00:00And for more on the escalating situation, I spoke with Elijah J. Magnier, who's a security analyst based in Brussels.
00:07It's going to escalate further and further because both sides cannot declare defeat or surrender or accept the terms of the other,
00:17particularly when Israel started this war, setting up objectives that are not possible to achieve, even with the support of all the Israeli allies.
00:30How far do you see this conflict potentially spinning out of control?
00:34For example, do you expect any kind of Iranian strikes on American targets in the region or even on its allies with Tehran threatening those countries that may support Israel?
00:47I think it's very unlikely unless the U.S. declare its participation to the war.
00:52As long as the Americans are supporting the Israelis from behind the scene or under the table, it's OK, because that would not embarrass the Iranians.
01:02At the moment the Americans will declare their full participation to the war, then that would push the Iranians to hit the U.S. bases surrounding Iran in the Middle East.
01:15Nevertheless, that is really not the Iranian choice because the Iranians understand if they want to inflict pain on the U.S., they just need to hit Tel Aviv.
01:26And this is where the scream will start. And this is where the Israelis will put pressure on the Americans to stop the war because they cannot sustain a damage similar to the one that they have sustained in the 48 hours.
01:42And of course, Elijah, all of this comes as the Gaza crisis continues. How many fronts can Israel realistically sustain?
01:50Well, actually, Israel is not sustaining many fronts because Gaza is 364 square kilometers.
01:5670 percent of Gaza has been occupied. 80 percent of Gaza is destroyed.
02:02And the objective of Benjamin Netanyahu is to occupy Gaza, which is a very bad idea.
02:09And the tension between Iran and Israel, of course, has been brewing for many decades.
02:37This is nothing new. Do you see any realistic path towards a peaceful resolution?
02:43I don't, because Benjamin Netanyahu has been preparing for this war on Iran for the last 15 years.
02:53However, the power of Hezbollah on the Lebanese borders preventing him from being engaged in a war directly against Iran.
03:04The moment he has set back, Hezbollah destroyed a large part of Hezbollah's arsenal, as it seems very effective because Hezbollah has not yet participated to the support of Iran in this war.
03:22Therefore, for him, starting from October 2024, it was the best opportunity to bomb Iran, particularly if he manages to convince President Donald Trump.
03:35And it seems he did.
03:36So, for the Israelis, they have always thought that it is a very bad idea to engage Iran in any nuclear talk.
03:46And they really were eager to bomb Iran.
03:50And this is when they started to lay ground for the plan to wage war on Iran.
03:55And here we are today.
03:56And here we are today.
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