00:00But let's get to Minnesota today.
00:01It's Detroit.
00:02This Minnesota paddocks on the mound.
00:03It's not a great pitcher here.
00:04Adams is on the mound here.
00:06The right-handed pitcher for the Minnesota Twins.
00:08How long is he going to go?
00:08I don't know.
00:09How many runs he's going to give up?
00:10I don't know that either.
00:12967, 968.
00:13But I do got a hint.
00:14210 start today.
00:15This total, eight and a half.
00:16Now we're seeing nines across the board.
00:18It's a warm day in Minnesota, but not really the wind helping you out that much.
00:22It's blowing in from center field.
00:23But if anybody's ever seen the Minnesota Twins Stadium,
00:26it's real high up with bleachers, like, basically all the way around
00:29where you don't get that open center field that's going to have that open wind
00:32and jug.
00:33Huge, huge scoreboard out there.
00:35But this is a favorite here for Detroit that went up overnight, Tom,
00:38from a minus 25 to a minus 150 and plus at some outlets right now.
00:42I'm just looking at this game for me in Detroit
00:44and blind betting the Detroit Tigers at the plate today
00:47because the one thing I do know, you're not getting a good starting pitcher.
00:51Like, remember we talked about, like, Urania was on the mound last week.
00:53He's like, I should be able to hammer that guy.
00:55I don't know how he danced around raindrops for, like, 60 pitches in two innings
00:58and gave up, like, a single run or no runs at that point.
01:01I think they get bounced around today.
01:02I think we get runs because why?
01:05Paddock's not even a good pitcher, Tom.
01:06How did we not get nine runs today?
01:08We really should.
01:10The one thing I want to note is I also saw Travis Adams listed as the starter,
01:15but now both Fandle and DraftKings have Thomas Hatch listed as the starter.
01:22Yeah.
01:22So, whether it's Adams or Hatch, for Hatch, he only has 9.2 innings pitched this year
01:28between two teams.
01:29Last year, he wasn't even in the majors.
01:32He was pitching in Japan.
01:33Two years ago, in 2023, he had a 4-4-7 XFIP.
01:37When it comes to Travis Adams, this year he's been with the Twins the entire time.
01:415-1-3 XFIP.
01:42He comes in with a 19.6% strike area and 2.05 home runs per nine.
01:47Obviously, Paddock was traded from the Twins to the Tigers earlier this year,
01:51and Paddock is also not a good pitcher.
01:53His ERA at 4-7, 4-5-2 XFIP.
01:564-5-2 XFIP for him.
01:58Strikeout rate at 17.4%.
02:00When we're looking at the lineups, even though the wind is blowing in,
02:03I think we can make a case for at least the power hitters on both sides.
02:07If you give me, maybe not Glaber for the power, but Glaber, Kerry Carpenter,
02:11Riley Green, Spencer Torkelson, plus a Larnik, Buxton, Clemens combo,
02:15I think we're working with some gas there.
02:18No, we're definitely working with some gas there.
02:20Like, even like, oh, no, Hatch is going to be in.
02:21It's like when you find out, like, well, I'm expecting a really bad pitcher,
02:24and Nathan Eovaldi shows up as the star.
02:26Like, oh, man, come on now.
02:28Like, we had this game boxed out.
02:29But you take a look at, like, Travis Adams or whoever comes in.
02:32It's like, Adams is bad.
02:33So let me show it down.
02:34So let's go see what Hatch is.
02:35They almost look identical to Adams' numbers.
02:39Like, his 43 batters in space, Tom, in the past 30 days.
02:42A 222 ISO and a 379 weighted on base percentage walks everybody
02:46and can't strike anybody out.
02:48Yeah.
02:48He has 9.2 innings on the entire season.
02:51He has an 18% walk rate and a 13% striker.
02:54His walk rate is higher than a striker rate.
02:57Love to see it.
02:58Like, now I'm getting that, like, feeling like, ooh, man,
03:00we just want to jump into this game.
03:01We want to hammer this game, and maybe we can at this point.
03:03But I like that.
03:04I think that's going to match up well.
03:05Paddock versus Adams, eight and a half.
03:07And by the way, nines are on the board at most outlets here.
03:10It looks like DraftKings does an eight and a half and a minus 122.
03:12I would be really surprised, Tom, if we don't get runs in this ballgame today.
03:16And that's the expectations here.
03:18White Sox and the Royals.
03:20Martin versus Bergett.
03:21By the way, Bergett's been decent here in his early Major League Baseball career,
03:24even switching teams.
03:25Martin on the side for the Chicago White Sox, a favorite.
03:28Overnight time for Kansas City.
03:30Minus 165-ish.
03:31Now we're seeing it drop a little bit.
03:32You get minus 140s out here, but also minus 156,
03:35depending on where you're shopping at.
03:36Make sure you get the best possible pricing you can.
03:38A total in this one, too, Tom, 10 runs.
03:40So it's nine and a half takes 10 to win this one.
03:42I do think there's a chance that we can get runs.
03:44Why?
03:44It's hot as all get out in Kansas City.
03:47The bullpen there for Chicago, not great.
03:50Bergett can get hit at times.
03:51Chicago was dead at the plate, so I think the eighth inning yesterday
03:54was played at two runs.
03:55Maybe the ninth inning they played at the two runs that they got.
03:57I'm interested to see this play out, but I do think Kansas City hits in.
03:59My boy Vinny P's back.
04:00He's feeling good.
04:01Yes, let's go.
04:02He is, and a little spoiler, I may or may not like the White Sox today
04:09as a potential plus money play.
04:13Looking at Bergett, again, this is his first year in the majors.
04:16He's got a .287 ERA.
04:18He's got a .46 XFIP.
04:20He is over-performed by two full-run runs.
04:23I will also note, Babbitt, batting average of balls in play for him
04:26is at .208 this year, which is unbelievable.
04:28If we look at just the entire league, the league average for pitchers,
04:32starting, believer, doesn't matter.
04:34The league average for Babbitt this year is .289.
04:37He's over-performing the Babbitt by almost a full 100 points,
04:41and he's over-performing XFIP compared to ERA.
04:44So I'm not loving backing Bergett at minus money when it's scorching hot there,
04:49and if we're going to get runs, it's going to be higher variance.
04:52So I think I want to lean into the White Sox.
04:54Also, do you trust the Royals to consistently put up runs
04:58even in the best possible circumstance, Stani, against the White Sox with heat?
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