- 10 months ago
Ukraine's "no surrender" attitude is on display, what with daring drone raids deep in Russian territory last weekend and a new attack on the Kerch Strait bridge that links Moscow-occupied Crimea to the mainland. These are spectacular shows, but can outgunned and outnumbered Kyiv keep it up?
The question is particularly timely with the US defence secretary skipping a meeting of the NATO support group on Ukraine this Wednesday. The US, for now, is still sharing intelligence and disbursing military aid allotted to Kyiv by the previous administration. But for how much longer?We ask the question ahead of the NATO summit later this month in the Netherlands, and ahead of Thursday’s Oval Office initiation for new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. What will the likes of Germany and France do if Trump loses interest entirely in Europe's defence and Ukraine's fate?Produced by Rebecca Gnignati, Aurore Laborie and Ilayda Habip.
Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
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The question is particularly timely with the US defence secretary skipping a meeting of the NATO support group on Ukraine this Wednesday. The US, for now, is still sharing intelligence and disbursing military aid allotted to Kyiv by the previous administration. But for how much longer?We ask the question ahead of the NATO summit later this month in the Netherlands, and ahead of Thursday’s Oval Office initiation for new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. What will the likes of Germany and France do if Trump loses interest entirely in Europe's defence and Ukraine's fate?Produced by Rebecca Gnignati, Aurore Laborie and Ilayda Habip.
Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
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00:00We've seen Ukraine's no-surrender attitude on display, what with daring drone raids deep inside of Russian territory last weekend and a new attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge that links Moscow-occupied Crimea to the mainland.
00:17Spectacular shows, but can outgunned and outnumbered Kiev keep it up, particularly with the U.S. Defense Secretary perhaps sending a signal,
00:27skipping a meeting of the NATO support group on Ukraine in Brussels, the U.S., which for now still shares intelligence and disperses military aid allotted to Kiev by the previous administration.
00:41But for how much longer? We'll ask ahead of the NATO summit later this month in the Netherlands and head of Thursday's Oval Office initiation for new German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz.
00:53What will the likes of Germany and France do if Trump loses interest entirely in Europe's defense and in the fate of Ukraine?
01:01Today in the France 24 debate, we're looking at the U.S. and the future of NATO.
01:05With us from Brussels, France 24 correspondent Dave Keating. How are things?
01:13Good evening, Francois.
01:15Former German ambassador to NATO Joachim Bitterlich is with us. Good to see you.
01:20Pleasure.
01:21And good to see former French ambassador to Russia, Claude Blanche Maison.
01:26Your memoirs are published in French, fragments of an adventurous parcours, an adventurous path, shall we say.
01:37Exactly.
01:37Yes. Thanks for joining us here.
01:41From Cambridge, Massachusetts, Mariana Budirin, senior research associate at Harvard University's Kennedy School's Belfer Center for International Affairs.
01:53I see that Harvard's been in the news of late. Welcome to the show.
01:57Thank you so much for inviting me.
01:59You can always listen. That's right. Listen to the show wherever podcasts are streamed.
02:06He will be a late arrival in Brussels.
02:10Pete Hegseth missing Wednesday's meeting of the Ukraine defense contact group at the alliance headquarters.
02:17He'll be there Thursday for the bigger meeting.
02:19So that defense, that contact group, instead chaired by Britain and Germany, they and the Ukrainians talking up missile defense initiatives and plans to share the leveling up of defense investment, European defense investment.
02:35Our partners came to me and asked if Ukrainian companies could build factories for producing their cutting edge products in their countries.
02:45And our partners said that they are willing to fully pay for all the production from these factories and that our partners will even appropriate more funding for this.
02:56Dave Keating, that sounds a little like the European answer to Donald Trump's rare minerals deal.
03:04It does, because this would certainly bring benefits to Europe as well.
03:11It's not escaped anyone's notice that, you know, one of the big reasons why people put forward that Ukraine belongs in the European Union and Ukraine would be an excellent asset for the European Union as a member is because they have such a developed military sector, which not a lot of EU countries can claim.
03:30And this would be an example of Ukraine kind of moving its military resources over toward the EU, sharing those with the EU in a way that, you know, a lot of people say if the U.S. withdraws, Ukraine could go a long way in kind of keeping the balance while the core EU countries ramp up their military spending from very, very low levels that they've had in the past decades.
