- 7 months ago
AccuWeather Founder & Executive Chair and author of "Invisible Iceberg: When Climate & Weather Shaped History" Dr. Joel Myers and Bernie Rayno explore one of the coldest periods in the past 10,000 years: The little ice age.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Welcome to Invisible Iceberg. I'm Bernie Raynaud.
00:05On today's show, we explore one of the coldest periods in the past 10,000 years,
00:11an event known as the Little Ice Age.
00:13Plus, are we at risk of another Little Ice Age happening again?
00:18We've got the answer.
00:19And we reveal the top five coldest cities on Earth.
00:24Find out which U.S. city made our list.
01:00Remains a mystery to this day, and it's just one of the true and fascinating stories
01:05in the book Invisible Iceberg, When Climate and Weather Shaped History.
01:09Joining us right now is AccuWeather founder and executive chairman
01:13and author of the book Invisible Iceberg, When Climate and Weather Shaped History,
01:18Dr. Joel Myers.
01:20Pleasure to be here.
01:21When I read the book, the one story that keeps coming up time after time after time
01:27is the Little Ice Age.
01:30Let's first talk about what the Little Ice Age was and how significant it was.
01:35Well, it was a cool period, and there's some debate about what time period.
01:41We know it was particularly cool during parts of the 17, 18, into the early 1900s.
01:48Maybe to about 1850, really.
01:50But when did it start?
01:52Some people say as early as 1300.
01:54But while it was cooler through that period of a degree or two in the northern hemisphere
02:00below average, it allowed there to be really extreme periods within it
02:06that were exacerbated by volcanic activity, by changes in ocean currents,
02:11and other factors, maybe solar output.
02:14And just to give some perspective, and we're going to get in to how this impacted many areas,
02:19in your book, Virginia Woolf, who was an author and student at the time,
02:23said that it was so cold in England, birds froze in the midair
02:28and fell like stones to the ground.
02:32Well, that was 1709.
02:34That was one year at a possibly 500-year period.
02:38And there was volcanic activity a year or two, and two years leading up to that in Japan,
02:46Mount Fuji, and Vesuvius erupted, and perhaps others.
02:49So we think that's the reason.
02:51Also, maybe some changes in ocean currents.
02:53But for just an extraordinary year or two of very cold weather,
02:56it had to be volcanic activity that threw dust into the atmosphere,
03:00shielded the sunlight, reflected the sunlight back into space,
03:03and caused dramatic cooling, mainly in the Northern Hemisphere and particularly in Europe.
03:11Let's talk about how cold it was in that January of 1709.
03:18Yeah.
03:19So it was an extraordinary cold period.
03:21It lasted about 10 weeks.
03:23And it came in all of a sudden on January 6th, I believe,
03:28and lasted until mid-March, 1709.
03:32And remember, there were no warnings in those days.
03:35It was mild.
03:37It was normal.
03:38And then all of a sudden, one morning, people woke up,
03:41and it was extraordinarily cold.
03:43Temperature was 5 degrees in Paris, 10 degrees in London.
03:48Now, the normal low temperature for that time of year on any given day
03:52in Paris is 34 Fahrenheit, London 37.
03:57So it was literally 30 degrees lower than normal that day.
04:02And it lasted so long, it really, the rivers froze.
04:06The Thames River froze.
04:09That's extraordinary.
04:11And the livestock was killed.
04:15It had been cold to begin with.
04:16The frost occurred early, you know, before they could get all the crops in.
04:21So there were already food shortages.
04:23And this stopped all commerce, too.
04:25So you couldn't get food in.
04:28The barges couldn't move.
04:30There was snow and ice all over the place.
04:33And so it caused a depression.
04:35And, you know, just to put a bow on this, tidied it up,
04:3930 degrees below normal compared to the normal low temperature
04:44during the coldest part of the year.
04:46That's a big difference.
04:48Let's say compared to April or June.
04:51This was in the dead of winter in January.
04:54Yeah, it was a huge Arctic air mass.
04:56It just was totally unexpected, totally disruptive.
05:00And just caused a depression.
