Seth Payne and Sean Pendergast go through the early betting spreads for the Texans' games and what artificial intelligence has to say about the schedule.
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00:00Spreads are out on the 17 Texan games this year.
00:04We won't go through all of them here.
00:05I just think there are a few interesting ones.
00:07For what it's worth, for those looking to get down early here,
00:09I had seen the spread open at minus 2.5 for the opener against the Rams.
00:16Rams favored by 2.5.
00:18The outlet I'm looking at now for the 17 is the Rams at minus 3.5.
00:24I kind of like the Texans.
00:25If that thing's over a field goal, I like the Texans plus 3.5 in that game.
00:30If you're giving me more than a field goal in that game, I'll take it.
00:33That feels about right in that game.
00:35That feels like a game that could come down to who's got the ball last.
00:39Yeah, look, the Rams' offense typically, at times at least,
00:46they struggle early in the season.
00:48And part of the philosophy or theory, the theories for some people about that
00:53is that they don't play any of their starters in the preseason.
00:56They barely, it's like they try to rest their starters as much as possible.
01:00So, D'Amico's defense does not need to as much, whether they play guys or not,
01:06it's just a lot easier to play defense without as much practice.
01:11So, I like the defense versus old Matt Stafford in that game, if his wife lets him play.
01:15But what I get nervous about is the Texans' offensive line versus a very good defensive line.
01:22Everything I just said about how, hey, if you've got a good pass rush especially,
01:25you can just get out on the field and get after it, the Rams can do that.
01:30So, my biggest concern really is what does the offensive line look like week one?
01:36Are they ready for a team like the Rams defense?
01:38Yeah.
01:39Yeah, I don't know what the total is on that game, but if I'm listening to you kind of handicap
01:42and break that thing down, it might be an under game.
01:45That might be a game where the two defenses eat.
01:48You know, that might be a 20-17 kind of game.
01:51You know, both defensive fronts are getting after it and putting the opposing offense
01:57in bad down and distance situations and things like that.
01:59I could definitely see it.
02:02Take away from spreads on these games.
02:04The Texans are favored in nine of their 17 games.
02:08So, if we're just going by the spreads, and it never goes this way, but the Texans,
02:13that lines up with what Vegas thinks about them overall.
02:16Their win total is nine and a half in most places.
02:18They're favored in nine of their 17 games.
02:21The thing that is most eye-opening to me, Seth, is that a lot of these teams,
02:25whereas last year the Texans, I think, went into the season viewed as an ascending team
02:30that you could talk about in the same breath with the teams, like the contenders in the AFC.
02:38And obviously, we didn't know how things were going to go with the offensive line,
02:41but I think they were viewed that way in this community, in the gambling community.
02:46They're viewed right now on the same level as teams like the Buccaneers and the Seahawks.
02:52You know, like these are games, the games where the spreads are under two.
02:59Texans minus one and a half at home against the Buccaneers,
03:02which means on a neutral field, the Buccaneers would be favored against the Houston Texans.
03:06Yeah, yeah, yeah.
03:07No, and I think that all makes sense if you just look at the, for one,
03:13the defense for the Texans is very, very good,
03:15but they allowed way more points than a genuinely elite defense.
03:19And it's not just because the offense wasn't good.
03:22It's because the Texans had way too many breakdowns in the secondary,
03:26and they allowed a boatload of passing touchdowns.
03:28They allowed, they were one of the league leaders in long touchdown passes for touchdowns.
03:34They just, they would play really, really well 95% of the time and let up a big play.
03:39So they need to hem some of those things.
03:42The offense actually making big plays, they're a league leader in interceptions and sacks,
03:48tackles for a loss, all of those things.
03:50They were in the top three or four for all those categories.
03:52They just had to be more consistent.
03:54But the offense just wasn't good.
03:55It wasn't a good offense.
03:56So I, like, you can't, if the defense, the defense allowed about,
04:01they were 16th in scoring, I think.