03:54So I think this is this is exactly what people are talking about who want to see greater integration of Ukraine and the European Union, particularly militarily.
04:03But this will not go down well with the likes of Viktor Orban in Hungary, Robert Fizzo in Slovakia, those who are skeptical of Ukraine's future in the European Union and also skeptical of the EU getting too involved in Ukraine's defense.
04:19So, Dave, what about that empty chair?
04:22Officially, the reason given by the Pentagon is that Pete Hegseth had a scheduling conflict.
04:27Yeah, I don't think that's very believable, is it?
04:32I mean, already in April, at the last meeting of the Ukraine defense contact group, we were told that Pete Hegseth would not be attending.
04:41So that was actually supposed to be the first one where he wasn't there.
04:44However, at the last minute, he did join by video virtually from Washington.
04:49And so that was kind of the can was kicked down the road.
04:53But I think everybody saw this coming, that the U.S. has been stepping away from this contact group, which the U.S. created in 2022, immediately after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
05:04Already the U.S. backed away from its leadership of the group, turning it over to the U.K. and Germany a few months ago.
05:11And now there's no defense minister there at all.
05:14Now, the head of the U.S. mission to NATO was there, but he lives here.
05:19It's not really that this meeting is not intended for heads of mission.
05:23It's intended as defense ministers, and it has not gone unnoticed.
05:26It's seen as being an intentional signal to Europe that the U.S. is just not going to be involved in military militarily aiding Ukraine going forward.
05:37And if the Europeans want that to continue, they need to do it themselves.
05:40They need to do it themselves.
05:42NATO allies in need of reassurance.
05:44We're three weeks out from NATO's annual summit this year in the Netherlands, in The Hague.
05:49The White House did confirm Tuesday that Donald Trump will be going.
05:53Question is, will he be going to read the Riot Act to allies?
05:58The nagging doubts linger.
06:01There we see one that was put to rest.
06:03America's next top general in Europe will also lead NATO forces.
06:07Some were wondering if that would still be the case.
06:09And we heard the NATO Secretary General this Wednesday absolutely denying that there's a drawdown in the works of the 80,000-plus U.S. forces permanently stationed on this continent.
06:24There are no plans at the moment for the U.S. to withdraw troops.
06:27What we do know is that, one, the U.S. is completely committed to NATO.
06:33They expect European and Canadian landlines to spend much more.
06:39Reassured, Jachim Biederlees, listening to Mark Rutte there?
06:42No problem, if you want.
06:45I think headlines are a bit exaggerated.
06:48The Americans will, in my view, let's say, looking to two or three years ahead, reduce their troops in Europe.
06:57It will be clear.
06:5880,000 for the moment.
07:00The Americans have other priorities.
07:03And they will reduce and ask the Europeans to take more responsibility with regard to their own zone.
07:11It's clear for me.
07:13This is the American priority.
07:15It's clear.
07:16This will not mean disengagement.
07:19It won't mean disengagement.
07:21But what do you make of the absence of the U.S. Defense Secretary at that contact group meeting?
07:27Priorities.
07:28Like I said, the first goal has to prepare the summit on June 24th for Trump.
07:35It's clear.
07:37And therefore, priorities to be set down and to be applied.
07:41And the Americans have decided some weeks ago to hand over the chairmanship of the contact group to the British and the Germans.
07:50And they stick to it.
07:51Europeans have to take more responsibility with regard to European problems.
07:57You agree with that, Claude Blanche Maison?
07:59It's nothing more than that?
08:00We're reading too much into this MTJ?
08:03I agree with that.
08:03I mean, and I would just add that we are in a time of a certain uncertainty about what would be the exact attitude of Donald Trump, especially in this summit in The Hague.
08:17Then probably it was very uncomfortable.
08:22It would have been uncomfortable for the Defense Secretary to be sitting there today in this contact group for supporting Ukraine because he doesn't know exactly what Trump will say in the summit in a few weeks' time.
08:37So probably it was better to let the seat for the U.S. ambassador.
08:44And anyway, the group is now co-chaired, as you said, by the U.K. and by Germany.
08:50And therefore, the Americans have handed this chairmanship to two European countries, meaning by that that the European countries have to take the lead anyway in this Ukraine matter.
09:05But nobody knows exactly what will be the decision of Trump.
09:10You remember after his phone call of one and a half hour or more than that with Putin, Trump said, we'll see in a few weeks' time.
