National League Showdown: Reds Need Wins; Braves Favored

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00:00My team in the National League right now,

00:01at least from a betting perspective,

00:03the Reds beat 80 wins out of Cincinnati.

00:05They've got 19.

00:06They're 19 and 19 straight up.

00:08My guy, though, in the National League,

00:11that would be Spencer Schwellenbach,

00:12the 2021 Big Ten Player of the Year from Nebraska

00:15and off to a great start in his second full season

00:18in the bigs.

00:19Minus 190, the price in favor of the Braves

00:22to win this four-game set in the IRS

00:24and take three of four from Cincinnati.

00:26Can the Reds put up a fight today in the A?

00:28Taking a look at the seasonal statistics here,

00:30and by the way, I think Schwellenbach

00:31did get blown up in his last start.

00:33Two starts ago, was it?

00:3541 and a third innings pitch,

00:36but technically he's the better pitcher on the mound today.

00:383.92 ERA, which is a little bit elevated.

00:40You want to see that number 3-5 or 0.

00:423-19 XFIP number on the season,

00:44so bounce back might be in order at this point.

00:46You take a look here from Cincinnati, Nick Lodolo,

00:48pretty confident left-handed pitcher.

00:50He is decent, typically, with his K right,

00:52but not this year.

00:536.75 Ks per nine innings,

00:55which means if you extrapolate out a nine-inning start for him,

00:57he's not even striking out a guy per inning,

00:59which is really what you want to see.

01:01A 3.27 ERA, which makes some sense,

01:03but his XFIP creeping up at a 4-2-8.

01:05If we're looking at the lineups as how they present tonight,

01:08Nick Lodolo, excuse me, being a left-handed pitcher,

01:11very good against left-handed batters,

01:13and also his power numbers are down against righties

01:15with also ISO power number and weighted on base percentages.

01:18Here's the issue that gets him in trouble

01:19while his XFIP is a little bit higher.

01:21He doesn't strike guys out,

01:22which means the ball typically will be in play.

01:24You look at the middle of the lineup

01:25for the Atlanta Braves today.

01:26Austin Riley going up against left-handed pitching.

01:28Not a lot of at-bats.

01:30You're 21, but a 300 ISO power number

01:32and a weighted on base percentage of 4-0-2.

01:34Marcel Azuna, not a lot of power,

01:35but the weighted on base percentage of 3-94.

01:37Olsen, not a lot of power,

01:39but again, the weighted on base percentage of a 3-94.

01:41I think the better overall lineup today

01:43is for the Atlanta Braves.

01:44I do think the Braves win this game,

01:45but also, as I pointed out and you confirmed,

01:48sometimes you come off the back-to-back starts.

01:50Was it a problem that he had?

01:51Was it an injury?

01:52Was he just not feeling it right now?

01:54Like, Paul Skeen's had a nice bounce-back performance

01:55after he had one of his low points in the season,

01:57which the Pittsburgh Pirates still lost.

01:59I'll still trust Atlanta in this spot, though.

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