04:03Yeah.
04:03Or the team was 16th in defense and touchdowns or score points allowed.
04:07And then the offense was a middling to subpar offense for most of the year.
04:13So that, they should be a 500 team right now.
04:15The Niners are favored at NRG Stadium as of right now in week eight.
04:19The 49ers.
04:20Disrespect.
04:21On the road.
04:22The 49ers.
04:23Now they're also, Vegas also thinks their win total is 10 and a half.
04:27Like Vegas just flat out obviously thinks the Niners are a better team than the Texans.
04:31That one, that one I can get with just based on pedigree and history.
04:35The Broncos a week later are favored at NRG Stadium.
04:40Bo Nix, Sean Payton, and the Denver Broncos as of right now are a one and a half point favorite
04:45at NRG Stadium.
04:46The team that got blown out by Buffalo in the first round of the playoffs, like 38 to 7.
04:51Yeah.
04:52And who we were all laughing at, you know, during the Russell Wilson year.
04:56And almost laughing them on draft night when they, we thought maybe they overdrafted Bo Nix.
04:59That team is favored against you in your stadium next year.
05:04That's, that's the other part of it that goes into, all right, the, the games at home where
05:08the Texans are underdogs versus other mediocre teams.
05:11The, the Texans, some of those performances that they've had versus good quarterbacks and
05:18like how bad the stat line looks for someone.
05:23All right.
05:23Yep.
05:23They intercepted him five times and they lost the game in partly because Jared Goff made
05:28some big plays in the second half.
05:30Like they just, they got Sam, uh, Sam Laporta went off for, uh, on a, on a, on a huge long
05:37reception.
05:38It was, they've just, they've got to clean up a few of those little things because even
05:43in some of those bad stat lines from those quarterbacks, the quarterbacks did some really
05:48good things in those games as well.
05:49So yeah, yeah, they're the 49ers though, but the 10 and a half win total for them, part
05:54of that is that they've got the easiest schedule in the NFL.
05:56They do have the easiest schedule.
05:57That's a good point.
05:58Win total.
05:58Yeah.
05:58Yeah.
05:59That's true.
05:59They, they've, they've, they've, they're playing a last place schedule this year.
06:02Yeah.
06:02So it's actually like by pretty large margin when you base it on Vegas, when projected totals,
06:07um, they've got like a, a, a healthy lead in the easiest schedule.
06:11They play a lot of bad team.
06:12No, it's like, that's, that's a really good point.
06:14They do, you know, and now that said, do I, should they be favored at home?
06:19Should they be favored at NRG stadium against the Houston Texans, San Francisco?
06:24You know, I don't think so.
06:25I don't believe that they should be.
06:26Yeah.
06:26Like I'm taking the points in that game.
06:28I would take the point.
06:28I would take the points.
06:30I mean, I feel like they're gift wrapping you.
06:32Some of these, I'm not disrespecting the Niners or the Broncos.
06:35I just don't think they're good enough teams with good enough quarterbacks to be favored,
06:39to be favored on the road at NRG stadium where the Texans made mush out of quarterbacks last
06:43year.
06:44Now, but also the other, the other big thing about the 49ers specific to that matchup with
06:48the Texans is George Kittle and George Kittle.
06:51He have the newly, uh, league leading contract amongst tight ends.
06:54Uh, like the Texans were bad against tight ends last year.
06:58Sure.
06:58Sure.
06:58Yeah.
06:59No, they're going to give up points in yards.
07:02I get that below is favored by three and a half.
07:05At NRG stadium on the Thursday night game.
07:08So the Texans are home dogs in a handful of games this year.
07:11Yeah.
07:12At least three.
07:12They've got a, they, that's where it'd be interesting to see if the Texans come off
07:16on a heater in the first couple of games and the offense looks really good.
07:19Yeah.
07:20Then that these things might change pretty dramatically because I think by far the biggest factor
07:25is that you have, you, you have an offense that was not a good offense last year.