09:19I need three weeks' time and you'll see.
09:21So we don't know exactly what he will decide as far as supporting Ukraine is concerned.
09:29We know only that he wants the Europeans to take a larger part, of course, in NATO and also in supporting Ukraine.
09:38Well, Ukraine is very far from the U.S. It's far away.
09:41And I think the American people don't know exactly where it is, by the way, and they don't know why to spend so much money for Ukraine.
09:50It's a matter for Europeans.
09:52Marianna Boudjerine, is that how Americans see it?
09:55And do you agree with Ambassador Blanche Maison that if you're the U.S. Defense Secretary and you're not in Donald Trump's head, it's a losing game showing up at NATO and speaking on his behalf?
10:10Well, it's hard for me to speak on behalf of all Americans.
10:13But there seems to be the Secretary Hegseth's non-appearance of this contact group seems to be consistent with the administration's general approach to the issue of Ukraine and trying to end the war in Ukraine, reach some kind of a ceasefire,
10:31by playing not the part of unconditional support of Ukraine like his predecessor, but rather this neutral party that's trying not to aggravate President Putin, tries not to speak harshly of his aggression.
10:48We heard things like Ukraine is responsible for this war earlier on in this administration.
10:55So I think it's probably consistent with the overall approach to try and not lean too hard on either one of the sides to this conflict
11:06in order to still bring about some kind of peace settlement that Donald Trump clearly hopes very much for.
11:15All right. And by the way, Donald Trump has been, meanwhile, speaking to Vladimir Putin this Wednesday.
11:23That's an interesting coincidence.
11:25So Pete Hegseth doesn't meet with his Ukrainian counterpart in Brussels, but Trump speaks with his Russian counterpart.
11:34What does that tell you, Mariana?
11:38I think that the approach is that, you know, these big issues get decided on the highest level.
11:46Trump has claimed that he has a good relationship with Putin and he thinks he could leverage that to achieve some kind of progress in this ceasefire deal or peace settlement, whatever you want to call it.
11:59So far, we have not seen much progress through these means.
12:04Right. We've we've had one phone call earlier that was followed with some devastating attacks against Ukraine, waves of missile and drone attacks.
12:14Putin did not show up to Istanbul talks, even though Ukraine's President Zelensky did.
12:20So, you know, so, you know, I think Trump still has the hopes that his high level diplomacy, you know, between the big boys can get things sorted.
12:32But it doesn't look optimistic, but perhaps he hasn't quit trying.
12:38Joachim Biruich?
12:39I can't agree more.
12:41It's clear.
12:42Please, the Russians have put their cards on the table with a memorandum as their, let's call it, minimum of, let's say, agreement at the end of the day.
12:52The Americans have not done so, nor the Europeans, clearly.
12:59And I think he is a bit waiting in order to get the right moment, let's say, to advance.
13:05And there will be a certain coordination with the Europeans between with Trump in the next weeks, especially tomorrow's visit of Chancellor Mertz to Washington.
13:17He will have other contacts to see exactly where he could go with Putin or where he could not go with Putin.
13:25He has to see this.
13:26So you're saying Donald Trump's coming into the fold right now and that he won't be, this won't be his goodbye tour when he shows up at that NATO summit?
13:36No, no, I don't think so.
13:39Dave Keating, what's the view where you are?
13:45I mean, this sounds like a lot of wishful thinking to me.
13:48I think the view is that no one really knows what Donald Trump is going to do.
13:52But the expectation is that the Hague summit could really blow up if he decides to go there and make trouble.
14:00And that may indeed be the reason why Pete Hague-Seth didn't come today, although he will be coming here to Brussels tomorrow for the regular summit of defense ministers.
14:09But I'm not hearing a lot of optimism when you speak to people privately here that Donald Trump is seriously interested in peace or that he's seriously interested in NATO or that he's seriously interested in maintaining America's protection over Europe.
14:25There seem to be a lot of people who haven't really understood that message coming from Washington.
14:31It may be that Trump delivers it so bluntly in The Hague later this month that that message can no longer be ignored.
14:40Claude Blanche-Maison, if you're Ukrainian right now, you're nervous, right?
14:45Well, it's quite clear that Putin won't make any concession.
14:50He wants a kind of surrender of Ukraine and is winning time.
14:57So he doesn't want to break completely with Trump.
15:01So he continues to discuss with Trump because it's useful for him.
