00:00Cleveland returns home to host the Houston Astros who are playing pretty good baseball
00:04as of this moment DRS and have opened up a game and a half lead for the top spot in the American
00:10League West over the Seattle Mariners today the Astros despite being in Cleveland a slight road
00:16favorite minus 124 over understands at eight and a half we have seen some movement in that number
00:22again the Stros now the favorites at minus 124 live on the FanDuel Sportsbook what do you like
00:28in this Cleveland clash yeah not great pitchers on the mound today but we are going to focus on that
00:32Houston Astros lineup as they wait for Alvarez to get back in Eastock Paredes with a couple home runs
00:37that'll certainly go a long way and now you're moving from Pittsburgh over to Cleveland temperatures
00:42okay 67 degrees light wind blowing in from center field no rain in the forecast that should help us
00:47out but if we're focused on Logan Allen we take a look at him as 24th on the car today at 29 pitchers
00:53with his XFIP number at a 4.84 that ERA at 4.58 17 and two-thirds innings pitched not now here's the
01:00difference though when you get the 30-day statistics with a left-handed pitcher you flip that over to
01:04the other side and say well usually we don't get the 50 60 70 at bats which we're not getting that
01:09you normally would have against a lineup against a right-handed pitcher but you still have some
01:12pretty good numbers through limited bats look at the first three guys in the lineup that's
01:15Pena Paredes and Altuve finally Altuve starting to pop up on our cards hitting much better than
01:20he did to start the season 10 at bats 10 at bats and 11 at bats but check a look at this
01:25600 iso power 300 iso power 700 iso power when we're talking about Pena Paredes and Altuve
01:32Yanir Diaz here 12 at bats against left-handed pitcher which isn't a big sample size still a 273
01:37iso and a weighted on base percentage of 455 I think we may get some damage in that lineup as it
01:42starts to wake up for the Houston Astros going up against Allen who is a left-handed pitcher who
01:47doesn't do very well against lefties but he's going to face all nine batters from the right
01:51hand side today and over the last 30 days that's a 351 weighted on base percentage you're probably
01:56going to get a pretty good price on the Houston Astros team total that's the way I would lean
01:59today if we're trying to price this one out DRS on May 21st the Astros were simply a game above 500
02:06they trailed Seattle by three and a half games in the American League West they then played a four game
02:11series against the M's took three of four Houston has won nine of their last 13 meanwhile the
02:17Mariners were just swept this week in Seattle by the Orioles that's something we did not expect to
02:23be the case and now Houston has that game and a half lead in the AL West let's head out to the twin
02:29cities in Minneapolis the twins a minus 156 favorite against the Blue Jays today to open up this set
02:36against Toronto eight and a half is that total the Blue Jays a victory yesterday eight to one
02:41over Philadelphia Phil something the Blue Jays playing pretty good ball in the last week and a
02:47half or so what's the play today in men Blue Jays bats are waking up here forget about the pitching
02:52matchup here for Toronto side because not too much going on there from you know a background check for
02:57that but Bailey Ober not a very good pitcher ex-fit wise that's the key ingredient he's had five starts
03:02in 23 to third innings over the past 30 days hasn't factored into the decision which I do think is
03:07pretty interesting here a 3.09 ERA hey sign me up right how about that ex-fit number over five you
03:12look at the first six guys in the lineup tonight for the Blue Jays 401 354 437 362 317 and 355 as a
03:21weighted on base percentage against right-handed pitching maybe a sneaky team total for Toronto
03:25outside of Toronto going up against over today
03:28you
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