07:29You're going to face some really good defenses.
07:31You can't look at a team.
07:32The offense is more consistent from year to year than defenses.
07:36So you can't even really lean into the defense.
07:38If you're an odds maker, you're not leaning into the Texans defense as much as you're looking
07:42at the offense and thinking like, man, that was a more abundant, uh, conglomeration of
07:46underperforming dudes last year.
07:48Yeah, it's, you know what the, I mean, the early part of the season, right up to the
07:51Ravens game, the first four games of the season, I think is that's the first four games in
07:56the last four games.
07:57I think the Texans have a real opportunity to get off to a good start at the Rams.
08:01It'll be a tough game, but these games are all like feel, you know, like these, but it's
08:05a three and a half point spread.
08:06The Texans will be, you know, they'll be fine.
08:07They'll compete.
08:08That's the toughest of those games though.
08:10You come home Monday night, Buccaneers place is going to be rocking.
08:12And you go play the Jags on the road.
08:14You haven't lost on the road in the division.
08:16And so the Jags on the road in forever.
08:18And, um, and then, then the, uh, the Titans, you know, the Titans are here.
08:23You can't lose to them two years in a row at home.
08:25I feel like that's three and one right there.
08:27And I feel like down the stretch, it's a three and one schedule as well with the Cardinals,
08:31Raiders and Colts all at home with the road trip to the Chargers in between.
08:35It's the in between part that boy, there are some gauntlets in there in between.
08:39What does artificial intelligence.
08:42Did you go to AI yourself and ask the article, the article used AI to come up with the scores
08:49of the, uh, the Texans games and the AI projections for the Houston Texans 12 and five.
08:54They agree with you.
08:56Hey, you're basically AI Seth is what you, Oh, that was my prediction yesterday.
08:5912 and five was your prediction.
09:01Yeah.
09:01Yeah.
09:02I'm optimistic.
09:02I'm optimistic about Nick Kaley and the offense right now.
09:04The five losses are, and they've got scores for all these too.
09:09So how are we feeling if these are the scores of these games, they lose the five
09:12losses for the Texans.
09:13According to AI, they lose the opener to the Rams 27, 24.
09:18Okay.
09:18I feel all right about that cover.
09:19Yeah.
09:20Sean, Sean wins money.
09:21If he places that bet today, I go plus three and a half.
09:23Right.
09:24Um, they then win, win, win.
09:25So they start three and one and then they lose to the Ravens 31.
09:30What?
09:31I'm just anticipating it.
09:32I'm a little, Oh yeah.
09:3331, 21.
09:35Oh, 31, 21.
09:36The day at least did the Ravens at least score late.
09:39That's that.
09:40That's my question.
09:41Yeah.
09:41Like how do we get to the 31?
09:42If the Texans scored late, then I feel atrocious about all.
09:45Well, I feel like if the Ravens scored 31, it means Derek Henry ran for 186 yards and Lamar
09:50Jackson threw for 250 and ran for another 70, you know, are our defensive ends flailing
09:55around in space, trying to, uh, uh, trying to tackle the running back when the quarterback
10:00has the ball and vice versa.
10:02Cause that was fun.
10:03Yeah.
10:03That was a, that's a whole lot.
10:04You know, there's an added level of stress.
10:06If you ever played defensive end in college versus a good option team that when you're watching,
10:10when you're watching your team struggle versus option, it's, it's only defensive ends
10:15have this, this little, this, this knot in their stomach that they get when they screw
10:19that up.
10:19That's right.
10:20The Texans did it like 20 week after that loss to the Ravens that had you go, uh, uh,
10:27and I agree with you.
10:28Um, they go on a five game winning streak.
10:30They beat the Seahawks by three.
10:32They beat the Niners by three.
10:33They beat the Broncos by six.
10:35They beat the Jags 31, 27.
10:37They beat the Titans.
10:39These are all close wins.
10:40They're in 26, 22.
10:42Well, but that's what the Texans do, right?