15:06But he will not make any concession because he's convinced that time is playing for himself.
15:14And he didn't change anything during the last three years on the real aims of this war.
15:23He wants a capitulation of Ukraine.
15:27He wants to having the annexation recognized by, if possible, the other countries, if not possible, recognized by the ceasefire agreement when there will be a ceasefire.
15:43He wants also demilitarization of the rest of Ukraine.
15:47And demilitarization of the rest of Ukraine, of course, is completely unacceptable for everybody.
15:52He wants also a sort of zone tampon, how would you say that?
15:59A buffer zone.
16:00A buffer zone on the north, on the north, in the region of Kursk and Bryansk.
16:09And this buffer zone is not quite clear, but it's taken on the soil of Ukraine again.
16:16Not both sides, but only on the side of Ukraine.
16:20And who will be keeping this buffer zone as a buffer zone?
16:25Nobody knows.
16:26I mean, he has said that it should be neutral people, neutral troops.
16:31So therefore, he doesn't agree that it could be American who would be keeping the ceasefire.
16:36So that's why probably there will be a third meeting between the Russians and the Ukrainians, probably in Istanbul.
16:47And there again, he's winning time, he's buying time, because time is, he thinks it's working.
16:54It's on his side.
16:54Yes.
16:54So certainly a maximalist approach by the Russian president.
16:59The Ukrainians, well, they've been answering in kind in the past week.
17:04In fact, many of the questions at that press conference earlier of the British, German and Ukrainian defense minister were about Operation Spiderweb,
17:12those sophisticated drone attacks that over the weekend, they went as far away as the Arctic and Siberia,
17:19took out at least a dozen Russian planes, more than 40, according to Kiev.
17:23That was bookended by last Saturday's sabotage of a rail bridge in Bryonsk region and a third attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge,
17:32the one that links Crimea to the Russian mainland.
17:35Antoni Kerrigan has more.
17:381,100 kilograms of explosives detonated on the seabed, hitting the load-bearing pillars of the Crimea Bridge, says Kiev.
17:47Essential for transporting supplies to Russian forces, the bridge has a dual carriageway road and double-track railway.
17:54Measuring 19 kilometers from east to west, it was a flagship Russian infrastructure project,
18:00opened in 2018 to link Russia to Crimea after they annexed the peninsula four years earlier.
18:05Moscow said the bridge had only been closed for three hours, but it's a coup for Kiev,
18:10just days after they launched a massive drone attack this weekend that destroyed dozens of Russian planes at airbases as far away as Siberia.
18:19But on Ukrainian soil, civilian casualties continue.
18:23Several were killed by rockets in the northeastern city of Sumi and dozens more were injured.
18:28A woman who was nearby suffered a severe abdominal injury.
18:35We dragged her into the pharmacy and did everything we could, but the injury was serious.
18:40I don't know what happened to her after that.
18:42Then the paramedics arrived, we helped load her into the vehicle, and they took her to the hospital.
18:51Sumi has been a key hub for organizing Ukraine's months-long incursion into the Kursk region,
18:56and as such has been a frequent target of Russian strikes.
19:00President Zelensky said last week that Moscow was preparing to send tens of thousands of troops into the region.
19:07The cities of Odessa and Chernihiv were also targeted on Monday night,
19:11and the day after ceasefire negotiations in Istanbul,
19:14President Zelensky repeated his call for decisive action from Europe and the US to force Moscow into a ceasefire.
19:21Yeah, and speaking of Sumi, Russia's army says it's captured another village in that region,
19:27the latest in a string of gains, as Moscow seeks to establish what Ambassador Blanche Maison was referring to,
19:36that buffer zone inside of Ukrainian territory.
19:41There you see Sumi on the map.
19:44Marianna Budgerin, when you weigh up the Russian incremental gains,
19:49the time is on our side attitude versus those daring drone attacks so deep inside of Russian territory,
20:00has it been a good week for which side?
20:05Well, it's a war of attrition, right?
20:08It's hard to judge about the progress of this war, state of this war, just based on one weekend.
20:14Of course, what Ukrainians had showed is that, you know,
20:17the rumors of Ukraine's imminent demise are certainly exaggerated.
20:22And generally, the whole narrative that Russia is winning and Ukraine is losing,
20:27and somehow that Ukraine is doomed,
20:31that's not a narrative that's constructive or anywhere closer to the truth.