05:02The economic activity fell 15%.
05:04That's like what happened in the Great Depression.
05:07But it all struck in 10 weeks.
05:10It just wrecked havoc and had a terrific impact on history.
05:15So after that, it took years or decades, decades to recover.
05:19Because of all of this, the agricultural, the economy,
05:22it also led to more disease, right?
05:26And that's something you see a lot throughout the history.
05:30Whenever there are these big changes in climate,
05:33it has such an impact on humans.
05:36It does, and not only immediately, but it shortens their lives.
05:40So about 2% of the population perished.
05:45And that's a significant number.
05:47But on top of that, there were fewer babies born
05:50and all kinds of other health impacts people had
05:54that probably showed up later.
05:56So it may have really reduced, ultimately, the population.
05:59They didn't keep those records in those days by 5 or 10%.
06:02Yeah, just huge impacts.
06:04Again, another story where climate just has really
06:07had a huge impact on humanity.
06:10Thanks for telling that story, Dr. Joel.
06:12My pleasure.
06:14Here with more perspective is Sam White,
06:16professor of political history
06:18at the University of Helsinki in Finland.
06:22Thank you so much for joining us today, sir.
06:25Thank you for inviting me.
06:26How was the weather during the Little Ice Age
06:28different from earlier centuries?
06:31So, just as at any other time in history,
06:35the weather varied from day to day
06:37and from season to season.
06:39But on average, on the whole,
06:41there were just more cold extremes.
06:44And this is largely how people experienced
06:46the Little Ice Age.
06:47Most of them were not really aware
06:48of long-term gradual changes in the climate.
06:52Rather, what they experienced were a growing number
06:55and severity of extreme events,
06:58weather that they might have regarded as strange
07:01or unnatural or harmful.
07:03So, some of the famous examples, for instance,
07:05include winters when the lagoon around Venice froze
07:09or where the Timbs froze in London,
07:13years when other bodies of water froze.
07:17It often meant bad weather for crops,
07:19particularly early or late frosts.
07:21These were a particular problem.
07:23For instance, where I live in Finland,
07:26there were terrible early and late frosts
07:29that destroyed crops,
07:30especially at the beginning of the 1600s
07:32and in the 1690s.
07:34There, that famine, that hunger,
07:37that search for food
07:38also set off epidemics,
07:39which killed at least a fifth
07:41of Finland's population.
07:43And now, we have to be clear,
07:44this is not going to be the same everywhere.
07:46And one of the reasons why the impact
07:48was so bad in some places
07:49wasn't just because the weather was bad,
07:52but because people were exposed and vulnerable
07:54and because there were also
07:56some major wars going on at the time.
07:59The War of the Spanish Succession
08:00in Western and Central Europe
08:02and the Great Northern War in Eastern Europe.
08:06So, it's often the combination
08:08of weather and warfare
08:10that produces what the historian Jeffrey Parker
08:13has called the fatal synergy
08:15that often led to the worst disasters
08:18and the highest mortality.
08:20Now, can you speak to the social
08:21and economic impacts
08:23in areas that have the freeze
08:26in Germany, Britain, and France?
08:28So, there are some famous episodes
08:30relating this extreme winter
08:32to historical events.
08:36Perhaps one of the most interesting of these
08:38is the so-called Palatine Migration.
08:40So, basically, the area
08:42of what is now southwestern Germany,
08:43then part of the Holy Roman Empire,
08:46had already suffered from warfare,
08:49particularly invasions of the French army
08:51in previous years.
08:52And it was hit hard by this extremely cold winter.
08:56It led to harvest failures,
08:58the loss of crops and of livestock.
09:01And many people from that region
09:03thought they had an opportunity
09:05to emigrate to America.
09:07There were rumors going on
09:08that if they could just migrate
09:11as far as Britain,
09:12the British would help them migrate,
09:14particularly to the Carolinas.
09:16So, these so-called Palatine migrants,
09:19maybe about 10,000 of them,
09:20tried to make their way north into Britain.
09:23Unfortunately, when they actually
09:24made it to England,
09:25some of them,
09:26they were forced in sort of a refugee camp.
