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00:00You probably think you're in complete control of your decisions and thoughts, but how often
00:09are they guided by something else? Something you don't even notice occurring deep within
00:13your mind. Here are 21 cognitive mind traps, fallacies, biases and other phenomenon that
00:18exist within your brain. Strange things that are hard-wired into all human minds. You may
00:24go through your entire life or well into adulthood completely unaware that you're carrying around
00:28these thinking errors and mental shortcuts that influence your day-to-day thinking. You
00:32can't turn them off or delete them from your brain, but being one of the few people that
00:36can notice when they arise in your mind and knowing the situations they're likely to act
00:40upon your decision-making is one of the first steps to becoming a more thoughtful and rational
00:44thinker. This two-part series is mainly inspired by the works of Nobel Prize-winning psychologist
00:50Daniel Kahneman and his amazing book, Thinking Fast and Slow.
01:14A fox snuck up to a vine. He stared intently at the juicy purple overripe grapes. He tried
01:23to get at the grapes, but they were too high. Frustrated he tried again. He launched himself
01:27upward but came no closer to the fruit. He leapt for a third time, this time landing with
01:32a thud. Still no grapes. The fox turned up his nose. I don't really care. Only grapes that
01:38aren't even ripe. Why would I want sour grapes? He turned around and walked back into the forest.
01:43This is one of Aesop's fables and also where we get the term sour grapes from. The fox had three
01:49choices. Get to the grapes, admit that he wasn't smart or skilled enough to obtain the grapes,
01:54or to reinterpret the situation retrospectively. Or put simply, create a new belief that is in
02:00conflict with the first belief. When we choose option three and we have two held beliefs that
02:05are in conflict with one another, that is an example of cognitive dissonance. If you interview for
02:10a job but someone else gets it, instead of reasoning that the other person was better,
02:14you tell yourself that the job was no good anyway, or that the interviewer was unfair.
02:18When people can't get what they want, they often tell themselves it isn't what they wanted anyway.
02:23When people don't want to follow through on something, they often find new beliefs to
02:27rationalize the action to fit the first belief. You think all rich people are greedy and evil,
02:33but you also want to be rich. The dissonance leads to discomfort, mental stress, and anxiety. If the
02:39dissonance grows more intense, it can lead to depression. If you notice dissonance, you can ask
02:44yourself, what are the two beliefs that are competing and are incompatible? Am I telling
02:48myself this new belief because I couldn't get what I wanted? Or is this new belief because I need an
02:53excuse to explain away my first belief? What actions can I take to change my behavior or mindset and
02:58eliminate the dissonance? Because when it comes to cognitive dissonance, you can play the clever
03:03fox all you want, but you'll never get the grace that way.
03:05The Spotlight Effect
03:17You arrive five minutes late to the office and you feel like everyone is judging you. It's your first day
03:26at the gym and you feel like everyone is watching you. You spill a small amount of sauce on your shirt
03:31and you feel so embarrassed because you think the whole party is going to notice. The Spotlight
03:36Effect is the phenomenon in which people tend to believe people are observing them more than they
03:40are. People are seldom interested in you and your actions as much as you think. So do yourself a favor,
03:46stop overestimating how much people are observing you and reduce the anxiety that is probably just the
03:51result of the spotlight effect. The anchoring effect. Whenever we have to guess something,
04:02let's say the population of Russia, we use anchors, starting with something we know for sure to be
04:07true. So it must be greater than one, must be less than seven billion and is less than the population
04:12of China. We then take these anchors and explore the unfamiliar territory. Unfortunately, we use anchors
04:18when we don't need to. Take a moment to pause and look at these two questions. Is the height of the
04:24tallest redwood tree more or less than 1200 feet? What is your best guess about the height of the
04:29tallest redwood? If we ask group A these two questions and group B these two questions, we would
04:38consistently get very different answers because of the anchoring effect. The words and numbers we use
04:44anchors people's decisions. But the anchoring effect doesn't only apply to numbers that appear
04:49informative, such as in the tree example. According to Kahneman, anchors that are obviously random
04:54can be just as effective as potentially informative anchors. An experiment was conducted on German judges
05:00with an average of 15 years experience. Each judge was read a description of a woman who had been
05:05shoplifting, then asked to roll a pair of dice, which were loaded to only add up to three or nine.
05:10As soon as the dice stopped, they were asked to answer how long they would sentence this woman.
05:14The judges who rolled a nine on average gave her an eight-month sentence. The judges who rolled a
05:19three on average gave her a five-month sentence. The researchers found that the anchoring effect
05:24was influencing their judgments. Numerous other studies using arbitrary numbers like the last digits
05:30of phone numbers or social security numbers also confirmed our anchoring bias. In sales and
05:35negotiations, anchors are being used all the time. And there will be people who are willing and able
05:40to set up this mind trap and exploit the anchoring effect against you. The car salesman setting a high
05:45price from the start so that the price that he actually wants to get from you seems like a good deal.
