FRANCE 24's Kethevane Gorjestani reports from The Netherlands as NATO leaders meet in The Hague. Speaking to FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney, Charles A. Kupchan, a former advisor to President Barack Obama and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, says that a US withdrawal from global alliances is unlikely and that Donald Trump "will stand by Article 5 in the American commitment to collective defence".
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00:04Allied leaders gathered in The Hague will be hoping that their pledge to ramp up defence spending will keep the US president committed to protecting them.
00:13Donald Trump has arrived for the high-stakes NATO summit in the Netherlands after casting doubt over the United States' commitment to defending its NATO partners,
00:22suggesting there were numerous definitions to the cornerstone of the alliance's mutual defence pact.
00:29Well, for the very latest, let's cross live now to our international affairs editor, Kedavan Gourjastani, is standing by for us in The Hague.
00:38Kedavan, it depends on your definition, says Donald Trump, when it comes to the Article 5 guarantee.
00:44What has the reaction been?
00:46Well, look, in public, the other allies of NATO are sort of downplaying those comments by Donald Trump.
00:59Earlier, I asked the question to the foreign minister of Poland, Radek Sikorsky, what he made of those comments made by Donald Trump aboard Air Force One.
01:09And he said, well, the US president is correct legally.
01:14He said that the wording of Article 5 was kept intentionally vague initially when it was written.
01:22But in private, a lot of European allies, especially those on the eastern flank, those who are facing the threat of a possible Russian attack really on their borders,
01:35they are concerned about Donald Trump casting doubt once again on Article 5, on his commitment to Article 5.
01:45And that principle that guides this article, which is that an attack on one is an attack on all.
01:53And he has in the past made some comments about it.
01:55But it seemed a few days ago when you listen to some officials from the Elyse briefing reporters that they didn't worry about that,
02:06that they didn't see any fundamental questioning of the idea of Article 5.
02:12This has been sort of blown apart by those comments that Donald Trump made aboard Air Force One.
02:18He was asked twice about that commitment.
02:21The first time he said, well, it depends on the definition of Article 5.
02:26And as you mentioned, he said that there were numerous definitions.
02:30And when he was asked again whether he was committed to the mutual defense pact, he said, I'm committed to peace.
02:38He also said that he was committed to being friends with NATO allies.
02:43But no direct confirmation that the United States would guarantee that Article 5.
02:49And of course, that has resonated within the NATO summit, as I was saying, especially those Eastern European allies.
02:58But more broadly, of all the NATO members, even though they still maintain that they believe that in the final declaration that will come out of this summit,
03:09that there will be strong wording for NATO solidarity and strong wording against the Russian aggression, as well as support for Ukraine.
03:20And, Kadovan, we've been hearing that the 5% spending goal, it's supposedly been agreed, but in reality, it already seems to have been watered down.
03:28Yes, the idea coming in to The Hague was that the negotiations were being already had and that they wanted to get an agreement.
03:42And it seemed, according to the reporting and some of the public statements, that there had been that agreement on a 5% spending goal.
03:50There was still a little bit of debate as to the deadline, whether it was 2032, 2035.
03:55But then you had the Spaniards who came out publicly saying that they found those goals unreasonable, that they were working for an exemption.
04:04You had a letter sent by the Spanish Prime Minister to the Secretary General of NATO to ask for that exemption.
04:12And it seems like they're trying to figure out a workaround.
04:16Because earlier today, Radek Sigorskiy, the Polish foreign minister, said that he saw the draft of that declaration and there was no opt-out for anyone.
04:28But it seems that the workaround is going to be about the 3.5% of direct defense spending.
04:34This is about the capabilities of NATO allies and the general knowledge and general belief is that if allies spend 3.5% of their GDP, then they meet those capabilities.
04:50What the Spaniards are starting to argue and what some other low spenders are starting to argue is that they can meet those defense capabilities without spending as much as 3.5%.
05:02You have to remember that there are quite a few countries still who are not even reaching the initial 2% goal, let alone 3.5%, let alone even 5%.
05:13And so this is going to be one of the key sticking points and we'll see what comes out in that final declaration.
05:20Kervan, thanks so much.
05:21That's France 24's Kervan Gurdjastani joining us live there from The Hague.
05:25Well, for more, let's bring in Charles A. Kukchan, former advisor to President Obama and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
05:33Thanks so much for being with us this evening, Charles.
05:35Given the hugely tense geopolitical situation, just how much is at stake during this NATO summit this week?
05:43It will, of course, be Donald Trump's first of his second term.
05:48You know, in some ways, that geopolitical tumult that you're talking about, the war in the Middle East, the ongoing war in Ukraine, works to the advantage of NATO.
06:00It makes it more likely that this summit will go off smoothly.
06:05And that's because when you have that kind of backdrop, two major wars going on at the same time, a ceasefire, a tentative, fragile ceasefire that has just broken out in the Middle East, Russia still bombing Ukraine, Putin saying, yes, I'm willing to talk to you, Mr. Trump, but no, I'm not willing to abide by a ceasefire.