20:34Ukraine has agency and has determination.
20:38And even though it is generally a weaker party with lesser amount of resources,
20:44it's more creative, right?
20:46Here in Ukraine is, yes, we're smaller, yes, we're weaker.
20:49That means we have to be smarter.
20:51And so the Sunday's attacks, drone attacks,
20:55have shown that Ukrainians are capable of being smarter and more inventive.
20:59Now, we don't know what else Ukrainians have up their sleeves
21:02in terms of long-term operations that are being planned.
21:08The incremental gains by the Russians are, of course, very painful,
21:12but they're also very painful for the Russians as well.
21:15They're losing a ton of people along the front line.
21:20And, you know, with the support of the European partners,
21:25Ukraine is not a lost cause.
21:27With the sufficient support,
21:30Ukraine could certainly at least freeze this front line
21:33and stop Russian advances.
21:36That's what it seems from the Ukrainian standpoint.
21:39Klob Lashbizov, as former ambassador to Russia,
21:42let me ask you, this is a vast country, right?
21:43It goes from the Baltic to the Pacific.
21:45It's huge.
21:46It's the largest country in the world by geographical size.
21:49These drone attacks, do they dent Russia's psyche?
21:56The idea that, well, because we're so big, we're invulnerable, right?
21:59Well, my personal view is that Putin is really now obsessed by Ukraine.
22:06He was not so much obsessed when I was posted in Moscow in 2000 or 2003, 2004.
22:14But now it's really an obsession because he has rewritten the history and he pursued himself
22:22that it should be part of Russia.
22:25But I think this obsession is on Ukraine and he wants Ukraine to surrender one way or another.
22:32But he has no view on other countries.
22:35But ordinary Russians, what do they think of these drone attacks?
22:38I mean, you know, near Murmansk, near the Norwegian border, for instance.
22:42What do they think about this?
22:44Well, probably, probably, of course, he's very worried about that because he didn't know
22:49that the Ukrainians were able to do that.
22:52And he didn't know also that they would dare to do that without the permission of the U.S.,
22:59of course.
23:00And they did it.
23:01And more than that, they made a personal offense to Putin by attacking the bridge,
23:07the Kerch bridge.
23:08Because, after all, this attack, the third attack on the Kerch bridge, is not so much
23:13of military signification, but it's a personal attack against Putin because it's a personal
23:20thing.
23:21And it has been built by Mr. Rothenberg, an oligarch very close to him.
23:28And they have been making money together also.
23:32So this is really a slap on his face.
23:36And I think he has been hating Zelensky.
23:40And today he's hating much more again Zelensky.
23:43He doesn't want to deal with Zelensky, who dare to do that.
23:47You heard Marianna Bujarin saying, people wondering what else Ukraine can do.
23:54Well, first of all, for me, it's the most interesting was the silence from Washington
23:59and from Moscow about these attacks.
24:02For me, it's not Pearl Harbor.
24:05It's totally exaggerated, but a serious damage, let's say, to the Russians and a serious violation
24:12of the Russian ego.
24:13Yeah, because some of these planes are the ones that carry nuclear missiles.
24:17Yes, yes.
24:19And this is a serious attack, a serious damage too.
24:22And the Russians, well, were surprised.
24:27And they need a certain time to reflect what can we do now under these circumstances in order
24:33to hit more the Ukrainians.
24:35And they have difficulties to find it because when you look at, Claude, when you look at
24:40the Northern Front, there is not a real offensive of the Russians.
24:44They are small, let's say, steps forward from one village to the next.
24:48That's all.
24:49It's not a real offensive.
24:50There's been a troop buildup, though.
24:52Yes, but with what aim, what are the real forces?
24:58We don't know enough about this.
25:01But the Russians see clearly the Ukrainians are defending themselves in a smarter way.
25:09Yes, smarter than the Russians.
25:11The Russians have not really learned, let's say, in military strategy insofar.
25:16They follow their classical scheme up till now.
25:19The Ukrainians have to learn to, because, for example, I hear from specialists that the
25:25Ukrainians are not able to use the German Leopard tank as the Germans do it.
25:31They have real difficulties with these weapons, with certain weapons.
25:34But on the other hand, when I compare it to drones, the Ukrainians are far ahead from,
25:40let's say, from Western Europe.
25:41Far ahead insofar.