05:50The $150 dress at the front of the store sets the anchor for the $50 dress at the back of the store.
05:56Online stores, salary negotiations, and real estate deals are all playgrounds for the anchoring effect.
06:02And it's one of our most powerful biases. You can't turn it off, but you can remind yourself of your
06:06vulnerability to it and try to proactively set your own mental anchors before going into any sales
06:12or negotiation environment. Take a look at these examples. Let's say I want to sell my book. You can
06:18get my online course for $1,999 or you can get my book for just $15. I anchor you to the higher price
06:25first so that the price of my book seems like a bargain. If I wanted to sell my course on the other hand,
06:30I would need to find a better anchor. It costs $135,000 to go to college and learn the same
06:36things I'm going to teach you in my online course for only $1,999.
06:42If Sarah wanted to buy a $50,000 car and experiment with anchoring, she wouldn't show her partner a
06:47bunch of similar priced cars. She would show him a few $90,000 cars she likes first and after she gets
06:52an audible gasp at the price, then she would show him the car she actually wants. And now it doesn't
06:57seem as expensive. The price you anchor first determines how people feel about the value of
07:02your offer. They have sent us the asking price for the home. Let's not let the numbers influence
07:08our thinking. Set it aside. Let's perform our own due diligence and arrive at our own number.
07:13Our objective in this negotiation is to move first and get them anchored to this number.
07:29The halo effect.
07:59What do you think about Alan and Ben? Alan is intelligent, industrious, impulsive,
08:07critical, stubborn, and envious. Ben is envious, stubborn, critical, impulsive,
08:13industrious, and intelligent. If you're like most people, you see Alan in a better light than you do
08:18Ben, even though the traits mentioned are exactly the same. When it comes to the halo effect, sequence
08:23matters. More weight is given to the first piece of information we receive. The first piece of
08:28information helps us quickly create a story of the person or situation in our minds. Sure, Alan is
08:34stubborn and envious, but that is only because he is intelligent and wants to win in business. And yes,
08:39Ben is intelligent, but he uses that intelligence in envious ways. The halo effect occurs when a single
08:45initial aspect of a person or thing determines and affects or outshines how we see the full picture.
08:50When you first start dating someone, both parties in the relationship are on their best behavior.
08:55You start to develop a halo of positive thoughts around this person. Small traits you dislike might
08:59begin to pop up but often go unnoticed because the halo, the positive emotions, and the initial
09:05information you gathered on this person is blinding out any of the negatives. The honeymoon phase of a
09:10relationship is often when the halo effect influences your judgment the most. If we learn that someone
09:15graduated from a prestigious university, the halo effect will distort all other traits we attribute
09:20to that person without any evidence. Bernie Madoff was the darling of Wall Street, a legendary investor.
09:26The amazing returns and reputation of his company were the halo that made people also conclude his
09:31company must be trustworthy. The halo outshone the numbers that made no sense and the underlying fact
09:36that he was running the biggest Ponzi scheme in history. Numerous studies have shown that attractive
09:41people are automatically perceived as nicer, more honest, and more intelligent.
09:45The halo effect can also be found in schools. If a student answers two essay questions and the
09:50teacher gives the first essay a high grade, he or she is prone to subconsciously give that more weight
09:55and give the second essay a higher grade also, and vice versa for low grades.
10:00In the work environment, the standard practice of most meetings is to have open discussions on a topic.
10:04Daniel Kahneman in the book Thinking Fast and Slow argues that it is better to gather
10:09independent judgments on the topic from everyone in the group before the issue is discussed,
10:13because far too often the opinions of the first people to talk are given too much weight and
10:17influence the group's input, especially if the boss speaks first. Modern research suggests that the
10:22old saying, first impressions last, turns out to be true. After meeting someone for the first time,
10:27our judgment of that person can influence us for a long time into the future. We jump to conclusions and
10:32our perception of true characteristics is distorted by the halo effect. To combat this, try to move beyond the
10:38first appearance of someone or something and de-correlate error. Remember that your brain is trying to
10:43help you by making the most complete story it can on the limited information it is provided. The
10:48problem is that these mental shortcut stories we tell ourselves about a person or thing are often
10:53inaccurate from reality. He knows nothing about her personality. All he's going by is how good looking
10:59she is. He's succumbing to the halo effect. Hey look, this new applicant graduated from Harvard.
11:05She doesn't have any experience in this position, but I think we should interview her anyway.