10:43Remember?
10:43I mean, they play a lot of close games.
10:45Then the bills come to town for Thursday night football.
10:48And thus comes the third loss of the season, 33 to 29.
10:53Now that would be an exciting Amazon prime game right there.
10:56Yeah.
10:57Yeah.
10:57Yeah.
10:5729, a high scoring.
11:00I'm here for it.
11:01I wish the Texans were on the other end of it, but that at least sounds like an entertaining
11:04final score right there.
11:06Stick around to make a couple of prime purchases afterwards.
11:09So at that point, a couple of QR codes, baby, you lose it.
11:12You lose it home to the bills.
11:14That's boy.
11:15I'll tell you one thing.
11:16Those Amazon prime games, man, they tailor the advertising to stuff that you yourself
11:20want to see.
11:21Exactly what they said they were going to do to us when they got the rights to it.
11:24Yeah.
11:24I cross-checked this and yeah, people aren't seeing the same ads and man, everything that
11:29pops up like, Oh, yeah.
11:31Oh, I need to buy.
11:31Yeah.
11:32Ooh.
11:33Yeah.
11:33I know what they're doing.
11:34So that's, you play the bills in week 12.
11:37Yeah.
11:37So that's a, it, it hurts more because it's to a playoff caliber team likely towards the
11:43end of season.
11:44And you've got that stretch coming up where you're, uh, you've got the Colts the next
11:48week, but then the chiefs, another big test.
11:50So they beat the Colts the next week in Indianapolis again, 27, 21.
11:55This is the score.
11:56This one hurts.
11:57They go to the chiefs on Sunday night football.
12:02Chiefs T.
12:03Oh, and for something like AI, that's a big blowout.
12:08You know, like, I feel like AI tends to skew towards whatever the computers say.
12:12And the computers never predict the computers never predict 41 to seven or anything like
12:17that.
12:17That's a pretty big margin there for a computer generated margin, 35 to 20.
12:22That one would sting, especially having lost to the bills, you know, two weeks before that
12:27like this, that's where you're really feeling they would be at that, at that point set, they
12:30would be nine and four on the season, which is a good record.
12:33But their losses would be, they would have losses to the Ravens, bills and chiefs.
12:37So we would be coming in on Monday after that.
12:40The narrative going into that chiefs game is they need to win this game.
12:43So they can, so we can talk about them like they're on that level.
12:46And we would still, they're in that classic.
12:49Nope.
12:49There's a glass ceiling and they can't, they can't bust through it.
12:52That's it.
12:53That's don't worry.
12:54Everybody at the end of this schedule, I'm going to tell you something, whatever you
12:57don't like about this AI generated.
12:59I'm going to be a little AI generated tidbit about the Texas.
13:01Okay, good.
13:02Let's get through the rest of this.
13:03Cause I want to hear that.
13:03So they come back and on that stretch of the three of the final four games at home,
13:08they beat the Cardinals.
13:09They thump the Raiders 34 to 17, lose to the Chargers 26, 23 in LA.
13:16And then they beat the Colts at home 30 to 24, thus finishing 12 and five with all five
13:22losses to playoff teams from last year.
13:24Oh, that'd be the worst feeling.
13:27That would be the, that would be the worst feeling is if you're 12 and five, but you'd
13:31lost to all these really good teams.
13:33If those teams are good this year.
13:34Yeah.
13:35Yeah.
13:35Ah, okay.
13:37Yesterday I was, when I was watching the schedule release videos from other teams, I wanted to
13:40see how the Ravens.
13:43Um, and I just, so when they do, I think they did a Minecraft theme too, or some video game
13:48themed thing.
13:49Yeah.
13:49And, uh, they got to, they, it was a video game theme thing and they got to Lamar Jackson
13:53when they showed the Texans and it just said 100%.
13:56And I'm like, oh, okay.
13:57That's reference to Lamar Jackson never having lost to the Texans.
14:00Oh yeah.
