00:00Geopolitics these days looks a lot like a messy situationship.
00:08There are vague promises, mixed signals and plenty of, let's see where this goes.
00:14Take the Ukraine war for example.
00:16First, the US said it would be involved in guaranteeing Ukraine's security.
00:21Then, Kiev pressed Washington on this.
00:23It wanted a clear signal, a yes or no.
00:26Instead, what followed was hedging.
00:27America now says it will help, but Europe will have to do the heavy lifting.
00:34Well, I don't think we should carry the burden here.
00:36I think that we should be helpful if it's necessary to stop the war and to stop the killing.
00:41But I think that we should expect, and the president certainly expects Europe to play the leading role here.
00:45And just like that, the burden has shifted across the Atlantic.
00:49The US was the anchor of Europe's defense, but it is now stepping back.
00:53So Europe has to step up.
00:54It has to guarantee Ukraine's security.
00:57But who in Europe is ready to step up?
01:01And what happens if Russia refuses to play along?
01:05That's what we'll discuss tonight.
01:06For decades, Europe's security has rested on one simple fact, that America always shows up.
01:13That's what they counted on.
01:14From NATO to Kosovo to Afghanistan, the US was the backbone.
01:18But Trump's Washington is different.
01:21There are no more open-ended commitments.
01:24Instead, the White House's message is quite blunt.
01:26Europe, this is your continent.
01:28It is your neighborhood.
01:29And hence, security is your responsibility.
01:33Ukraine has long hoped for NATO membership, or at least something that looks like it.
01:39Sort of like an Article 5.
01:41Article 5 of NATO, which says, an attack on one is an attack on all.
01:45That sort of security is what Ukraine was looking for.
01:48But Donald Trump shut that door.
01:50And that leaves Kiev with a fuzzy alternative.
01:54Some form of coalition guarantee cobbled together by willing European states.
01:59It does sound reassuring, until you realize that guarantees without the US are wobbly.
02:06The credibility is less, and the deterrence is shakier.
02:09And Russia knows it.
02:11This is the private conversation that we're all going to have about what's necessary to stop the war.
02:16But no matter what happens, no matter what form this takes,
02:20the Europeans are going to have to take the lion's share of the burden.
02:23It's their continent.
02:24It's their security.
02:25And the president's been very clear, they're going to have to step up here.
02:28So what is the plan right now?
02:31The so-called Coalition of the Willing is already hatching plans.
02:34There are three camps in this.
02:36The first one consists of those who are willing.
02:40France and the UK are leading this camp.
02:42They are promising troops.
02:43They want to train Ukrainian soldiers.
02:45There is even talk of boots on the ground.
02:48The Baltics, that's Lithuania and Estonia, are also eager.
02:52They see Ukraine's survival as their own.
02:56That's the first camp.
02:57Then there are those who are on the fence.
03:00The maybes.
03:01Sweden and Latvia are part of this camp.
03:03They aren't sure of signing up for actual deterrence.
03:06And the third category is that of countries that are vehemently against this plan.
03:11The country is saying no.
03:13Germany is among them.
03:14It is ready to write checks, but it is not willing to send troops to Ukraine.
03:19Same with Italy.
03:20It does not agree with this plan.
03:22Hungary and Poland are also against it.
03:23They want to focus on the NATO flank.
03:27So basically, Europe itself is divided on this idea.
03:30It is almost like a security blanket for Ukraine, but with patches missing.
03:35And even that blanket may not be acceptable to Russia.
03:39Moscow insists that it must be part of any talks on Ukraine security.
03:43Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has emphasized on it.
03:45He called Ukraine security guarantees without Russia a road to nowhere.
03:50We cannot agree with the fact that it is now proposed to resolve collective security issues
04:00without the Russian Federation.
04:02This will not work.
04:04We have already explained more than once that Russia does not overstate its interests.
04:09But we will ensure our legitimate interests firmly and harshly.
04:14And I am sure that in the West, and above all in the United States,
04:19they understand perfectly well that seriously discussing security issues
04:23without the Russian Federation is in a utopia, a road to nowhere.
04:28Russia has even suggested China for the plan.
04:35It says Beijing should be among Ukraine's guarantors.
04:38So Moscow's stand is quite clear at this point.
04:40It may not accept such a plan.
04:44So what happens now?
04:45For 70 years, Europe outsourced its security to Washington.
04:49Now, with war raging on its doorstep, it must finally do the job itself.
04:53Will Europe rise to the occasion?
04:57Can it build a credible security shield for Ukraine?
05:00Or will the cracks in this coalition leave Kiev exposed?
05:04That's yet to be seen.
05:05We'll see how this plan shapes up in the coming days.
05:07But one thing is quite clear.
05:09America has passed the buck.
05:11And Europe is now holding it, whether it likes it or not.
05:23America has passed the buck.
05:39America has passed the buck.
05:41And Europe is now holding it.
05:44So how about you?
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