11:09Let's gather ideas independently on this topic before the meeting.
11:13I don't want my ideas to influence the groups.
11:23Gambler's Fallacy
11:27Three times a coin is flipped and lands on heads each time. Let's say that someone forces you to wage
11:32thousands of dollars of your own money on the next toss. Would you bet on heads or tails? If you think
11:38like most people, you will almost always choose tails, although heads is equally likely. But why?
11:44We believe in some kind of balancing force in the universe. If we ask people to choose which sequence
11:49is more probable, most would pick the top sequence. But both sequences are equally probable. We generally
11:56underestimate the likelihood of streaks occurring by chance. We are led to believe that something needs
12:00to change due to the gambler's fallacy. However, there is no such balancing force. The coin cannot
12:06remember that heads was flipped three times in a row, just as the ball cannot remember that it landed
12:10on black. Casinos love the gambler's fallacy because it creates the illusion in the gambler's mind that
12:16they can predict where the balance of the dice or roulette wheel will go next. This fallacy can apply
12:21anywhere there is a sequence of decisions. That awkward feeling you get when you've answered five C's in a row
12:27of a multiple choice exam is this fallacy at work. A University of Chicago review found asylum judges
12:33were 19% less likely to approve an asylum seeker if they had just approved the previous two. The
12:40same person applying for a loan was more likely to get approved for a loan if the previous two applicants
12:45were rejected and was more likely to be rejected if the previous two applicants were approved.
12:50Similar findings were also found when analyzing the sequence of decisions of baseball umpires.
12:55The Contrast Effect
13:11If you see some leather seats for $3,000, they may seem a little expensive. If you're buying an $80,000
13:18car on the other hand, the $3,000 leather seat upgrade seems almost like nothing. Research shows
13:23that people will walk an extra 10 minutes if it means saving $10 on food. However, nearly all
13:29wouldn't walk 10 minutes to save $10 on a $1,000 suit. It's easy to think something is attractive,
13:35large, or expensive when it sits next to something ugly, small, or cheap. Absolute judgments can be
13:41difficult to make. Try to catch yourself the next time you go shopping to see if your purchasing decisions
13:46are being influenced by the Contrast Effect.
13:55Confirmation Bias
13:57You have an existing belief about something. You go in search of evidence that supports that belief,
14:01which further reinforces the belief. And you continue this cycle. If you come across evidence
14:06that doesn't support your belief, you filter the disconfirming evidence, and your brain forgets it
14:11after a short period of time. We never like to learn we've believed in a falsehood or made a bad
14:15decision, which is why we tend to filter what information we pay attention to. This is confirmation
14:21bias, the tendency to interpret new information so that it becomes compatible with our existing theories
14:26and beliefs. This bias is subtle, unconscious, and always present in the mind when rational thinking
14:32is needed. As opposed to the scientific method, where you form a hypothesis or ask a question,
14:37gather evidence, and then test the hypothesis, this is hard work and may entail some unpleasant truths.
14:43This is John. John begins with a simple theory or belief. He turns to Google. He subconsciously goes
14:49in search of the first information that confirms his belief, and the confirmation bias takes care of
14:54filtering out the rest. Finding information that proves you are wrong is one of the best ways to
14:58determine if you are right, and philosophers of science would tell us to combat this bias by trying
15:03to refute the hypothesis. But rarely do people actively try to seek out disconfirming evidence
15:09to their beliefs. We hate to be wrong, so why would we actively try to seek out information that is in
15:14conflict with those beliefs? To make matters worse, the biggest platforms now tailor content to personal
15:19interests and browsing history, supercharging confirmation bias on a mass scale. We find ourselves
15:25in a sea of one-sided content amongst communities of like-minded people, also referred to as echo chambers,
15:31thereby reinforcing our convictions and the confirmation bias becomes stronger. Not only do we need to
15:36combat our own confirmation bias, social platforms are aiding this bias by filtering what we are shown
15:42and not exposing us to opposing points of view. The more you can form the facts to fit your beliefs,
15:47the narrower your perspective becomes, until that narrow reality becomes all that you can see.
15:52Confirmation bias is the genesis of the I am always correct ego, especially in political discourse.
15:58What planet are they living on? They must be living in an alternate reality. I am completely right
16:03about this. Look at all the facts on my side. As a result of confirmation bias, we have a high degree
16:09of confidence. We feel deep down that we are right. If someone challenges our opinions, we tend to become
16:14defensive and even hostile. As opposing perspectives become narrower, discourse about facts that are being
16:20interpreted and filtered differently becomes nearly impossible, because both sides of an argument are
16:25seeing the evidence through the lens of their theories and only looking out for what confirms their
16:29existing beliefs. Echo chambers are the flywheels for frequent repetition and dissemination of ideas.
