This Is The Nightmare Scenario In A Potential Peace Deal Between Russia And Ukraine_ FDD Expert

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Peter Duran, Adjunct Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, joined "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss what could possibly happen with a temporary peace deal.

Transcript

00:00Let's talk about embracing reality, because President Trump, he wants the killing to stop.

00:04He's said that as much. But let's say in this deal, Ukraine concedes some land to Russia.

00:09Based on history, based on what we're seeing now, is there any indication that that's good

00:14enough for Russia, that Russia would stop? Or does Russia want more?

00:19We know Russia wants more because Vladimir Putin has told us this. He has given several

00:25interviews over the last year in which he has been explicit, naming off all of the countries

00:30that used to be part of the far-flung Russian empire over a century ago and even longer older

00:37than that. And he has said, these are all Russian lands right now. I am focused specifically on

00:42Ukraine. What? So when the Ukrainians say we are a living shield for the rest of Europe,

00:48if we fall, Russia will then start attacking other U.S. allies in Europe. The Ukrainians are not off

00:54base. They're simply repeating what Putin himself has said are his intentions. These are very high

01:01stakes. Now, when it comes to how do we get to a ceasefire and a longer-term peace, obviously,

01:06freezing the line of battle where it is right now, not allowing Russia to take over parts of Ukraine

01:12that it does not currently control, and then injecting European security guarantors into this

01:18mix. Well, those are critical components of any enduring peace. That's where we need to get to.

01:23But right now, there are no indications that Putin has any desire to get to that point.

01:29I hear you when you say that these are really high stakes, but just how high are these stakes?

01:34Is there any indication that Ukraine concedes some land here and then Russia eventually steamrolls

01:40Ukraine? There's a World War III and they attack American allies in Europe.

01:46Well, I think that's an accurate assessment. Just think about this. Right now, according to public

01:51reporting, NATO's supreme allied headquarters in Europe has calculated that Russia will be in a

01:57position to attack a U.S.-NATO ally in Europe in less than five years, and that's under current

02:03conditions. What we could see as a nightmare scenario is that there is a short-term peace.

02:09The fighting stops. Russia rebuilds, retools, and has learned a lot of lessons from the war over the

02:15past few years and doesn't make any of the past mistakes again. That would be in line with Russia's

02:21traditional way of fighting. Fight, fight, fight, lose, lose, lose, learn those lessons, and then win,

02:27win, win. That's how Russia won on the Eastern Front in Europe, and that is our nightmare scenario

02:32in 21st century Europe. Preventing that means stabilizing the line of battle now,

02:38re-bolstering, re-equipping, re-arming Ukraine, and then making sure that we communicate through

02:45our alliance structures that any attack on Ukraine or a NATO country would be a catastrophic mistake

02:51on Russia's part. Signaling back in 2022 was all wrong, and we let perhaps Vladimir Putin believe

02:57he could do another smash and grab and take the whole country as he did in a smaller scale in 2014

03:02with Crimea. Signaling and action are how we prevent nightmare scenarios. Earlier this week,

03:10the United States threatened to abandon these peace talks if Ukraine and Russia couldn't come to an

03:15agreement. How real do you think that threat is, and what happens if the United States follows through

03:20on that? Well, certainly we have learned one important lesson, and that is Vladimir Putin doesn't

03:27bluff. If he says he's going to do something, he intends to follow through. One of the biggest mistakes

03:32that we've made in the West over the last two decades, two decades, think about that,

03:36is to hear what Vladimir Putin says and dismiss him thinking, well, that's too crazy, that's too

03:42aggressive, he would never try that or consider that, and yet Vladimir Putin always follows through

03:48on his threats. When Vladimir Putin says something, we need to take it very seriously and assume he's

03:54speaking the truth, at least from his perspective. President Trump's envoy, Steve Wyckoff, is in Moscow

04:00meeting with Putin today. What are you expecting to come out of that conversation? What are you

04:06looking out for after that meeting? I expect Putin to do what he's always done with Envoy Wyckoff,

04:13that is to play the good cop. Remember, his military plays the bad cop in this scenario.

04:18Often, he's very clearly created a close relationship with Envoy Wyckoff, perhaps too close. If the United

04:25States is acting as a neutral mediator between two warring parties, you don't want to be seen as

04:30favoring one side, it will antagonize the other side. So I expect Vladimir Putin to insert new

04:37poison pills into the negotiation process, saying, well, if only the Ukrainians would give me one more

04:44thing, then maybe I'd think about stopping my armies from fighting the Ukrainians. Obviously,

04:51he's playing for time. He's drinking along the White House. He thinks he's in control of these

04:56negotiations because he's not negotiating. He's dictating terms. Vladimir Putin is dictating the

05:01terms of a potential peace. That's not good for the United States. It's terrible for the Ukrainians.

05:07And that's why, like I said, we should slam the door on Putin's negotiation technique,

05:12take off the velvet gloves, and apply maximum economic pressure on Russia to force Putin screaming

05:18to the peace table, begging for a ceasefire. That's how you negotiate with Moscow.

05:23Well, there's certainly a lot to look out for. And as the situation continues to develop,

05:28Peter Duran, I hope you come back on and break it down with us. Thank you so much for joining me.

05:32You're welcome back anytime. Thank you for having me.

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