00:00John, you bring a deep and personal and professional insight into hurricane risks for the Northeast.
00:05Decades, of course, of forecasting experience.
00:07And you're here to explain why this region remains one of the most vulnerable and overdue for a significant tropical impact.
00:15So, John, you grew up in Connecticut.
00:17Can you tell us what some of those impacts from the 1938 Long Island Express and Hurricane Bob in 1991 meant to you
00:26and how those events shaped your perspective on hurricane risks in the Northeast?
00:30Well, good morning. Let's start with the 1938 hurricane.
00:33That was the hurricane really of record here across the coastal part of New England.
00:39It had tragic, devastating impacts here across portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts as well.
00:46The storm made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in Bellport, New York, on Long Island.
00:52And then rapidly raced to the north and east.
00:54It was moving at 50 to 55 miles per hour, moved up, made another landfall between Bridgeport and New Haven, Connecticut,
01:00as a Category 3 storm, and brought destructive winds across much of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts over a wide area.
01:09Wind gusts to 100 miles per hour or more for many hours on end and resulted in lots of property destruction.
01:15Now, I heard a lot about this storm growing up because my grandfather, Sebastian Cerrito, he grew up in New London, Connecticut,
01:22and he survived that hurricane. He was in that hurricane.
01:25Here's a picture of my grandparents many years ago and Pop there in the middle.
01:30He told us many times about how that 1938 hurricane was.
01:35There was very little warning.
01:36They knew it was going to be a stormy day, but people were racing back to their homes because schools and work let out in the middle of the day.
01:44And there were, I remember how Pop would talk about that storm with the trees falling all around him.
01:50And people were so thankful to have survived that storm.
01:53Of course, there was such a tragic loss of life associated with it.
01:56So it really was the storm of record that people remembered for generations.
01:59And, of course, there have been other impacts in New England as well.
02:02But that 38 storm not only brought that destructive wind, but it resulted in significant, catastrophic flooding inland across parts of Connecticut,
02:10up into western Massachusetts, and even northern New England.
02:13So it was a storm to be remembered for a long time.
02:16This kind of storm is going to happen again in New England.
02:18It's just a question of when, and that's why people have to be prepared.
02:21You think back to 1938 and all the damage and destruction,
02:25but you and the team were able to come up with a number about what kind of damage that would be today.
02:31We looked at it, and if that same storm were to happen today,
02:34that storm could result in $440 billion of total damage and economic loss.
02:42And to put that into perspective, remember the total damage and economic loss from Hurricane Katrina,
02:47inflation adjusted around $325 billion.
02:50So you can see this would be a very significant impact in the northeast.
02:54And Accurator data shows the northeast typically sees a hurricane every 15 to 20 years.
02:59It's been over 30 since, Bob.
03:01Why do you and the team believe that this region is so overdue?
03:04Well, we're just concerned by looking at those numbers and those stats.
03:07When you take a look at this graphic here, look at the storms that were in the 50s and 60s,
03:12and of course, Hurricane Gloria in 1985 coming up through Connecticut,
03:15and Bob in 1991.
03:17That's the most recent significant hurricane impact in New England.
03:20So it's overdue, and when you get the factors to come together in the right way,
03:25that can result in very serious impacts in New England.
03:28You talked about factors.
03:30What does it take to steer a hurricane into the northeast?
03:33Well, you've got to have, it's a perfect setup that's required,
03:37and you have to have a strong Bermuda high in place that directs storms further west toward the United States,
03:43a dip in the jet stream in the northeastern part of the United States that draws a storm up the coast.
03:48And perhaps, this is extremely important too, you have to have an area of high pressure across eastern Canada
03:53that blocks the exit route, a blocking area of high pressure.
03:57Then the storm has nowhere to go but to make its way into the northeastern part of the United States.
04:01This is the recipe when these factors come together for hurricane hits in the northeastern part of the United States,
04:08and these destructive storms from years past are why people treat hurricanes so significantly in the northeast,
04:14and it's important to prepare for them, so constantly be monitoring the AccuWeather forecast
04:18all throughout the hurricane season so you can be best prepared and stay safer
04:23and know when to prepare across New England.
04:26Unfortunately, we're overdue for a significant impact there,
04:29and another storm like the 38 hurricane can happen in the future.
04:33We need people to be aware of that and be ready.
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