16:35The same ideas are shared, liked, and repeated, and any new beliefs are quickly shut down. All divergent
16:41thinking and opinions begin to disappear. When people hear the same thing repeated enough times,
16:47the facts may as well go out the window. According to Daniel Kahneman, a reliable way to make people believe in
16:52falsehood is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth.
16:58There is no way to eliminate confirmation bias, only ways to reduce its effect on you.
17:03First is to simply become aware that this mind trap exists. If time does allow you to reflect,
17:09try to think grey. If you truly want to become an independent thinker, you need to suspend judgments,
17:14explore the grey areas, and expand beyond the hive mind of the group. Try to get your information from a
17:19variety of sources, and avoid being influenced into a belief, because it is what others are telling you
17:24to think, or has been repeated enough times, you accept it as truth. Confirmation bias is a perspective
17:30narrower. Try to widen your perspective, because in most cases the objective facts lie somewhere in
17:35between, in the grey area.
17:37The Barter-Meinhof phenomenon
17:46You buy a certain brand of car, and all of a sudden you start seeing that car everywhere,
17:49whereas you didn't in the past. When you learn a new word or concept, suddenly you start seeing it
17:54everywhere in your life. You start thinking, wow, this is weird. How is it possible I've never seen this
17:59word in my life, and now I've seen it three times this week? Why do I keep seeing those new shoes I
18:04bought everywhere I go? They must be becoming so popular. The Barter-Meinhof phenomenon is an illusion
18:10in which, after noticing something for the first time, there is a tendency to notice it more often.
18:14It occurs when increased awareness of something creates the illusion that it is appearing more
18:19often. This phenomenon is augmented by two other biases, the recency effect, which inflates the
18:24importance of recent stimuli, and confirmation bias, which confirms in your mind these strange
18:29coincidences you think you're having, and then perpetuates your search to keep confirming that
18:33these coincidences must have some kind of meaning. Basically, our brains are master pattern
18:38recognition machines that are always searching for meaning in data. What is amazing are all the
18:42patterns and stimuli flooding past you every single day that your brain simply ignores because it's not
18:48in your awareness. We only see the things we are looking out for. In reality, you have most likely seen
18:53that word or car a number of times, but your mind simply wasn't interested in noticing it.
19:03We can almost always remember incomplete tasks, but we easily forget completed tasks. To put simply,
19:14incomplete tasks will stick around in our memory longer than completed tasks. Originally, it was
19:19believed that the only way to prevent the Ziganic effect from gnawing away at our thoughts was to
19:23complete the incomplete tasks. However, further research into the Ziganic effect found that simply having
19:29or writing down a plan to complete the task was enough to stop the effect. So if you find yourself
19:34awake at night with these incomplete tasks stressing you out, grab a pen and pad and write down a quick
19:38plan to get the job done. Getting the task out of your head and onto paper combats this effect and will
19:44give you more peace of mind. The Paradox of Choice
19:53At a supermarket, two experiments were conducted. In the first experiment, 24 different types of jam were
19:58available to freely test and buy for a discounted price. In the second experiment, only six different
20:04types of jam were available to freely test and buy for a discounted price. The first experiment
20:09attracted 60% of shoppers and 3% bought jam. The second experiment attracted 40% of shoppers and 30%
20:17bought jam. Even though more shoppers were initially attracted to more variety, with less choices the
20:22supermarket was able to sell 10x the amount of jam. This is the paradox of choice. For most people,
20:27a large selection of any given product is seen as a net positive. But once the number of choices
20:32increases past the threshold, our subjective state becomes negative and leads to inner paralysis and
20:38decision fatigue. The paradox of choice can also be found in modern day dating. In the past, you
20:43would marry people you met locally. Nowadays, we have too many choices. And you may think that all
20:47that variety would make it easier to find the perfect partner. But more optimal decisions can be made
20:52when given a smaller amount of options to choose from. When faced with a small number of options,
20:57people can easily weigh the pros and cons of each and be fairly satisfied with whichever option they
21:02chose. When faced with a large number of options, knowing which option is best becomes more difficult
21:08and the more options there are, the more chances there are of feeling regret. With more options,
21:13the more you feel the need to compare. The attractive features of the alternatives diminish the
21:17satisfaction in your final choice. Even if we made an excellent decision, the opportunity costs of the
21:23other options subtract from the overall satisfaction of our choice. Too many choices often leads to people
21:29not making any choice and giving up on the endeavour altogether.
21:41the more you're familiar with, the more you work with. The more you run on the other options,
21:56you have already done it with. The more you try and share with
21:58theовers, you have already done it with. The more you try and share with the most of you or
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