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  • 8 months ago
During a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on Wednesday, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) asked Senior Policy Researcher at RAND Shelly Culbertson about stability in Syria.
Transcript
00:00Thank you very much Senator Rosen and Chair McCormick. Thank you both for
00:03holding this hearing and thank you to each of our witnesses for testifying. I
00:08think it's fair to say that there's general bipartisan agreement on this
00:13committee and I think probably in Congress that a stable Syria is in the
00:17best interests of the United States. So as you're thinking about what we should
00:24be doing in Syria, what are the resources that are needed to bring greater
00:28stability there, and what security guarantees are needed and that the
00:35United States could be helpful with. And I will throw it open to whoever would like
00:38to answer.
00:45Syria also is at a pivotal moment coming out of war but with a very fragile
00:51government and society and I think there are a number of steps that we should be
00:57taking now that Syria's met the criteria to lift sanctions on them. They're not
01:01perfect but it's important that Syria succeed. The first is stability and
01:07mediation among various sectoral groups. The U.S. was very effective in solving
01:12sectoral disputes in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. I think that's one of the keys to
01:19their stability in the long term working between the KDP and PUK. In Syria we have
01:25an opportunity to help Syria become a united country as well. The next is a
01:29recovery strategy. There's been a tremendous amount of physical
01:33infrastructure, destruction, social destruction, public services, 2.4 million
01:38children are out of school, a quarter of housing is damaged or destroyed. This will
01:43not be rebuilt on its own without financing, accountability, and a lot of
01:48coordination. So having a strong recovery strategy that looks broadly at
01:52infrastructure, social services, the economy, etc. is key. The third, I'll give
01:58four, the third is working on refugee return. What we've learned from studies
02:03globally is that the vast majority of refugees never return and I think if we
02:08want to see something different in Syria with returns something different will
02:12need to have to happen and that will require enabling conditions in Syria so that
02:16refugees can return and find stability and education and jobs. And then finally, Al
02:22Hol and Roj and the ISIS prisons are a remaining sore spot in the in the
02:28Northeast. Some 9,000 fighters are in prison, probably likely will be incarcerated
02:34for a long time, if not in perpetuity. But there are 40,000 family members, the
02:38women and children. Many of the women are criminals also, but the children are not
02:43getting adequate education and having growing up in that environment is a
02:48long-term risk to them as well as to future radicalization issues. So those
02:53are the four steps that I'd recommend. I'm surprised you didn't mention lifting of
02:57sanctions. Did I miss that? No, the sanctions lifting that happened last week and then
03:04if or a month ago or so as well as other steps to do so. But I think that there has
03:12been rhetoric about lifting the sanctions but the actual implementation of that is
03:16ongoing. So how important do you think that is? I think I think it's crucial. Syria is
03:21not going to recover without funds. They need to rebuild buildings and that costs
03:26money and that that money has to go through banks and in order to give Syria a
03:32chance at not devolving into chaos again. There needs to be funding flowing into it
03:37but done in ways that manage accountability so that it's being spent as
03:42intended. And how challenging is the continued bombing from Israel into Syria in
03:49terms of creating, preventing the ability of the country to come together? I think all of
03:57the violence, the intersectoral violence with neighboring countries etc is putting
04:03Syria in a very delicate spot. It could devolve back into civil war and stay that
04:08way for a long time or it could weather it and go forward. And I think a lot of
04:12that depends on US leadership and making sure that some of these conditions are in
04:15place including internal stability, relations with neighbors, recovery and
04:21helping the refugees return. Thank you. Last week the minority on this
04:27committee released this report on China, the price of retreat, and it addresses
04:32policies that have been put in place since the Trump administration came into
04:37office at the beginning of the year. And it talks about ceding ground to China. In the
04:45Middle East we know that Huawei is developing 5G networks in Kuwait, Egypt and
04:50that China has held its first ever joint military drills over Egyptian pyramids. It
04:56also serves as an intermediary for dual-use products used by Houthis for their
05:02drones. So what does China want in the Middle East? Again, Ambassador Shapiro.
05:10Sure, thank you Senator. China clearly wants to establish influence both economic but
05:17increasingly also military footprint and relationships. And so it's one of the
05:23reasons ensuring that we remain the security partner of choice for our
05:30partners in the region is critical. When we've been negotiating over the last
05:35couple administrations the possibility of normalization between Saudi Arabia and
05:40Israel, the Saudis have come to us and said we'd like a security guarantee from
05:45the United States, which I think is reasonable to grant but it must be coupled
05:49with clear limitations on Saudi-Chinese military cooperation. That I think would
05:54not just help us with the Saudis but it would actually set a frame for others on the
05:58in the Gulf and that should be that should be critical. Now we also have these
06:03other presence, we have small presence in Iraq, small presence in Syria, those
06:07support partners like the Kurds, obviously help continue the counter-ISIS
06:12mission. If we were to precipitously remove ourselves from all those areas, it
06:17would raise a lot of questions in the minds of various partners and the Chinese
06:21would certainly be looking for opportunities to show, maybe not
06:23initially militarily, but economically or with cultural or other kinds of
06:28programming, that they are an alternative to us. That's something that is very
06:31dangerous for our interests. Well thank you. I recommend the report to each of you.
06:35Thank you Mr. Chairman and ranking.
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