Bitcoin Price Elliott Wave Price Update_ Understanding the Bullish and Bearish BTC Scenarios (7)

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Transcript

00:00Hello and welcome to another update video on Bitcoin. I want to start you today on the daily

00:06time frame just to highlight where things could be going and that here in this particular move

00:13to the upside the price might indeed be on its way in a still unfolding C wave which started

00:22on the 22nd of June. So if a C wave to the upside started then we should see a five wave

00:29move to the upside overall. Five waves to the upside. This could unfold as an impulse

00:37or we might be dealing with a so-called diagonal pattern. Now in an impulse we want to see rapid

00:44movements not overlapping price action and we want to see the market move to round about 130k or a

00:53little higher. This scenario remains valid but really this last swing low which formed on the

00:59weekend should hold because otherwise this pullback will be too deep for an impulse and it

01:06would rather look like a diagonal pattern and if it's a diagonal pattern then it's likely the yellow

01:11count which means one more low would open the door to a deeper pullback but we could still explore the

01:17option of a diagonal pattern. Just please note that if an impulse morphs into a diagonal pattern then the

01:26structure itself will shift and the move to the upside will become less reliable and probabilities for a much

01:34larger correction will increase which means maybe the top is already in and so on and so on and so on but we would

01:40still explore a diagonal pattern and there are some key levels then to watch even if we're dealing with

01:47a diagonal pattern. Next support levels are 107,630 then we've got 105,230 and 98,480 dollars. I am so far not

01:59convinced by the reaction to the upside we have seen from the Sunday low. The reaction to the upset is not

02:06really aggressive enough for really an impulsive start of a fifth wave here but we keep an open

02:14mind. I mean I'll share with you on the smaller time frame now what happened overnight so let's go to

02:20the shorter time frame and you might see it here. I think probabilities for the orange scenario which I

02:27presented to you yesterday have increased dramatically so remember what we were watching for yesterday two

02:33scenarios wave one wave two and then we explored the idea that maybe this here is a one two one two

02:42setup which could lead to an upset breakout well it did but not a decisive breakout not a sustained breakout

02:48we got rejected in resistance yeah so what I shared with you in yesterday's last video was that I'm working

02:55on the assumption that we might break micro support so I shared with you an alternative scenario give you

03:02targets basically if we break below micro support micro support got broken that's in itself not

03:08necessarily a problem for a direct move to the upset however we also have an overlap here um with what

03:14would have been in yesterday's count actually it was wave one and wave four so yeah we don't want to

03:20we don't want to consider it as an impulse anymore but what you actually see here on the chart

03:24in the white scenario is still the idea that the move to the upside might morph into maybe a diagonal

03:31pattern so that we have a one two setup and maybe this could turn into another one two setup so I'm

03:36just showing you here how the next five wave move up could look like yeah so if we get another five wave

03:43move up then it might be this it might be this um we could even see this as potentially a wedge pattern

03:50but I don't I don't let's let's say believe in this wave count I don't believe that we go up more

03:55directly necessarily um at least it would require further evidence I need more price data yesterday

04:02we had a nice impulsive move the price did throughout the day what we wanted it to do but then it broke

04:07micro support so that means it's a warning we might just dip back into this support zone

04:14okay it has just become more probable and it would be confirmed further with a break below 114 330

04:20I'm still overall considering upside and these are the two scenarios how it could happen either more

04:26directly then this might form another wave one um the problem is that this would become a little bit

04:32too long right so we would then have a one two one two setup maybe but I intentionally leave the

04:40labeling off because this will rather than look like an a b c that's not great okay so we would we would

04:47need to really um we need to see how it how it looks all right um what has become more probable is

04:54another test of this support area down there that's just fibonacci support not an invalidation point

05:00the invalidation point is the august low um at 111 000 yeah 950 dollars um for a scenario in which we're

05:09tracking a wave one and then a overshooting b wave c wave so in this case

05:17it is it is probable that we're going to reach the 100 extension level um at 113 326 so if we break

05:25out of this wedge pattern to the downside it might take us into this blue zone uh that would simply

05:32mean the price would need to re-attempt another upside breakout i think that would actually be a good

05:36thing because whatever happened here from the tuesday low is not impulsive anymore so it's questionable so

05:42another reset reset and retest re-attempt or attempt to to break out would actually be good because

05:50this is not impulsive i'm not quite sure what it will turn into but i can tell you that so far the

05:56market has not been able to break above our resistance area so we continue to monitor price action but

06:03um it i think we want to see a little bit more price data about what this is i don't have a clear long

06:10trade setup here anymore yeah um we obviously had a micro one two set up here on tuesday we had a one

06:16two set up here now it's a bit of a waiting game i think if we dip back into this zone um this would

06:22provide another so-called one two setup at the moment bit of a bit of a gray area a bit of a waiting

06:27game for further price data i'm just tracking essentially until the next setup emerges so that's

06:33the update on bitcoin i hope you like the update if you did please hit the like button leave a comment

06:38and subscribe and if you really like the content then please check out the channel membership i also

06:44invite you to join us on x where we are running in a growing community as well feel free to join us

06:51here um you can do that obviously for free it's just a bit more interactive than the youtube comment

06:56section i'll leave a link in the comment section and description so you can check it out for further

07:00updates and so much so on um yeah see you over there thanks so much bye bye

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