06:27This all, I think, puts pressure on everybody, including Donald Trump himself, to be on best behavior.
06:34So it's a short summit.
06:36They're not going to shoot high when it comes to deliverables.
06:40I think over the next 24 hours, things are going to go well and everybody will breathe a sigh of relief that NATO is still intact and that the United States is still committed to Europe.
06:51And Charles, Donald Trump is suggesting that there are numerous definitions to what is essentially the cornerstone of NATO's mutual defense pact.
06:59How committed do you think he actually is to Article 5?
07:02You know, I think everything that Donald Trump says needs to be interpreted as the words of a reality TV star, right?
07:13He wants to be at the top of the news.
07:16He wants to dominate the news cycle.
07:18He could have just said, yes, I'm ready to honor Article 5.
07:23But he needed to say something that he knew would get everybody chattering.
07:28You know, when he was in his first term, he mused about withdrawing from NATO.
07:33He later on talked about not defending allies who don't spend enough on defense.
07:39We haven't heard that coming out of Donald Trump during the second term.
07:44He's really been fairly traditional when it comes to the relationship with allies, a good relationship with the prime minister of the UK,
07:54the president of France, the chancellor of Germany, the president of Finland.
07:59So, yes, this is a disruptor.
08:02Yes, this is someone who likes to keep everyone guessing.
08:06But I do think that the world hems Donald Trump in.
08:09And that even if he would like to withdraw from various alliances in Europe and in Asia, it's not in the cards in this topsy-turvy world that we're in.
08:21And so my best guess is Trump is going to stand by Article 5 and the American commitment to collective defense.
08:28And he definitely has been succeeding in dominating the news agenda, as you say, Charles, so much so.
08:34The president, Zelensky, must be feeling very sidelined heading into this summit.
08:39He's not going to be at the actual set events, but he will be hoping, I presume, to have a word with Donald Trump while he's there.
08:44Are you expecting, like Ketavan suggested, that there will be strong wording about Russia at the end of this summit?
08:51You know, I think there will be cautious wording, but wording that makes it clear that NATO sees Russia as the aggressor and that NATO is prepared to stand by Ukraine.
09:07One thing that I would be watching for very carefully is anything that Trump might say about his readiness to continue to fund Ukraine, to send weapons to Ukraine, to send economic assistance to Ukraine when the $61 billion that President Biden got through Congress runs out, because it will run out this summer.
09:29We don't yet know whether Trump is going to say, OK, I'm now going to add on to what Biden did.
09:37I think everybody is going to be all ears in The Hague hoping that President Trump makes that commitment to stand by Ukraine and to maintain unity when it comes to helping Ukraine defend itself.
09:50Do you think that the situation in the Middle East more generally, that it might actually move things along a little bit when it comes to the war in Ukraine, perhaps put more pressure on Russia to agree to some kind of ceasefire?
10:06Well, I think that the actions of the last 48 hours give Trump wind in his sails.
10:13His decision to bomb Fordow, Isfahan, and other nuclear sites in Iran was a controversial one, but it seems to have gone reasonably well.
10:26We don't know whether this ceasefire will hold.
10:29We don't know how much of Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities are still intact, but it does look like Iran is ready to back down.
10:38That puts Trump in a pretty strong position.
10:42And I do think that we will need to see more coercive pressure on Russia, that in the coming weeks, Trump needs to come around and say, yeah, I'm ready to tighten sanctions.
10:55Yeah, I'm ready to provide Ukraine the arms that it needs to defend itself.
11:00Because until we see the American president put his foot down and say to Mr. Putin, enough is enough, my best guess is Putin will keep coming.
11:10Putin will stop when he is stopped, and that's going to require allied unity and the flow of weapons to Ukraine for the foreseeable future.
11:20And would you be hopeful, though, that something like that might happen, given how, you know, focused Donald Trump has been on the situation in the Middle East?
11:29You know, I don't know.
11:31I've had conversations with colleagues here in Washington, including on Capitol Hill.
11:37Nobody knows.
11:39But I do think that there is a reasonable chance that Trump will ask for more aid.
11:44Number one, because he's angry with Putin for playing him.
11:49Number two, because the costs of aiding Ukraine are going down.
11:53A lot of what Ukraine now uses, unmanned drones, for example, are made in Ukraine.
11:58And number three, because the United States and Ukraine signed a minerals deal, which allows Trump to say to the American taxpayer, yeah, I'm going to ask for more aid for Ukraine, but they're going to pay us back because that aid is counted as an investment in the minerals deal.
12:17So my best guess is Trump is going to come around and agree to stand alongside his European allies and sending more aid to Ukraine.
12:27But I'm speculating like everybody else.
12:29Well, that will definitely be what President Zelensky will be hoping for.
12:33Charles, we'll have to leave it there for now.
12:34Thanks so much for being with us, though.
12:36That's Charles, a Kutchen former advisor to President Obama and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