09:28In the end, many of them went back.
09:30Some settled in different parts
09:31of the United Kingdom.
09:33Only a small number of them
09:34actually made it to the Americas.
09:36Why did the Little Ice Age
09:38eventually come to an end?
09:41So, the biggest volcanic eruption
09:45of the Little Ice Age,
09:47except possibly in the 1250s,
09:49if we include that,
09:50took place in 1815 in Tambor.
09:53This brought a few years
09:54of what's sometimes called
09:55a year without a summer,
09:57basically terrible, cold, rainy weather.
10:00But after that,
10:01we just don't see
10:02as many of these large volcanic eruptions.
10:04It's probably just a coincidence.
10:05And as we move later
10:07into the 19th century,
10:09industrialization,
10:11more burning of forests
10:13and of fossil fuels in particular,
10:15was probably starting to make a difference
10:17to the Earth's climate.
10:18Sam White,
10:19professor of political history
10:20at the University of Helsinki.
10:23Thanks again for joining us today.
10:26Thank you for having me.
10:27Coming up,
10:28we count down
10:29the five coldest cities on Earth.
10:32Find out which U.S. city
10:34made our list.
10:35But next,
10:36are we at risk
10:37of another little ice age
10:38happening again?
10:40We've got the answer
10:41after the break.
10:42Welcome back to Invisible Iceberg.
11:05I'm Bernie Raynaud.
11:06Back with us right now
11:08to talk more about
11:08the little ice age
11:09is AccuWeather founder
11:11and executive chairman
11:12and author of the book
11:13Invisible Iceberg
11:14When Climate and Weather
11:15Shaped History,
11:17Dr. Joel Myers.
11:18The little ice age,
11:20we talked about
11:20how it had such huge impacts.
11:23What are some of the changes
11:24that it spurred?
11:27Well, first of all,
11:29it came as a surprise,
11:31particularly this event
11:31we're talking about here,
11:321709,
11:34this extreme cold.
11:36And when you think about
11:37just that period,
11:39wiped out 2%
11:41of the population
11:42of Europe
11:43and probably,
11:45when you look at the tail effect,
11:47probably resulted
11:48in a 5% to 10% decline
11:50in the population
11:51because of sickness,
11:52shortened life,
11:53and all that.
11:54So just think about
11:54that kind of impact.
11:56That's more people
11:56than died
11:57in all the wars of Europe
11:59over a 50 to 100 year period.
12:01Yet it doesn't get
12:02the kind of mention
12:03it should
12:04in the history books.
12:05You know,
12:06Thomas Jefferson said
12:07Europe is a place
12:08of eternal wars
12:09and the United States
12:10should keep out of it.
12:11But you look at,
12:13even considering that,
12:14this one event
12:15killed more people
12:17than the wars going on
12:19all through Europe
12:20over a 50 to 100 year period.
12:22And it also led
12:23to tremendous migration
12:24because it was a depression.
12:26People were starving.
12:27The potato famine
12:28had all kinds
12:29of other impacts
12:30due to this.
12:31It led to migration
12:32within Europe
12:33of significance.
12:34It led to a lot of people
12:35leaving Europe
12:36for the United States.
12:38So it had a profound impact
12:40over many things.
12:41Commerce,
12:42the economy,
12:44health,
12:45and of course
12:45the migration of people.
12:47You think of the economy,
12:48I know it's kind of
12:49hard to measure.
12:50We know enough
12:50a 15% decline
12:52in GDP
12:53in one year
12:55compared to the...
12:56I mean,
12:56that's a dramatic drop.
12:58That's like
12:58the Great Depression.
12:59I was going to ask,
13:00can you compare it
13:01to the Great Depression
13:02as far as a percentage
13:03of...
13:03Yeah, it's comparable.
13:05And that happened
13:05over several years.
13:06This happened
13:07like all at once.
13:08Boom.
13:08So people had no warning.
13:10There were no weather
13:11forecasts in those days.
13:12So there was no
13:14even any indication.