14:01But because as we've established, I've been really stupid the last couple of days.
14:05I wanted to fact check myself.
14:07I'm like, right.
14:08Yeah.
14:08He's never lost to the Texans.
14:09So I just real quick Googled his Lamar Jackson ever lost to the Texans and you know, uh,
14:14Google gives you that little AI overview at the top.
14:17Now I know where you're pleased to know, Sean, when I asked his, has, no, it gets even funnier
14:22though.
14:22Every step along the way, I asked his Lamar Jackson ever lost to the Texans expecting the
14:26answer to be no.
14:28Um, yes, Lamar Jackson has lost to the Texans.
14:31The New York giants beat him in the NFC.
14:34He is 0 and 1 in the playoffs against the Texans.
14:36What, what the hell?
14:41All right.
14:43I don't, how, what does that even mean?
14:46How can this, how can this be the thing that's about to replace everybody all now?
14:51I know this is just the, this is a standard generic version of AI, but, uh, but it's,
14:55it's sports.
14:56It is so incredibly bad.
14:58I don't understand how it's so bad at sports.
15:02If AI were a person, they are definitely the person that goes to a Superbowl party just
15:06to watch the commercials.
15:08You know what?
15:08This is probably, this might be a big joke on us all.
15:11Who creates AI?
15:14The, the guys who are bad at sports.
15:16Yeah, that's true.
15:17And yet, and yet a lot of those, a lot of the super nerds that are like ridiculously smart
15:24about sports stats and everything.
15:26Those are the kids that you're valedictorian in high school who majors in quantum physics
15:30in college and can give you every box score from every game the Yankees played back until
15:351965.
15:36Oh my God.
15:36Yeah, dude.
15:37And yet they're so bad at sports.
15:38So bad.
15:39This is where I thought you were going to go with it.
15:40And this is why I was giving AI, obviously way too much credit is that, I mean, in my
15:46mind, not only have the Texans never beaten Lamar Jackson, they've never really come close
15:52that I can remember.
15:53Like the first time they ever played him was, I remember the first time they ever played
15:56him was in, was in 2019.
15:59It was his MVP year, his first MVP year.
16:01The Texans had just beaten the Jags in London, like a drum, had a bye week.
16:05And we were all pumped up coming off of that bye week in 2019.
16:09Like here, let's go.
16:10Let's show Lamar Jackson what's up.
16:12And he beat them 41 to seven.
16:14He destroyed the Texans.
16:17And I don't know that there's been a close game between the two teams since Lamar Jackson
16:22got it.
16:22That's what I thought.
16:23I thought AI was going to go, oh, Seth, not only have they never beaten Lamar Jackson,
16:28they've never come close.
16:30Now, Sean, put yourself in my size 13s.
16:33And like, tell them, tell them, like, think of this.
16:36The reason I even Googled it is because I've been so dumb the last couple years.
16:41I've got a history of brain trauma.
16:43I just, you know, I want to be sure that I'm on this train.
16:47I've just got to pay attention to this stuff.
16:49So I'm like, all right, I know he's never lost to the Texans.
16:52Let me double check this.
16:54And then I'm reading from a computer that's supposed to be way smarter than me.
16:59Yes, Lamar Jackson has lost to the Texans.
17:03I'm like, and then I'm reading the New York Giants beat him in the NFC.
17:06And I'm like, what?
17:08What am I reading here?
17:10What's wrong with my head?
17:12Why is that even in the conversation?
17:14Dude, the worst part about that is, of course, he's lost to the Texans.
17:17The Giants beat him.
17:18Like, what are we?
17:19In the NFC.
17:20And he's 0-1 in the playoffs against the Texans.
17:24And I swear to God, I was sitting there.
17:27I'm like, no, wait.
17:28No, because they were in the playoffs last year, and it wasn't.
17:31No, that can't be.
17:33Oh, man.
17:33AI, you suck messing with Seth's head.
17:36That's just mean.