00:00Give me three people that are leaving the yard today, in your opinion.
00:04Yeah, let's start off with the future AL Rookie of the Year, Nick Kurtz, going up against Kate
00:10Povich. This is a lefty-lefty matchup, but I'm not too worried about it. Kurtz still has a 200
00:15ISO versus lefties overall in the season. We look to Kate Povich. He's absolutely terrible
00:20versus lefties, 2.04 home runs per nine allowed to left-handed hitters this year. That's due to
00:25a 47.9% fly ball rate and a 35% hard contact rate allowed. Let's then turn to the Royals
00:32with Vinny Pasquatino going up against Jose Urena, of course, is another match we'd like
00:37versus righties this year. Vinny P, 43% fly ball rate. He's got 32% hard contact rate. It's a little
00:42bit lower, but it does have a solid 184 ISO. Obviously, Urena is terrible, allowing 2.63
00:47home runs per nine versus lefties. We absolutely like that. Then let's turn to Andrew Vaughn of
00:52the Milwaukee Brewers up at 425, going up against Sean Minaya. We look to Vaughn this
00:57year versus right, excuse me, versus lefties this year. 43 fly ball rate, 36% hard contact
01:03rate, which we love. It's only a 141 ISO. I understand that's not amazing by any stretch,
01:08but Sean Minaya, over a 200 ISO or nearly a 200 ISO allowed versus righties this year.
01:16The power is there for Vaughn, and we have a great spot for him.
01:20Let's go, Vaughn. Three bombs there. Look, let's grab one of those, man. You are living
01:24the good life here. Switch it over for me. Donnie Zinger say got a three-pack here. Going
01:27to start early in the day with Kansas City. I do like that lineup a lot. Salvador Perez,
01:31last 72 at-bats going up against right-handed pitching. That's a 333 ISO and a 440 weighted
01:35on base percentage. Urania is probably going to go two or three innings, so you're figuring
01:38multiple at-bats against random right-handed pitchers here for Salvador Perez. He's going to get
01:43that done. Now, if we flip it over to Seattle, let's take a look at, how about this?
01:47Jorge, excuse me, what's the, Julio Rodriguez, apologize. A 310 ISO power number and a 395
01:53weighted on base percentage of his last 76 at-bats against right-handed pitching. Who
01:57comes to town? Adrian Howes with that ultra-low K percentage here. Make contact, Julio. Get
02:03me into that outfield here, and then we're going to save it up, and sometimes you say,
02:07you know what? The price point isn't great, and I always take a look at those price points
02:10that the book just doesn't want you on these. Did you know Corbin Caramel's homered in three
02:13straight ballgames right now? We're going to make it four. Why? His last 52 at-bats
02:17against right-handed pitching. A 283 ISO, a 342 weighted on base percentage. He's probably
02:21going to get six at-bats, even though today, Tom, he is with the home team here. I expect
02:26another home run for him. They get four in a row. That's at a plus 250 price. So plus 350,
02:31plus 560, plus 250 for me in the home run marketplace here as we go along. Now, Tom,
02:38this is where we get to the big news, the madness. Whose dogs are barking out there?
02:51Bombs away. We gave it to you. A six-pack right there, Tommy. Who is your big dog, baby? Who is
02:55it today? Oh, look at that price. Look at this price. The Houston Astros at plus 176. Like I said,
03:02there is no doubt that on paper, Max Freed is a better pitcher compared to Jason Alexander.
03:09As we discussed when we handicapped that game, Max Freed has been struggling a bit in these recent
03:13games, but seeing the Yankees as over a $2 favorite with the struggles that they've had,
03:19again, in the combination of pitching, offense, defense, and then bullpen, if we want to break
03:24down the different types of pitching, there is no reason the Yankees should be a $2 favorite,
03:28as we talked about. It should be like minus 150, somewhere around there. So to get a
03:32good Houston Astros team at a nearly $2 price at 176, we have to be interested in this. Despite
03:38the fact that Alexander, I expect him to give up four or five runs, the Astros should be able to do
03:44their part and get those runs across the board. Because at a certain point, we just have a,
03:48we have a chance to play the other side of the Yankees, get them at plus money. If the Astros
03:52jump out to lead, we got plus money on both sides, we cash a winner automatically. Big tickets right
03:57there to plus 176. Love to see it there. Can the Astros hang on? They should have hung on yesterday.
04:01They couldn't. Bullpen gave it up. Yankees secured that one. We'll see what happens today
04:04in the Bronx. I'm going to Sunday night baseball tonight. It's going to be simple for me. I'm
04:09going to take the Cardinals. Why are they the home team? I think they have the better pitcher
04:11and a slightly better price there than laying a minus 110 or minus 115 plus 104 price today
04:16for the Cardinals. You take a look at Sonny Gray, last 43 and two thirds innings pitch. Tom,
04:20high ERA, but really low exit. It's tonight. The Cardinals come away with a victory.
04:24Hey, I like them apples. Hey, if we combine them, Tom, it's plus 180, making myself feel a little
04:28bit better with your plus 176.
Comments