00:00Hi everybody, this is Mike Brennan here at the National Hurricane Center. It's just after 11 a.m.
00:03Eastern Time on Monday, August 18th, coming on this morning with the latest on still very powerful
00:07Hurricane Aaron located here just to the northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands, about 110 miles
00:14north of Grand Turk, restrengthening this morning to a powerful Category 4 hurricane. Maximum
00:20sustained winds now around 140 miles per hour, and the hurricane is now moving off towards the
00:26west-northwest now at about 10 miles per hour. So while the core of Aaron is remaining
00:30to the east and northeast of the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas, we're still seeing some impacts
00:35here. We have tropical storm warnings in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos
00:39Islands, tropical storm watch for the central Bahamas. So there's that risk of tropical storm
00:44conditions as Aaron continues to grow in size. Also the potential for some flooding rainfall,
00:48two to four inches, isolated amounts as high as six inches across portions of those southeastern
00:53Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands as we go through the day today and into Tuesday.
00:57Now if we zoom out a little bit and look at the forecast track of Aaron as we go through the
01:02week, we are still expecting this northwestward motion followed by a turn to the north as we go
01:07through Tuesday and Wednesday, and then an acceleration taking the center of Aaron northeastward
01:12out into the North Atlantic as we go from Thursday into Thursday night and Friday. And while the forecast
01:17track of Aaron still has the center of the storm remaining between the North Carolina Outer Banks and
01:21Bermuda as we go from Wednesday into Thursday morning, the track has shifted westward since
01:26yesterday, which will bring a more enhanced risk of some of those peripheral impacts into portions of
01:32the Outer Banks of North Carolina. But again, Aaron is expected to grow rather dramatically in size.
01:38If you look at the wave height field forecast as we get into Wednesday night and Thursday morning,
01:43these dark colors here are significant wave heights in excess of 20 to 30 feet, even exceeding 50 feet
01:49near the center of Aaron. So this is going to make for very dangerous marine conditions across all of
01:53the western Atlantic and increase the risk for dangerous and life-threatening surf and rip current
01:58conditions across almost the entire U.S. east coast. And by tomorrow, everywhere you see in red here,
02:04so basically from South Florida through Georgia, North and South Carolina, up into the mid-Atlantic states,
02:09southern New England with a high risk of life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. So these are going to be
02:14situations where you're not going to want to be in the ocean and you're going to want to heed any
02:18precautions given by your local officials. Pay attention to any beach warning flags. And these
02:23dangerous surf conditions are going to continue throughout much of the upcoming week. So it's
02:27just not going to be a very safe environment to be in the ocean. And just a reminder again, even
02:32though the weather can be nice at the coast, it can still have dangerous surf and rip current
02:36conditions from a hurricane that's well offshore like we're going to see with Aaron. So never assume
02:40the ocean is safe even if the weather is nice. And please go to weather.gov slash beach for the
02:45latest information on those surf and rip current conditions. As we back up and want to zoom in
02:50here, this is a slide from the National Weather Service office in Moorhead City, North Carolina,
02:54showing some of the highest impacts we're expecting to see from Aaron here along the North Carolina
02:59Outer Banks. So where we're going to see significant, that wave action is going to cause significant
03:04surf zone roughness, beach erosion, ocean overwash, especially along portions of North Carolina,
03:11Highway 12 out here in the Outer Banks. So this area between Ocracoke up to Oregon Inlet is where
03:16we're expecting to see some of the most dangerous conditions along the oceanfront. And evacuations
03:21have been ordered for Ocracoke Island and Hatteras Island in North Carolina. So please see more
03:26information from your local emergency and government officials in these areas. Heed those evacuation
03:30orders if you've been asked to leave. And again, you can always get more information from your local
03:34National Weather Service office at weather.gov. Now, I did mention the track moving a little closer to
03:39North Carolina, and that is bringing that risk of tropical storm conditions to the Outer Banks by
03:45late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. So we could see a tropical storm and storm surge watch
03:51issued for portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks as soon as later today or tonight. And there
03:55is also a risk of tropical storm conditions on Bermuda as we get from Wednesday night into Thursday
04:01morning, again, with the large size of air and even with the core of the storm passing well to the
04:05north. We could see some impacts there. So as we wrap up here on this Monday morning, here are those
04:10key messages on Aaron. We're going to continue to see heavy rainfall through today over portions of
04:15Hispaniola and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and portions of the Bahamas could produce some
04:20flash and urban flooding are possible in those areas. Tropical storm conditions expected in those
04:25tropical storm warning areas in the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas today with tropical storm
04:30conditions possible in the central Bahamas as we go from later today into Tuesday in that watch area.
04:36Aaron's expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much of the
04:40western Atlantic basin, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, up into Atlantic Canada. An interest in the
04:45Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda could see some more direct impacts from Aaron as we get into
04:50the middle portions of the week. We could see tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding possible
04:54along portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning in the next day or so and continuing into
05:00Wednesday. So please stay tuned for more information on Aaron here. Come back to us at the National
05:04Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov. Thanks for joining us. I'm Mike Brennan.
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