00:00 Let's continue our analysis now.
00:02 Joining me here on set is Celia Belang.
00:03 She's head of the Paris office of the European Council
00:06 of Foreign Relations here in Paris.
00:08 She's also an invited researcher at the Brookings Institute
00:11 in Washington.
00:11 Thanks very much for coming in and talking to us today.
00:14 There really is no doubt now, is there,
00:16 that we're heading for a rematch, if you like,
00:19 Trump versus Biden in November.
00:21 Well, there was almost no doubt yesterday as well.
00:24 So it's just a confirmation of what
00:26 we had seen, which was domination by Donald Trump
00:29 in the Republican field, and with almost
00:32 a mathematical impossibility for Nikki Haley
00:35 to be an actual challenger to Donald Trump.
00:38 And on the other side, on the Biden side, of course,
00:41 he's the incumbent.
00:42 He's decided more than a year ago
00:44 that he wanted to try again to seek re-election.
00:49 And therefore, apart from displeasure
00:52 from a part of electorates who would like him
00:55 to be a younger man, who would like him to be
00:58 a different candidate maybe, he's still
01:00 winning across the board.
01:01 So we do have now our--
01:05 we already know who's going to face whom in November.
01:08 At least we know where we are, I suppose.
01:10 I mean, voters in the US seem very unenthusiastic,
01:13 don't they, about this rematch.
01:16 What about us here in Europe?
01:18 Let's start off talking about each candidate.
01:19 Joe Biden, how enthusiastic would you be,
01:22 do you think Europeans would be, about the idea of an ongoing
01:25 Biden presidency?
01:28 Well, it has to be compared to the alternative.
01:32 That's the first point, which makes Europeans more
01:35 likely to support Joe Biden.
01:37 But also, it's in the light of what's
01:40 happened in the past two years since the Russian attack
01:44 on aggression on Ukraine.
01:46 Joe Biden has proven to be able to be the American president
01:51 that leads Europe, that leads the Western world, that
01:55 is cementing a transatlantic solidarity.
01:58 Even when there are divisions among Europeans,
02:02 the Americans have sought to find a consensus
02:07 amongst Europeans and with Europeans.
02:11 As far as the Ukraine war is concerned,
02:13 this would be of major importance
02:16 to have someone sitting in the Oval Office that
02:19 is continued belief that a strategic defeat should
02:23 be imposed to Russia on the battlefield in Ukraine,
02:27 that is ready to support financially
02:29 Ukraine in the long run.
02:31 And generally, that has a positive outlook
02:34 on cooperation with Europe, with the Trade and Technology
02:37 Council, for example.
02:38 So all across the board, you have
02:40 a cooperative American president, which in itself
02:44 is a big plus.
02:46 Cooperative, yes.
02:47 Is that the same for Donald Trump, I suppose,
02:49 is the next question?
02:50 Well, not at all.
02:51 We all remember what's happened during the first mandate
02:54 of Donald Trump, where you had high opposition
02:57 between Europeans and Americans all across the board.
03:03 Famously, Donald Trump said that the European Union was even
03:07 worse than China, which is quite something to say.
03:10 And he was talking mostly about trade.
03:12 He was a very fierce trade advocate for the US
03:16 and competitor to the EU and to China.
03:21 He imposed tariffs on the military front
03:28 and the security front.
03:29 He was also one of the biggest criticism of European allies
03:34 who did not spend enough on defence, which
03:36 is a classic criticism.
03:38 Arguably, Barack Obama and his administration
03:42 also criticised Europeans.
03:44 But the difference with Donald Trump,
03:46 it's that he has always inserted an element of doubt
03:51 of whether he would actually stand with NATO allies
03:54 in case of an aggression.
03:56 The aggression has already happened under Biden's watch.
03:59 But if it has to now shift to Trump,
04:04 the question would remain, would Donald Trump
04:06 be able to be that leader president,
04:09 to be on the side of Europeans?
04:12 And it's more than a doubt.