13:16All of a sudden,
13:17boom,
13:17this cold wave hits
13:19in the last 10 weeks.
13:20Just 10 weeks
13:21of extreme cold
13:22and everything's changed.
13:24But the cold
13:25wasn't uniformly cold
13:27the Little Ice Age,
13:28correct?
13:28No,
13:29it was focused
13:30over Europe, though.
13:31I mean,
13:31it was focused
13:31over Northern Europe
13:32but there it was dramatic
13:34and it affected everything.
13:37Even the political wars
13:39going on,
13:40you know,
13:40Sweden invading Russia
13:42normally would have won
13:43but Russia won
13:45and Sweden,
13:46their army was wiped out.
13:47All kinds of impacts.
13:49Let's say there was
13:50an AccuWeather
13:50and we had
13:51the correct forecast.
13:53Could they have
13:54really dealt with it
13:55or prepared for it
13:57any better?
13:58Well,
13:58there was no
13:58communications
13:59in those days.
14:00I mean,
14:00you know,
14:00we've only had
14:01the internet
14:01the last 30 years.
14:02We've only had radio,
14:03TV for the last 100.
14:05Newspapers go by.
14:06And also,
14:07we didn't have
14:07mechanization
14:09to clear the snow
14:11to deal with it.
14:13some things
14:15could have been.
14:15If you had
14:16a year or two
14:17advance notice,
14:18you perhaps
14:19could have stored
14:20more food
14:20and been prepared
14:21but they weren't.
14:22There's been
14:23no other period
14:24in Europe
14:24that we know of
14:25that's been
14:25as cold
14:26and as devastating
14:28because of extreme cold
14:29as this one
14:30in 1709.
14:32Would so many
14:33Europeans
14:34have moved
14:34to the New World
14:35if the Little Ice Age
14:36had not happened?
14:38No.
14:38There's no doubt
14:39it would have not
14:40spurred the kind
14:41of migration
14:41that did occur.
14:43It was dramatic.
14:45And whenever you have
14:46an extreme event
14:47like this,
14:48oftentimes there's
14:49scapegoating,
14:50blaming others
14:51for the woes
14:52brought about
14:53by the Little Ice Age.
14:54Did that happen
14:55anywhere in Europe?
14:56Absolutely.
14:57People like to blame
14:58some people,
15:00other people,
15:01they like to blame.
15:02So there's no,
15:03they're not responsible
15:04in any way
15:07even though
15:08humans weren't
15:08responsible.
15:09So they picked
15:10on minorities
15:11and there's
15:12anti-Semitism,
15:13there was other,
15:14even the Christian
15:16religions on the fringe
15:17were attacked
15:19and of course
15:19the witches.
15:21Old women
15:22that may have been
15:23acting strangely
15:24must be the cause.
15:26The gods are angry
15:28and so,
15:30you know,
15:30the witch trials
15:31and all that
15:32started.
15:33All these
15:33scapegoating
15:35of people
15:36who must be
15:36causing this.
15:38Again,
15:38it's the arrogance
15:39of people
15:39thinking they
15:41or some portion
15:42of people
15:42are causing everything
15:43and of course
15:44humans had nothing
15:45to do with it.
15:46The Little Ice Age
15:47is part of the
15:48Earth's DNA
15:49over time.
15:50Yes.
15:51Can it happen again?
15:53Sure,
15:53it could happen again.
15:55I mean,
15:55it was apparently
15:56due to volcanic eruptions.
15:57If we had
15:58significant volcanic eruptions
16:00and a series of them,
16:03we could go into
16:04a major ice age.
16:05It's possible.
16:06If there were
16:07meteorites that hit
16:08that threw a lot
16:09of dust into the atmosphere,
16:12you could then
16:12have a chain
16:13of events
16:14that you could have
16:15a prolonged period
16:17lasting years
16:18of extreme cold weather.
16:19No sign of it.
16:20That's not something
16:21that is easily predictable.
16:24I mean,
16:24volcanoes
16:25and asteroids
16:26and things like that
16:27are nothing like
16:28weather forecasting
16:29in terms of accuracy.
