00:00What I'm doing is an exit poll of people who voted and it's 2,000 people but so far there's
00:081,071 that we've got and we're not looking at who's going to win because it's a national
00:14campaign and to work out who's going to win you have to go by marginal seat although there
00:19are indications there. What we're looking at specifically is the issues and why people
00:25are not voting for particular parties. What are the issues they're concerned about and
00:30why are they not voting? There are two reasons why people are not. The first is Donald Trump
00:39and the chaos that he's causing and people are very nervous about that but that tends to
00:43net out a bit between each major party. The big reason, the thing that will dominate voting
00:49in this election is nuclear. Nuclear is an astonishing, frankly, act of self-harm by
00:58the coalition. It's going to cost them somewhere between 2% and 3% of the vote. There's a nuclear
01:07swing there. The difficulty they have is that not all Liberals like it and many, many other
01:19people don't. In fact, 12% of people are saying it will significantly affect their vote. Even
01:24of Liberals, of those people who say they support it strongly, if you take off the people who say
01:30they don't support it, there's a negative of minus 17% of Liberals who are very concerned about it.
01:37It's a politically dreadful problem. And just finishing on that point without laboring it too
01:44much, it's not just because of the cost. People give all sorts of reasons. It's cost. It's having
01:51larger government. It's safety. It's earthquakes. It's waste disposal. There's a smorgasbord of reasons
01:58why people hate this policy and it's going to be very damaging. Yeah, it's interesting that nuclear has
02:03become a prominent position. I would have thought it would have been housing or cost of living, Toby.
02:11Well, cost of living is interesting because everyone out there is very concerned about not
02:16everyone. Most people out there are very concerned about cost of living. And there is a strong
02:20sentiment that Labour have been pretty hopeless with it. But there's an equal offsetting sentiment
02:27that the coalition wouldn't make any difference. So people aren't actually voting on that.
02:32Right. The opinion polls, if I could bring you into this conversation, the opinion polls
02:38are saying there's possibility a Labour win or perhaps Labour in a minority government. We've seen
02:45opinion polls be wrong before, though. You know, Peter Dunton points to the fact that in 2019
02:52there was that Morrison mystery and the Liberal Party, the coalition came back in again.
02:58Does he have a right to be hopeful?
03:01Oh, look, you know, you will only know the result of the election tonight or maybe it might take a
03:06little bit longer. It's a two-horse race about who's going to form government. But there are a number
03:11of factors that are different this time, Farsi, than they were in 2019. One, in 2019, the polls were
03:18getting worse for the Labor Party as the party got closer to Election Day. And so they were sort of
03:23holding on day by day. Whereas the opposite is obviously happening this time. The polls are
03:27getting much better for Anthony Albanese. And two, this time we've got an extraordinarily
03:32strong dissatisfaction rating for Peter Dutton. I think it's lowest for an opposition leader
03:40heading into an election since Andrew Peacock. And that's before many of our time in politics.
03:45So that's a long time ago. But I think that really is, the polling really does tell a story
03:49about this campaign. You know, in February, you know, Peter Dutton had an election winning
03:54lead. He was running sort of sky high. His primary, the primary for the Liberals was well north
04:00of 40. 2BP was, had a commanding lead and his approvals were well above, you know, all above
04:08the Prime Minister's. And since then, you know, you've seen a 16 point increase in news poll for
04:13the preferred Prime Minister for Anthony Albanese. The, the, the, the, the coalition sort of primary
04:19vote has, has collapsed. And I think that, that'll sort of, that'll tell a story about
04:25what happens on election tonight as the votes sort of come in. To Toby's point, he's right,
04:31you know, obviously the overall trend across the country matters to a certain degree, but
04:36it really matters where it falls in these marginal seas. You know, Ryan, the primary votes for
04:40both major parties have been on the decline in recent years. We've seen the surge of the
04:45independents, the teals as well. Is this a reflection of voter dissatisfaction and apathy
04:52towards the two major parties? Or is it a reflection of the change in demographics? You know, given
04:57that it's going to be Gen Zs and millennials that will be outnumbering baby boomers in this election.
05:03I think it's, I think it's all that fuzzy. And I think it's, you know, also the fact that
05:08politics around the world is fragmenting. You know, there are some very smart political
05:14strategists in Australia who say that we may never see a majority government again, which
05:18I find kind of hard to believe, but you know, that's what they say. And you see the success
05:22of minority governments in various other sort of democracies comparable around the world,
05:26and they, they function effectively. So, but I think you're right. I think this election
05:30seems like a little bit different insofar as both major parties to different degrees
05:35of success, I'd argue probably the Labor Party has been very successful insofar as looking
05:40at different ways to reach younger voters, particularly with its policy offerings, but
05:43also by the, the PN spent a lot of time on podcasts, you know, talking to influencers,
05:50being able to sort of communicate to, to younger voters who don't usually have a strong interest
05:55in politics on their terms and on platforms that they sort of absorb is a really effective
06:00way. It was proving an effective way of campaigning.
06:02Toby, would you agree that perhaps the time of the majority government is over? We're now
06:08starting to see the minority parties, the independents, the teals start to creep in more
06:13into a more prominent political position.
06:16There's a Bruce Willis movie where there's a little kid at the end who says, I see dead
06:22people. And, um, one of my favorites, Sixth Sense. Yes.
06:27At the end that Bruce has been dead the entire time. Um, the two party system is Bruce Willis.
06:33It just hasn't worked out. It's dead yet. Um, it's been collapsing for decades. It's, there
06:39might be a majority this time, but that's probably the last one we'll see. I think, um, and it's
06:45happening, it's happening for a, there are some simple reasons and there are some complex
06:48reasons. If you want me to explain, I'm happy to, but, uh, um, the, yeah, it's, I, I think
06:54it's on its knees near death.
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