04:14 There's almost certainty that things would change.
04:17 They are already changing in anticipation
04:20 of his potential return.
04:21 I mean, Donald Trump has even threatened to pull out
04:23 of NATO altogether.
04:24 Yes, so he has in the past said that he
04:28 was disregarding Article 5 or that he was not really
04:31 interested in NATO solidarity or security guarantees.
04:35 He might have-- he talked about pulling out of NATO.
04:39 Actually, he did not.
04:40 He said later that he was only using this
04:43 as leverage for European allies to spend more.
04:47 He's sort of doing that again, but increasing the pressure
04:53 by saying most recently that Russia could do whatever
04:58 the hell they wanted to allies who didn't pay up for defence.
05:03 One of the issues is that it's as if he's not
05:06 taking into account all the investment
05:08 that Europeans have made.
05:09 He's pretending that only Americans and the US
05:13 are paying for Ukraine's defence.
05:16 Only them are mobilising and investing
05:20 in defence, which is not at all the case.
05:22 Things have changed a lot in the past two years.
05:25 So really, there's no way of knowing how much this
05:31 would be put in place.
05:33 What we know is also Donald Trump's intention
05:36 to potentially strike a deal with Putin
05:40 immediately after taking office.
05:41 That's his fantasy.
05:43 That's the ideal that he would like to seek.
05:45 He wants to put an end to the war in Ukraine.
05:47 And for this, he's probably ready to arm wrestle
05:50 the Europeans and the Ukrainians.
05:52 You said that things are starting to change already.
05:54 I mean, do you think Europe is prepared enough, though,
05:56 for the possibility of Donald Trump?
05:58 Rather that it started to change in the US, actually.
06:01 The supplemental package that was
06:03 supposed to fund Ukraine aid and Israel aid
06:06 and also border security is stuck in Congress
06:09 because of a minority of Trumpian congressmen
06:16 and women who are trying to have their way in not funding
06:20 Ukraine anymore.
06:22 And by that token, Europeans have taken note
06:25 and are already sort of putting in place
06:27 the type of military support for Ukraine,
06:31 but also the type of rhetoric that
06:33 would counter that element.
06:35 Most recently, the French President Emmanuel Macron,
06:39 as recently as three days ago, said
06:42 that France and other European countries
06:47 would be ready to send military personnel on the ground,
06:51 not necessarily to combat, but that there
06:54 was a conversation on it.
06:56 Not really ready now, but that the conversation
06:59 should be open on that front.
07:00 And this is a direct consequence of Europeans and French
07:05 trying to jump over this potential risk of Donald Trump
07:09 returning to the White House.
07:11 Emmanuel Macron, didn't he, last year even said,
07:14 didn't he, and was strongly criticised for saying,
07:17 that Europe has got to start standing on its own.
07:19 It can't rely on the US in the future.
07:21 I mean, he's been proved right, hasn't he?
07:24 But he's not quite there yet, right?
07:26 So there is a majority in Congress,
07:29 both on the Republican and Democratic side,
07:31 for voting the supplemental on Ukraine, actually.
07:35 What's standing in the way is a minority
07:37 of Trumpian congressmen who are blocking
07:40 the Speaker of the House, who's not taking it,
07:43 you know, taking upon himself to bring this vote to the floor.
07:47 But so potentially, actually, if this issue
07:52 would be overcome, you would have the supplemental package.
07:56 If you have a re-election of Joe Biden,
07:59 you actually don't have a major change.
08:03 The issue for Europeans is that it's an either/or.
08:06 There's almost a 50/50 chance of seeing Joe Biden
08:09 or Donald Trump sitting in the White House in a year.
08:12 And that makes the whole difference.
08:14 So there's contingency plan, but it's extremely difficult
08:18 to plan in such an uncertainty.
08:21 Great to have your analysis on the programme today.
08:22 Thank you very much for coming in and talking to us.
08:24 Celia Bélazs, who's head of the Paris office
08:27 of the European Council of Foreign Relations here in Paris.
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