25:44And, therefore, it's extremely difficult, let's say, to see the right moment where you
25:51could bring about a ceasefire and, let's say, a peace settlement at the end of the day.
25:57I don't see it for the moment, frankly spoken.
26:00And what's on the table is, let's say, the Russian plan, largely accepted by Trump people
26:07weeks ago.
26:08And when I look back to the proposals I've written myself, 2019, after my last stay in
26:17Moscow, we are far away, let's say, from even such, let's say, a face-saving solution
26:23for the Ukraine.
26:24We are far away at the end of the day.
26:27But under what circumstances we could, let's say, reach a solution where the Ukrainians can
26:34tell, well, we have not lost the war.
26:37And the Russians, at the same time, can say, well, we have won the war.
26:43This is...
26:45And what, it's difficult, and at the same time, what we're seeing is perhaps more and more
26:50countries being drawn in to keep up its offensive.
26:53Vladimir Putin again dispatching his national security chiefs of Pyongyang, Sergei Shoigu,
26:59welcomed by a North Korean strongman, Kim Jong-un, North Korea, which has been supplying
27:04both soldiers and ammunition for Russia's war effort.
27:07That cannot be without China's blessing, said France's president last week, Emmanuel Macron
27:13in Singapore, addressing the big Shangri-La dialogue security forum.
27:17During the past few years, I had objected to NATO having any role in Asia, because for me, N
27:25is for North Atlantic.
27:27And because I don't believe in being enrolled in someone else's strategic rivalry.
27:34But what's happening with North Korea being present alongside with Russia on the European
27:40soil is a big question for all of us.
27:43And this is why, if China doesn't want NATO being involved in the Southeast Asia or in
27:49Asia, they should prevent, clearly, DPRK to be engaged on the European soil.
27:59Code Blanche Maison, that's a direct call to China, saying, rain in North Korea.
28:08Were you surprised Emmanuel Macron made that statement?
28:10I think the speech of President Macron in Shangri-La dialogue is an important speech, because
28:15in fact, he meant that this war in Ukraine is now a globalized war.
28:23And the proof of it is that North Korea, a rogue state and a very strong sanction for the
28:30UN, is giving ammunition to Ukraine and all that.
28:35And probably without the blessing of China.
28:40I'm not sure that the trip of Shogu in Pyongyang is very, very, he's pleasing Xi Jinping today.
28:51Because by that, of course, Russia is attracting this rogue state, North Korea, in his own area
28:59of influence, and it was normally meant that North Korea was under the protection of China.
29:08But they don't, they don't listen to Chinese advice at all.
29:12I mean, they, they, they, they.
29:13So wait, are you telling me, because it's really, are you telling me, Emmanuel Macron is
29:18speaking, is wrong then in telling China to reign in North Korea?
29:21Well, because, well, I don't think, I don't think China gave, gave an agreement to what
29:30North Korea has been doing.
29:31Because as you remember, China, as well, never recognized the annexation of Crimea.
29:41I mean, and China say, we must respect the international order.
29:47Of course, we want the international order to be bona fide, but to be bona fide by the
29:51inside, by playing with the international order.
29:54We must respect the international law and the integrity, the sovereignty of independent
30:04states.
30:05So they don't like what Putin has been doing.
30:07Of course, they won't say it publicly, but they tell us that they don't like it.
30:11And at the same time, and it's contradictory.
30:13They don't like it, but Xi Jinping shows up on, at May 9th for the victory day.
30:17Yeah, okay, but, okay, this is limited.
30:19This is limited to some extent.
30:21But at the same time, the Russians want to reinforce the relationship with North Korea in
30:29order to reduce their dependence on China.
30:32This is the political strategic goal behind it.
30:35In any case, there's either way, no hard feelings from Beijing over Macron's speech.
30:40Shares in European consortium Airbus up this Wednesday after Bloomberg News reported that
30:47Beijing's considering a purchase, a huge purchase of up to 300 narrow and wide-bodied aircraft.
30:54Ukraine viewing the news suspiciously, particularly after the same Bloomberg News agency reported
30:59last week that Beijing had stopped selling Mavic drones to Ukraine that are used for photography
31:05and to other Western countries, all the while continuing to supply them to Russia.
31:12Dave Keating, China in all of this, are they squarely sovereignists or not?
31:22But in the case of those drones, why say no to selling them to the Europeans and the Ukrainians,
31:30but yes to Russia?
