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00:00Some degree of confusion surrounds the fate of that U.S. proposed truce deal for the war in Gaza.
00:05The deal, which would be guaranteed by the White House, Egypt and Qatar,
00:08proposes a 60-day-long ceasefire and the release of 28 Israeli hostages, both dead and alive, within the first week.
00:15Now, in exchange, Israel would release 1,236 Palestinian prisoners and the remains of 180 dead Palestinians.
00:23While Israeli media reported that Benjamin Netanyahu had accepted that deal,
00:27Hamas officials later said on Friday that they are currently reviewing it, even though it fails to meet any of its demands.
00:34Well, for more on the latest, then, Tahani Mustafa joins us on the program.
00:37She is the senior Palestine analyst at the International Crisis Group.
00:41Tahani, thank you so very much for joining us today.
00:44So, as we heard there, it looks like Hamas is still weighing that U.S.-backed proposal, though it doesn't meet its demands.
00:51What do you imagine the major sticking points are?
00:54Well, I think the major sticking points are more the language that the U.S. was trying to sort of smooth over to make more palatable to the Israeli government.
01:06And that was something we were hearing even just before this recent potential rejection now coming from Hamas,
01:12which is, I think, the two main sticking points here for the U.S., at least, were that on the one hand,
01:18they were trying to get Hamas to rein in their demands and on the other, trying to sort of work or smooth the language over in order to get Israel to accept.
01:26And what we now end up, sorry, ended up happening, was that you now have a U.S.-brokered proposal that effectively is so ambiguous in its language that it gives Israel the kind of leeway
01:39in order to effectively not act in good faith and be able to what I think, at least from Hamas's understanding, would be to not just rescind on certain protocols that would be agreed upon,
01:52but more importantly, be able to break those possible protocols, as we saw back in November 2023,
01:57where there was so much ambiguity in their language that Israel was able to find leeways in what had been assumed was a mutually understood terms of the agreement.
02:07And that's exactly what this proposal now does.
02:09So it's not so much about demands and timelines.
02:12It's really just the ambiguity that is giving Israel the effective leeway in order to break whatever will be agreed upon.
02:20On the Palestinian side, Tahani, you have written quite extensively about how Palestine needs more political unity
02:25in order to negotiate with Israel and bring about something that's more realistic and sustainable in terms of peace.
02:30What has prevented the different factions, notably, of course, Hamas and Fatah, from reaching more of a consensus thus far?
02:39Well, look, the political factions have reached a consensus.
02:41I think the majority of Palestinian factions, including Fatah itself, has reached a consensus as to what is needed in order to bridge those divides,
02:50form a united front, engage in constructive negotiations,
02:53to try and put an end to the suffering in Gaza, as well as Israel's onslaught in the West Bank.
02:58The problem, the biggest obstacle here, has been Mahmoud Abbas.
03:01You know, this was something that even regional mediators were complaining about back in, again, 2023, early 2024,
03:08that the PA had effectively isolated itself,
03:11that it is relegating negotiations to what is considered to be an international pariah,
03:15a non-starter for Israel, for the US,
03:17all the while refusing to engage with regional actors,
03:21never mind even Palestinian factions,
03:23going against the wishes of these factions,
03:26and worse yet, really just isolating itself to speaking only to the Americans and Israel's Western backers,
03:32the very forces that right now are not just refusing to rein Israel back in,
03:37but are giving it the logistical means to continue its onslaught in both territories,
03:42the West Bank and Gaza.
03:43Now, I mean, speaking of some of the mediators
03:47and some of the backing that Israel has seen from the West,
03:50I think it's been rather surprising to see how much of a laid-back view, so to speak,
03:55some of the Arab nations have taken when it comes to putting pressure
03:59either on Israel or on the United States to end the war quicker.
04:03Why do you think that that has happened the way that it has?
04:06Why have they taken seemingly a backseat,
04:08or at least made it so that Gaza takes the backseat,
04:10in terms of the important issues to be addressed?
04:13Well, look, regional states' interests are no longer what they used to be.
04:19I think they've become far more focused on their own sort of self-preservation, domestic politics.
04:25You know, a lot of these states, Egypt, Jordan,
04:28you know, many of these states are already dealing with quite a precarious sort of balance
04:33between their own sort of, I guess you could say,
04:36the lack of regime legitimacy and popularity,
04:38and the growing frustration on the ground and disconnect with their own populations.
04:43This was something that, you know,
04:44was something that was kind of plaguing these countries before the 7th of October.
04:47Now we're obviously seeing that far more clearly post-7th of October,
04:52where their foreign policies aren't gelling with local sentiment vis-a-vis the war in Gaza at the moment.
04:57But in the way of being able to actually leverage any power over Israel here,
05:02again, these are not zero-sum relationships.
05:04Israel has as much to gain from these states as they have to gain from their relationships,
05:08security, economic and political with Israel.
05:11And more importantly, you're talking about states that, one,
05:13don't actually have any serious capacity in the way of being able to rein Israel back in,
05:19the way that, you know, if we were to look to states like the U.S.,
05:22but more importantly, these states themselves are so heavily dependent on U.S. assistance,
05:27especially when we look at states like Egypt and Jordan.
05:30They're, you know, some of the biggest recipients of U.S. aid in the world.
05:33So being able to effectively go against what is now, you know,
05:39considered to be U.S. interests vis-a-vis their own ally in the region, Israel,
05:44would be almost political suicide for these states.
05:47They are effectively U.S. satellites here.
05:49And we also don't see the U.S. showing any signs really at all of willing to rein in
05:54Israel, aside from some very brief remarks that the U.S. president made when he was on
05:59his regional tour of the Middle East.
06:00So what do you think is most likely to be a part of a ceasefire deal that ultimately
06:04both Israel and Hamas would realistically accept?
06:10Well, I think what we're seeing now, which is on offer, which is a pause,
06:13is really the best we can hope for in the way of U.S. brokering.
06:18I don't think we can really expect much else from the U.S. at the moment.
06:21We're not getting any rhetoric to the effect of, and we're certainly not seeing any action
06:24to the effect of.
06:25I think the best we can hope for right now is what is being put on offer now, which is
06:31a 60-day pause.
06:32Whether that actually ends up translating into an actual pause is something else.
06:38I think Hamas have learned that, you know, it's not just a case of then resuming the
06:43killing machine after 60 days, but more importantly, I think the brutality with what comes with
06:49the resumption of open warfare, you know, since the January ceasefire and the resumption
06:54two months later, I think Israel's campaign has been more brutal than anything we've seen
07:00in the 14 months that preceded it.
07:02Tahani Mustafa of the International Crisis Group, thank you so very much for coming on the
07:05show today.