As global power shifts, ASEAN, the Gulf states, and China are quietly realigning through pragmatic, strategic partnerships amid rising U.S.-China tensions. Anas Hayyan from ASLI provides his insights.
00:00Now, as the geopolitical chessboard shifts and the balance of power grows increasingly multipolar,
00:07a quiet yet significant realignment is unfolding in Asia and the Middle East.
00:12The recent convergence of ASEAN, the Gulf Cooperation Council or GCC and China
00:17marks more than just a diplomatic gesture.
00:20It hints at a recalibration of global partnerships rooted in pragmatism,
00:25economic ambition and strategic hedging.
00:27How sustainable is this, especially against the backdrop of intensifying US-China rivalry?
00:34We speak with Anis Hayan, he's an analyst at the Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute or ASLI to unpack this further.
00:41So, Anas, given ASEAN's traditional stance of neutrality, how sustainable is this position amid intensifying US-China rivalry,
00:49especially with the bloc's increasing engagements with both China and the GCC?
00:54Well, thank you so much, Hafiz.
00:56I think the global community should really know that ASEAN is a force to be reckoned with.
01:02The market speaks for itself for ASEAN.
01:04We have a combined GDP that stands at about US$3.8 trillion,
01:08making it the fifth largest economy in the world with roughly 450 million middle-class consumers.
01:15So, these economic powers give ASEAN a strong voice and strategic importance in the global order.
01:20That's number one.
01:21And coming back to your question, yes, ASEAN is still maintaining its neutrality.
01:26It has never closed its door to any major power, and it should not.
01:30And we understand that, of course, some ASEAN countries may have closer ties to either the US or China,
01:37but ASEAN as a bloc has consistently pursued a balanced approach in this sense.
01:43So, what we saw at the recent ASEAN Summit, if I may share, over the past two days really reflects,
01:49I think, this unity and this forward momentum as a bloc.
01:53We are focused on cooperation, dialogue, and mutual respect among all parties that is involved.
01:58But if ASEAN has never behaved as a cohesive bloc, then its risk remaining divided and less influential.
02:07So, leveraging collective economic strength and potential will be one of ASEAN's key strategic advantages moving forward.
02:14So, Anas, to what extent does China's participation in this trilateral framework enhance its influence within the Southeast Asia and the Gulf region?
02:23Could this be viewed as part of China's broader strategy to counterbalance US influence?
02:29I really like to talk about this topic because I want to re-emphasize the need for ASEAN to engage with everyone.
02:35Of course, it is natural and necessary for ASEAN to engage closely with its neighbor, which is China, given their deep economic and historical ties.
02:44However, we must not forget that in the plenary session, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has also mentioned
02:49that he has sent a letter to President Donald Trump to organize the US-ASEAN meeting.
02:55And so, this shows ASEAN's commitment to maintaining balanced partnerships.
02:59But coming back to the questions, well, I would like to bring back the discussion on the partners that ASEAN is engaging.
03:06Because if you see the items discussed during the ASEAN GCC China Summit,
03:10it is perhaps the right thing to be discussed and to be espoused.
03:14Because first, they talked about the crisis in the world, and especially in Gaza, to call for the killing to stop.
03:21And then that aspect was on trade to establish a trade mechanism that is non-discriminatory and inclusive.
03:27So, they are talking about the importance to uphold the role of WTO to protect the community in this region.
03:33And, of course, they also talk about energy transition and based under the Paris Agreement.
03:38So, these are the shared values.
03:40So, if I can say that one thing is clear, it is easier to work with partners who are constructive and serious,
03:46no matter who that is, and we could see it now.
03:49Yes.
03:49So, what potential challenges or opportunities do you foresee?
03:54Because, of course, FTAs are also in discussion here.
03:57In the final minute that we have, you know, maybe you can share with us what you think about challenges and opportunities
04:02in negotiating such agreements.
04:05I think we have already seen progress.
04:07ASEAN has already concluded the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area 3.0.
04:12And we could see the massive potential with over US$25 trillion market and a population of over 2 billion people.
04:20So, it is bringing the potential market that is bringing unique expertise, resources, and dynamic markets to the table.
04:29So, ultimately, Hafiz, I think the key to success here for the region is it lies within building an agreement that are balanced,
04:38inclusive, and sensitive to each party's national interest.
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