31:33I think because China has a big strategic interest in this war ending as quickly as possible,
31:39as does the Trump administration.
31:41And it was referenced before, Washington's silence in reaction to Ukraine's offensive of the past
31:48week.
31:49It's also been silence from China, because I think this really complicates things for those
31:54administrations in Washington and in Beijing who want this war ended by whatever means,
32:01that they don't really care about whether Crimea is signed off over to Russia, whether Donbass
32:08has signed off over to Russia. Their main strategic goal is to end the war, and if it ends on Russia's
32:14terms, so be it. With Ukraine having this big show of strength, it actually complicates the
32:19Trump administration's goal of wrapping this up quickly, and for China, the same. So I think
32:26that's the reason why China would not want to support Ukraine, supply Ukraine with any type
32:31of equipment that will further prolong the war. It is in Washington and Beijing's interest
32:36for Ukraine to be weak, for Ukraine to not have the cards, as Trump insisted, because in their
32:44view, that makes the war end quicker.
32:47Marianne Boudirian, what was your reaction when you heard that clip of France's president?
32:53Well, I think Macron put the Chinese on the spot. I mean, I agree that they don't, you know,
32:59North Koreans are not their puppet regime, but I think it was the kind of message that
33:03you have to exert influence of this. If we're talking about spheres of influence, this is your
33:09chance, right, to make a statement. And I don't think the news about the Mavic FPV drones is really
33:18that drastic. I mean, yes, China perhaps had to show a stance or some kind of response to this drone
33:25attack, but surely Ukraine could procure these drones through third parties. It would be a little bit
33:33more complicated, but it does not mean that Ukraine's kind of supply of drones will quickly
33:39dry up. So I view these more as political moves and political reactions and statements than anything
33:48that will have a tangible effect on the battlefield. Although I do agree that possibly the prospects
33:57of a peace settlement are dim, but I think they were dim before these drone attacks anyways.
34:05So nothing much will change in that sphere.
34:09Nothing much will change. What we have seen, though, is this push to level up. And we saw it again this
34:16Wednesday as the German Chancellor, Friedrich Mertz, travels to Washington as Defense Minister Boris Pistorius,
34:23announcing that Germany would kick off a new initiative to find more air defenses for Ukraine.
34:36We may see Friedrich Mertz offer to buy Patriot missiles from the Americans. We saw talk as well of
34:44perhaps trying to manufacture more here in Europe. But certainly something is in the works when it comes
34:51to trying to pick up the slack if Donald Trump decides he no longer wants to finance military
34:57support for Ukraine. No, you have a double goal at the same time. On the one hand, how to maintain
35:04the support to Ukraine by military means, and at the same time, how to get the arms, let's say,
35:11rapidly in, the necessary arms. And the first and utmost is air defense for the Ukrainians. It's clear.
35:17With drones, it works rather well, even better than others. But the real subject is air defense,
35:26and the Ukrainians will have at the same time to learn to use these modern Western European or American
35:34weapons. And therefore, to find, let's say, this right mixture. And I add to this another subject to
35:42Mertz's visit to Washington. What could be the right, let's say, means to get Putin seriously at the
35:51table of negotiations? Because up to now, it's not serious. These are secondary subjects.
35:56And can Friedrich Mertz be the man to do that?
36:00Well, the question is, I put the simple question. Up to now, we have done so many sanctions,
36:0617 packages of sanctions. Result? Well, I've doubts about these sanctions. I've been dealing
36:14in Brussels, all the sanction cases in my Brussels past. The success story has been only one,
36:20South Africa. The whole rest never worked. But did we take the right sanctions or the right
36:27means to get the Russians on the table, let's say, to have, to get at least a, let's say,
36:33suitable agreement for both sides. Defendable. What's not defendable will be Ukraine. In NATO,
36:40it's clear for me. A neutral status, yes, but not a dependent status on Russia. What to do with
36:47the eastern provinces in Ukraine? Crimea, for me, is away, if you want. I don't see any step back.
36:56But at least to get something where the Ukrainians could live with. And I'm looking for what could
37:03be the right means, let's say, to tell Putin, now you can stop it, please, and leave the Ukrainians
37:11in peace and what they would like to do. And for that, Dave Keating, you'll need to convince
37:17Donald Trump. Are people where you are betting on the new chancellor of Germany?