16:30But clearly,
16:31we're in a warming period
16:32because of humans.
16:34We know that.
16:36It may be exacerbated
16:37by other things,
16:37but it's almost entirely
16:39due to humans'
16:41global warming
16:42and we're experiencing that.
16:45But it hasn't gone on
16:47long enough
16:47to tell if it's going
16:48to continue to accelerate
16:49at this rate
16:51or whether it may
16:52slow down for a little bit.
16:54But clearly,
16:55the threat
16:55from global warming
16:56caused by humans
16:57is real and ongoing.
16:58So any cooling
17:00would be against
17:01that continued warming.
17:03When we look
17:03at your book,
17:04Invisible Iceberg,
17:05so much of the early
17:06part of this book
17:07deals with
17:08the little ice age.
17:09And as you mentioned,
17:10it was such a profound
17:11climatological story
17:16that doesn't seem
17:17to get the significance
17:20that it's due.
17:21Well, in the history books,
17:22because most historians
17:24are not scientists,
17:25so they focus
17:26on the people
17:27and the armies
17:28and the politics.
17:30But a lot of that
17:31is really controlled
17:32and results from
17:33changes in the weather
17:35and climate.
17:36Well, it was such
17:37a cold period
17:38and the impacts
17:39were just so profound.
17:40Well, thanks for sharing
17:41that story
17:42and thanks for joining us
17:43here today, Dr. Joel.
17:44Always my pleasure.
17:46Next, find out
17:47which U.S. city
17:48made our list
17:49of the top five
17:50coldest places on Earth.
17:52Welcome back
18:04to Invisible Iceberg.
18:05I'm Bernie Raynaud.
18:06It is time
18:07to embark
18:08on a journey
18:08to the five
18:09coldest cities
18:10on Earth.
18:11First on our
18:12frosty tour
18:12is Narysh, Russia
18:14located in Siberia.
18:16Narysh is often
18:17under the control
18:18of the Siberian
18:19high-pressure system
18:20allowing winter temperatures
18:21to plummet
18:22below 22 degrees
18:24below zero Fahrenheit.
18:26Despite its remote location
18:28and harsh climate,
18:29Narysh plays a crucial role
18:30in the global economy
18:32due to its rich
18:33mineral resources.
18:35Next, we travel
18:35to Yakutsk, Russia,
18:37also situated in Siberia.
18:39In the dead of winter,
18:40temperatures often fall
18:41to 40 degrees Fahrenheit
18:43below zero
18:43or even colder.
18:45Yakutsk is so frigid
18:46that it can only be reached
18:48by an ice road
18:49along the Lena River
18:50during the winter months.
18:52Heading to North America,
18:53we find Barrow, Alaska.
18:55Here are high temperatures
18:55during the winter months
18:57average below zero
18:58while nighttime temperatures
18:59routinely fall
19:00to 20 degrees
19:02below zero Fahrenheit.
19:04Its location,
19:05330 miles north
19:06of the Arctic Circle,
19:07leads to polar nights
19:08where the sun disappears
19:09from late November
19:10to January.
19:12Situated near
19:13the Arctic Circle,
19:14Yellowknife,
19:15Canada is known
19:16for its long,
19:16bitterly cold winters
19:17with temperatures
19:18frequently dropping
19:19to 20 degrees Fahrenheit
19:20below zero.
19:21This city is famous
19:22for its spectacular views
19:24of the Northern Lights
19:25and its rich history
19:26in gold mining.
19:28Lastly,
19:28we take you to Haran, China.
19:31The city of Haran
19:32and its 10 million residents
19:33brave winter temperatures
19:35that routinely remain
19:36below zero.
19:37Its International Snow
19:38and Ice Festival
19:39attracts millions
19:40of visitors each winter.
19:42That's our show for today.
19:43For more information
19:45and get your copy
19:46of the book
19:47Invisible Iceberg
19:48When Climate and Weather
19:49Shapes History
19:50by Dr. Joel Myers,
19:51go to invisibleiceberg.com.
19:54We look forward
19:54to seeing you next time.
Comments