:36I think that we should be helpful if it's necessary to stop the war and to stop the killing.
00:41But I think that we should expect, and the president certainly expects Europe to play the leading role here.
00:45And just like that, the burden has shifted across the Atlantic.
00:49The US was the anchor of Europe's defense, but it is now stepping back.
00:53So Europe has to step up.
00:54It has to guarantee Ukraine's security.
00:57But who in Europe is ready to step up?
01:01And what happens if Russia refuses to play along?
01:05That's what we'll discuss tonight.
01:06For decades, Europe's security has rested on one simple fact, that America always shows up.
01:13That's what they counted on.
01:14From NATO to Kosovo to Afghanistan, the US was the backbone.
01:18But Trump's Washington is different.
01:21There are no more open-ended commitments.
01:24Instead, the White House's message is quite blunt.
01:26Europe, this is your continent.
01:28It is your neighborhood.
01:29And hence, security is your responsibility.
01:33Ukraine has long hoped for NATO membership, or at least something that looks like it.
01:39Sort of like an Article 5.
01:41Article 5 of NATO, which says, an attack on one is an attack on all.
01:45That sort of security is what Ukraine was looking for.
01:48But Donald Trump shut that door.
01:50And that leaves Kiev with a fuzzy alternative.
01:54Some form of coalition guarantee cobbled together by willing European states.
01:59It does sound reassuring, until you realize that guarantees without the US are wobbly.
02:06The credibility is less, and the deterrence is shakier.
02:09And Russia knows it.
02:11This is the private conversation that we're all going to have about what's necessary to stop the war.
02:16But no matter what happens, no matter what form this takes,
02:20the Europeans are going to have to take the lion's share of the burden.
02:23It's their continent.
02:24It's their security.
02:25And the president's been very clear, they're going to have to step up here.
02:28So what is the plan right now?
02:31The so-called Coalition of the Willing is already hatching plans.
02:34There are three camps in this.
02:36The first one consists of those who are willing.
02:40France and the UK are leading this camp.
02:42They are promising troops.
02:43They want to train Ukrainian soldiers.
02:45There is even talk of boots on the ground.
02:48The Baltics, that's Lithuania and Estonia, are also eager.
02:52They see Ukraine's survival as their own.
02:56That's the first camp.
02:57Then there are those who are on the fence.
03:00The maybes.
03:01Sweden and Latvia are part of this camp.
03:03They aren't sure of signing up for actual deterrence.
03:06And the third category is that of countries that are vehemently against this plan.
03:11The country is saying no.
03:13Germany is among them.
03:14It is ready to write checks, but it is not willing to send troops to Ukraine.
03:19Same with Italy.
03:20It does not agree with this plan.
03:22Hungary and Poland are also against it.
03:23They want to focus on the NATO flank.
03:27So basically, Europe itself is divided on this idea.
03:30It is almost like a security blanket for Ukraine, but with patches missing.
03:35And even that blanket may not be acceptable to Russia.
03:39Moscow insists that it must be part of any talks on Ukraine security.
03:43Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has emphasized on it.
03:45He called Ukraine security guarantees without Russia a road to nowhere.
03:50We cannot agree with the fact that it is now proposed to resolve collective security issues
04:00without the Russian Federation.
04:02This will not work.
04:04We have already explained more than once that Russia does not overstate its interests.
04:09But we will ensure our legitimate interests firmly and harshly.
04:14And I am sure that in the West, and above all in the United States,
04:19they understand perfectly well that seriously discussing security issues
04:23without the Russian Federation is in a utopia, a road to nowhere.
04:28Russia has even suggested China for the plan.
04:35It says Beijing should be among Ukraine's guarantors.
04:38So Moscow's stand is quite clear at this point.
04:40It may not accept such a plan.
04:44So what happens now?
04:45For 70 years, Europe outsourced its security to Washington.
04:49Now, with war raging on its doorstep, it must finally do the job itself.
04:53Will Europe rise to the occasion?
04:57Can it build a credible security shield for Ukraine?
05:00Or will the cracks in this coalition leave Kiev exposed?
05:04That's yet to be seen.
05:05We'll see how this plan shapes up in the coming days.
05:07But one thing is quite clear.
05:09America has passed the buck.
05:11And Europe is now holding it, whether it likes it or not.
05:23America has passed the buck.
05:39America has passed the buck.
05:41And Europe is now holding it.
05:44So how about you?
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