37:26There's certainly going to be a lot of eyes on that meeting tomorrow. I think particularly because
37:32Merz has been more outspoken than most in terms of Europe needing to, as he put it, become independent
37:38of the United States. So the big question is, is he going to be a little more prickly in that meeting
37:45with Donald Trump than Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer were in their very chummy meetings with
37:52Donald Trump? If he does, if he does choose to go in that route, it could not go very well. Of course,
37:59he doesn't have a previous relationship with Donald Trump. We don't know how Donald Trump has reacted
38:05to some of the comments Merz has made. We're not really sure if he's aware of them, but he could be made aware
38:11of them before this meeting and things could really go south. I'm not hearing much hope that Merz is
38:17going to be able to smooth talk Trump into coming on side here in supporting Europe and supporting
38:25Ukraine. There's not the same type of hope I heard with Macron when some people call him the Trump
38:30whisperer or that Starmer could charm him. I'm not hearing any kind of hope for that. What I am hearing
38:37is fears that it could go very wrong. At the same time, though, I'm hearing from a lot of people
38:42they would like to see somebody in that Oval Office stand up for Europe, stand up to Trump in a way that
38:49no European leader has been willing to do so far. So it's always a bit of political theater,
38:54Mariana Bujarin. When you go to the Oval Office these days, you heard Dave Keating reference the visits
39:00by Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer. We saw Mark Carney. We saw most recently Cyril Ramaphosa. And of
39:07course, we saw Volodymyr Zelensky. Surely the German chancellor has a strategy. What would you be
39:14saying if you were whispering, not in Trump's ear, but in Friedrich Merz's ear at this point?
39:18I would probably tell Mark that to forsake hope to influence Trump and just make announce to him or
39:34make him aware of Europe's plan and strategic interest and providing for its own security.
39:41And then hoping that Trump will see Europe as a strong and self-sufficient partner.
39:49I really don't think any kind of whispering in Trump's ear, flattery or any other strategies
39:56that have been tried would be successful. He's a very unpredictable man. And you can't base your
40:04own security on these kinds of mood swings. Claude Blanche Maison?
40:09Well, of course, I don't know, but I'm quite convinced that Chancellor Merz will say
40:16some nice words to Donald Trump. In English?
40:20In English, of course, and saying that he made a lot of progress since he has been taken over
40:28in the White House. But still, he will also say that this situation is Ukraine is very dangerous. And
40:36And if Ukraine was going to lose, after all, it would be also a victory for Putin and something very
40:49serious for the United States themselves, not only for Western Europe, but also for Mr.
40:54Trump. Or Mr. Trump is a winner, not a loser. So he will probably play that kind of argument.
41:02Whether it will work or not, I don't know. But we have seen Trump moving a little bit on having
41:10some doubts about Putin, saying that, well, he's a real difficult guy. But at each time he was saying
41:18that Zelensky was also a difficult guy. So probably Chancellor Merz, after Macron and after the
41:28Prime Minister of the UK, will say, it's not possible that you become a loser. Of course,
41:37Trump cannot be a loser. So you have to come with us. And you have to stay with us on the Ukraine issue.
41:45This regards four subjects. The first one, between Merz and Trump, will be
41:53commerce between trade between the US and Europe. It's an important subject. Let's say the aim,
41:59let's say, to come to, let's say, to a solution or to an agreement before the summer. The second one
42:06will be, please, dear American, take your interests. Realpolitik is interest policy. Accept a larger role
42:14of the Europeans within NATO. You will stay there. We will take over more responsibility. The third one
42:21is Ukraine. How to, let's say, balance it. And the fourth one, let's not forget it, is China, please.
42:27Because the Americans have deep interest in, let's say, seeing the Europeans not too far away from them
42:34with regard to China. Because the next real task of Trump will be to get an agreement with Xi
42:42on the trade subject. It's clear. And therefore, I think, I think Merz will be ready, I think, to
42:52talk to Trump on pure, what I call interest-based goals. Because he underlines, he understands the
43:01American interests insofar. He sees the European interests. And I think Trump will listen to him
43:10more than we have been thinking, let's say, in the first weeks of his new American administration
43:17with the strange attacks of Vance and others. It will be another tone, another style.
43:22We shall see in any case. I want to thank you so much, Joachim Bidolich, for being with us.
43:27Claude Blanche Maison. Marianna Boudjerin in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Dave Keating in Brussels.
43:35Thank you for being with us here in the France 24 debate.
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