Tigers Face the Angels in High-Stakes MLB Game Today

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00:00Oh, the Tigers right now.

00:02Looking in the rearview mirror.

00:03Who's behind them?

00:04Oh, no, Tom Vecchio.

00:05It's the Guardians right there.

00:07They need a win today going up against Jack Kohanowitz.

00:09That's the perfect recipe typically to get your offense going

00:12and back in the good graces here.

00:14919, 920 on the rotation.

00:16A 140 start today.

00:17The Angels with Kohanowitz on the mound going up against Casey Mize,

00:19the right-handed pitcher for the Detroit Tigers.

00:21A favorite over a month, overnight, I should say.

00:23Minus 200 in that range.

00:25Dropped a little bit, Tom.

00:26Minus 188s, minus 185s, minus 187s in the sports.

00:30Betting markets today.

00:31Nine as a total.

00:32Some 9.5s are out.

00:33Their expectations are for runs.

00:35Why?

00:35Because Kohanowitz is out there.

00:37Every time he's up, Tom, I just feel like I need to fade that guy.

00:40And if you need to get your offensive doldrums out of the way

00:42and back into the win column, this is a perfect guy to do it against.

00:46Yeah, I guess this is like the old boxing saying.

00:49It's like you need a tomato can out there, just like something to beat up on

00:52to get the mojo back on in the right way.

00:55And Kohanowitz is that pitcher for the Angels.

00:58He's got a .585 ERA on the season.

01:01We know we don't love ERA here.

01:02Let's turn to his extra ball.

01:03That's at .491.

01:04It's still terrible.

01:06His walk rate is coming in, was it this season, at 11.3%.

01:10His strike area is at 15%.

01:12He was sent down to the minors earlier in July to call back up

01:15because he's just a bad pitcher overall.

01:17We should be seeing runs, runs, runs.

01:19And it really starts off at the top of the lineup.

01:21Now, Donnie, if you gave me some HRR combo of Glaber, Kerry Carpenter,

01:27Riley Green, and Spencer Torkelson, like three of those guys to come through

01:31and get you close to even money, I think that's where we should be seeing.

01:34Now, Casey Mines on the other side, obviously, former top prospect.

01:37He hasn't been amazing this season.

01:38Like, I think he's been good.

01:39He hasn't been certainly amazing.

01:41The strikeouts aren't super high.

01:42The home runs can be a little bit of an issue.

01:43So I don't mind seeing a little bit of scoring this game overall.

01:47But I do think the Tigers come away with the win.

01:49It's not going to be easy.

01:50But, again, if there's any guy to get runs across the board, it's Kahanowitz.

01:54Exactly.

01:55He's been really bad.

01:56And I understand this from, like, a handicapping procedure here, right?

01:58A lot of people, like, it's ERAs.

01:59It's batting averages.

02:00It's RBI.

02:01It's ISO.

02:02It's weighted on base percentage.

02:03Like, a lot of that stuff, Tom, is what has happened in the past.

02:05Like, yeah, he made great contact.

02:06He got a base hit, and that's what happens.

02:08When I look at Kahanowitz, like, there are some things that look at a pitcher

02:11where you can even take away, like, weighted on base percentage against

02:13or ISO against because the opportunities are really what you're looking for, Tom.

02:16I know you take a look at BAPIP a lot.

02:18It's like, hold on, man.

02:18The guy's making hard contact, and his BAPIP's like a 143.

02:21You know that's going to change because if you hit the ball hard,

02:24sooner or later it's going to find the spot to land you're going to get base knocks.

02:27Like, if Kahanowitz has a 10% K rate over his past month in Major League Baseball

02:31and a 13% walk rate, that means nobody's striking out the ball is in play

02:35and you're giving free passes.

02:37And then you take a look at the hard contact rate, Tom.

02:3964% over the past month.

02:41That means when the 50% of the batter's time that make contact are driving the baseball,

02:46which if he's like some of those, you know, exit velocity numbers,

02:48this is called 100, right?

02:50Oh, he had a great game.

02:51He had a shutout.

02:51Well, if I told you he didn't strike anybody out, walked four guys,

02:54and every bat was hit hard, but they went to guys,

02:56oh, I can't take it the next game because Kahanowitz is lights out last game.

02:59No.

02:59Sometimes you have to throw some of those numbers out and just say,

03:02opportunities are all what we care about at this point, Tom,

03:04where it's not about ERA.

03:05It's not about weighted on base percentage.

03:07If you're not striking anybody out, walking guys,

03:08and giving up hard contact rates,

03:10you're going to get beat up long-term in baseball.

03:12You really are.

03:13There are other stats that indicate that.

03:16So, if you really wanted to dig into it,

03:17you could look at his called strike and swinging percentage,

03:23which is at 23%, which is absolutely terrible.

03:25You could also look at his Z contact,

03:27which is the contact rate that the hitters make of pitches inside the strike zone.

03:30So, he's not fooling anyone, right?

03:33So, that's to your point.

03:34If they're inside the zone, they're getting hit because he doesn't strike anyone out,

03:37and if they're not in the zone, that means they're out of the zone,

03:40and he's just walking people with a 13% strike rate,

03:43therefore giving you extra chances and extra chances to score runs.

03:46Like, it is, he's a terrible pitcher.

03:48I love it.

03:49And what me and Tom are talking about there is you sort of meld those statistics together.

03:52You don't want to sort of heavy lean to one side,

03:54but sometimes you save yourself when, like, again,

03:56I get back to those batting numbers, batting average of balls in play.

03:59Like, if it's a 500, well, if he's not making great contact,

04:02what, is he getting bloop singles?

04:03Well, that's going to change soon.

04:04But, again, if your numbers are low, but you're making hard contact consistently,

04:07those numbers go higher.

04:08Same thing with pitchers.

04:09If you're giving opportunities to Major League Baseball batters time and time again

04:12to make hard contact, you're going to get beat up.

04:15We'll see what happens today.

04:15The Detroit Tigers get back into the win column.

04:18921, 922, a 210 start today.

04:20Cleveland and Chicago.

04:21That's the White Sox.

04:22We'll set the table for this one, Tom.

04:23Chaconis on the mound going up against Martin.

04:26135s overnight as a favorite here towards the Cleveland Guardians.

04:29That's downshifted a little bit.

04:31130s, 128s in the marketplace right now.

04:33And a total up from 8.5 to 9 here.

04:36Cleveland looking to make that charge, Tom.

04:37Before we head to break, what do you think about Cleveland here?

04:40Another win today?

04:41Maybe a loss by the Tigers and it's full panic?

04:43Geez.

04:44The more and more I think about it, like the Cleveland, they're hitting right now.

04:48How are we not interested in over 4.5 runs or some type of ult with them 3.5

04:52with another team with 3.5 get us close to even money?

04:55Because they're moving right now.

04:56The lineup looks good.

04:57We weren't super confident in them prior to the break, but they got some hitters now

05:02against the White Sox.

05:03I think they get some runs across the board.

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