Bitcoin Price Elliott Wave Price Update_ Understanding the Bullish and Bearish BTC Scenarios (4)

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Transcript

00:00Hello, hello, and welcome to another update video on Bitcoin.

00:04Yeah, I'm here on the daily chart just to show you that the market has formed a three-wave pullback so far

00:10from the swing high that formed in autumn high territory on the 14th of July.

00:16The pullback is a three-wave move down.

00:19And what I find quite interesting is that the price has just retested the previous breakout point,

00:26which is not exactly bearish, right?

00:28So we have retested the previous all-time high from the 21st, 22nd of May.

00:34That's around 112K.

00:37The market closed the CME gap as well.

00:39And we see a reaction and potentially a small upside impulse.

00:44Now, I did say last week that I would expect this week to see a bounce also in the stock market.

00:50The S&P 500 futures showed a bit of a bounce overnight.

00:56So that can still be valid.

00:59I mean, we do see a bounce.

01:02I made you aware a few days ago when we hit that level there around 112K that a recovery would be likely at least to bounce.

01:10And now we need to see the structure of the bounce to draw, let's say, firmer conclusions.

01:14Because at this point, it's not very clear if we've already bottomed there.

01:18I think the potential exists, but the structure is still too small from a structural point of view,

01:23from an analysis point of view, to really say and confirm that we've bottomed there.

01:27But the potential exists on various charts.

01:30So I'm overall still generally looking for higher.

01:33Remember what I said yesterday.

01:36Bitcoin has been warning about potentially a major top to have been struck.

01:42But only early warning.

01:43Not a confirmation.

01:45And overall, I think the focus on higher prices should still have the primary focus.

01:52So we don't have any meaningful support broken.

01:56We do have initial micro support that broke on the Bitcoin chart, but for example, not on the Ethereum chart.

02:02So I don't see a full-scale collapse yet.

02:04We see three-wave pullbacks across the sector, basically.

02:08Some deeper than initially assumed.

02:11But again, most altcoins still present a corrective pullback, which is in line with what we were looking for,

02:18which is still overall higher prices.

02:20Now, please keep in mind that with altcoins, even if structures are potentially bullish,

02:25a lot of the rallies are corrective in nature, a lot of the recent rallies.

02:30So that remains extremely fragile.

02:33In addition to that, once Bitcoin really forms a top, it doesn't matter if there are bullish setups on the altcoin charts.

02:39If Bitcoin forms a top, at any point, it'll break.

02:44And it'll break.

02:45And also the altcoins will likely break with Bitcoin.

02:48It doesn't matter where these altcoins are in their Elliott Wave structures.

02:52It is what it is.

02:53The altcoins depend on Bitcoin when we're entering large corrections.

02:57This is something that usually happens.

03:00So at the moment, the idea is still that we could be here in an uptrend,

03:04just have a deep pullback, either in the white count, where this can be seen as a wave 4, which is deep, yes,

03:10which is exceptionally deep for a wave 4, but still technically valid.

03:13We have avoided so far a break into the wave 1 price region at around $110,700.

03:22We're also still holding above the previous all-time high.

03:26I mean, not the current one, but the previous one from May.

03:30So, I mean, there isn't really anything that has changed here over the weekend.

03:35But we do have an initial micro 5-wave move up from the Saturday low.

03:42And we're going to take a look at that now on the smaller time frame, because this is interesting.

03:47We have a micro 5-wave move up, which could indicate that this wave 4 has indeed bottomed.

03:52Maybe it's also the yellow scenario.

03:54Maybe this is a B-wave pullback.

03:56It could also have bottomed that B-wave.

03:59It's just that I'm using the B-wave to reflect that.

04:02We could get one more low here.

04:04We don't need that one more low, especially with a 5-wave move up.

04:07You could argue that probabilities for an upside reversal have increased.

04:11But so far, the price has tested the 38.2 retracement level only.

04:18There hasn't really been any confirmation for an upside reversal.

04:22There hasn't been any confirmation for an upside reversal yet, other than a micro 5-wave move up.

04:29We haven't broken above resistance.

04:31And we haven't tested support so that we see that support holds.

04:35But what I can tell you is we have a micro 5-wave move up.

04:38The price is broken back into the price channel.

04:42And the resistance area will be the focus this week, or early this week at least, and the support zone.

04:47So we have support now between 112,650 and 113,870.

04:53That's the micro support zone for a potential wave to pullback.

04:58And as long as this support zone is holding, the overall focus could be on higher prices.

05:04As long as the next pullback is corrective in nature, the focus can be on higher prices.

05:10But it really depends on the structure of the next pullback.

05:12The structure needs to develop a little bit more.

05:15We need to see more price data.

05:17But I can tell you that now that we're entering a new trading week, having a 5-wave move up is somewhat promising.

05:23It's, again, not yet a break above resistance, and more confirmation will be needed.

05:27But it is a micro 5-wave move up.

05:29Now, I can't even say that Wave 2 has started yet.

05:33It's, you know, it's...

05:35We don't really have enough data for that.

05:37But you have very clear parameters to watch.

05:39Okay, we might never reach support.

05:41It's just that, look, we have 5-waves up.

05:43But, so, pullbacks could technically be opportunities as long as they don't break below 112,650.

05:49And if we, in the next step, see a break above resistance at 116,220, then this would be further confirmation that we actually have bottomed.

05:59And then I would say the next focus is on the upper boundary line of the channel, which comes in at around 119,300 dollars.

06:08Also, the area here around these previous swing highs from the 1st of August will be important.

06:14But that's pretty much exactly where that 116,220 level is located as well.

06:20So, the focus this week, or let's say early this week, is probably on higher prices, especially as long as the 112,650 level is holding.

06:29I will adjust this support zone as we climb higher.

06:31So, that's the update on Bitcoin.

06:34I hope you liked the update.

06:35If you did, please hit the like button, leave a comment, and subscribe.

06:39And if you really like the content, then please check out the channel membership.

06:43I also invite you to join us on X for additional updates.

06:46Here you can get additional video updates, updates of coins that we don't normally cover on YouTube, and much more.

06:52You can also ask questions.

06:53I'll be there today, check in on you guys on some questions.

06:58So, follow us there.

06:59Now, I have put the link in the description and in the comment section.

07:05Thanks so much.

07:06Bye-bye.

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