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  • 5 months ago
Transcript
00:00Let's get to the Dodgers.
00:01Warmer temperatures there as well.
00:02It's Toronto and it's L.A.
00:04It's Lauer, the lefty, going to go up against Tyler Glass now.
00:06929, 930 on the rotation, a 410 start.
00:09How about this favorite?
00:10190s overnight for the Dodgers.
00:12Dropping slightly here.
00:13185s, 186s in the marketplace.
00:15A total of nine, Tom.
00:16Drops down to eight and a half.
00:18Lauer, Glass now in L.A.
00:21This is a really, really interesting matchup.
00:24So Eric Lauer last year didn't pitch in the majors.
00:28He pitched in the KBO because in 2023, he was terrible.
00:33He had an ERA at six and a half.
00:35His XFIP was 558.
00:37This year in 18 games or 18 games overall, and you look back since April, 12 games started, I should say.
00:46One time, he's allowed three earned runs.
00:48Every other start, he's been at two earned runs or fewer.
00:52He has been sensational this year.
00:53And I'll be honest, I faded him the majority of the starts just because I don't think he's a good pitcher.
00:58And you look at some of his underlying metrics, he shouldn't be a good pitcher.
01:00So the question becomes is, has all this just been smoke and mirrors and or he's still a bad pitcher?
01:07And will the Dodgers lineup actually come through and prove that he's not a good pitcher?
01:11Because Donnie, some of his numbers are unbelievable.
01:13A 259 ERA.
01:15He has a sub-four XFIP at 391.
01:17Now, on the other side, much of the same can be said about Glassnow, who we know is a very good pitcher, but he's obviously doesn't have a big sample size.
01:24I will say in his three recent starts, 101, 84, and 106 pitches.
01:29So at least I'm confident that he has the length to get deeper in the game to flex the 12 and seven strikeouts that we know we can get from him.
01:36So I understand where the money line is what it is for the Dodgers.
01:39They're always going to be super heavy favorites.
01:41But 184 is just a bit much for me when Lauer has vastly exceeded expectations on the other side.
01:48He really has.
01:48Like his K rates decent over the past 30 days, doesn't walk anybody, doesn't give up power ISO-wise.
01:52He is a fly ball pitcher, which will get you in trouble.
01:55But some of the big things we talk about, because barrel rates go both ways, Tom.
01:59Barrel rate in the season for Lauer, 315 batters he's faced, 6%.
02:02Last 30 days, 2.8%.
02:04To lefties, it's a zero over the past month here.
02:07So if you're not giving up barrels, you're probably not giving up home runs here.
02:10And it's not a great-looking lineup, contrary to what we believe on a day-to-day basis for the Dodgers up against left-handed pitching.
02:15They haven't hit left-handed pitching all that well over the past month.
02:18Positives, 84 degrees, 8-mile-an-hour wind blowing out.
02:21No marine layer in the afternoon in Los Angeles.
02:23We'll see if that ball certainly does travel and carry.
02:25Game tonight, Shota Imanaga versus Sonny Gray.
02:29Battle of the Aces on the mound.
02:30That's the Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals.
02:329-0-7, 9-0-8 on the rotation, a 7-10 start.
02:35Favorite here, slightly towards the Cubs.
02:37Overnight, minus 120, still sitting at around a minus 120 price.
02:40And an 8 across the board.
02:42Imanaga Gray, Cubs, Cards.
02:45You know, this is one of the games where I wish it was different pitchers.
02:50I wish it was in Chicago.
02:52I wish there was wind blowing out in Chicago.
02:54I wish there were so many different things where it's – I'm almost just saying, like, under and move on.
02:58Like, I respect Sonny Gray and Imanaga enough that the pitching matchup – the hitting matchups don't exceed the pitching matchups.
03:05And the Cubs have been struggling a whole lot at the plate outside of yesterday's roles.
03:09Like, they just haven't been playing a whole lot of great baseball, which is why we've seen them lose the divisional need.
03:13Obviously, the Brewers have been playing fantastic.
03:15But, like, they're hit – Kyle Tucker and PCA, like, they aren't having these explosive games as we saw in the first half of the season.
03:20Like, we're getting good stuff out of Happ and Michael Bush and Swanson in games, but it's not all together.
03:25And I respect Sonny Gray enough that they could come through with a win, and this game ends, like, 2-1, 3-2, really, on either side.
03:31And the same thing can be said about the Cardinals, who just don't have a good lineup overall.
03:34And Imanaga's a good enough pitcher to kind of keep them quiet tonight, and we just don't see runs being scored.
03:40So, under before anything tonight.
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