US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is heading to Moscow for high-stakes talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin—talks that analysts warn could reshape the future of Ukraine’s sovereignty, Europe’s security, and America’s role in the conflict.
In this interview, Ivana Stradner of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies delivers a stark assessment of Witkoff’s strategy, arguing that he is “falling for old KGB-style tactics” and underestimating Putin’s goal to stall, extract concessions, and paint Ukraine as unreliable. Stradner warns that Putin is expected to reject the proposed peace framework and return with new maximalist demands.
00:00Ivana Stradna is a research fellow with the Russia program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
00:06She joins us from Washington, D.C. A welcome to DW.
00:10Is any of today's European diplomatic activity in Brussels and in Paris likely to have any effect on tomorrow's talks in Moscow?
00:21As we just heard on your show, nothing about Europe without Europe.
00:26So I think that's the approach that we need to have, because the most important thing that we have to understand right now is that Putin is trying to put a bull in Ukraine's court and to ask maximalist demands.
00:43And unfortunately, Mr. Witkoff has been falling for this typical old KGB game for a very long time.
00:49So I have no doubt that tomorrow Russia will reject the initial plan to ask again maximalist demands to put back the paper back in Washington, D.C. to be discussed for two reasons.
01:04Number one, to portray Ukraine as a non-reliable ally.
01:07And number two, to buy more time because Putin does not want to end this war anytime soon.
01:13So that's precisely what we have to understand how Putin thinks these days.
01:18But let's not get into the land of wishful thinking.
01:21You say nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.
01:24Witkoff goes to Moscow tomorrow and comes back, as you suspect, with a list of Russian demands.
01:30My question to you was, has anything that has happened today in Brussels and Paris, is anything likely to have any effect on tomorrow's talks in Moscow?
01:41And it's in Moscow. And it sounds like you think the answer to that question is no.
01:45So, you know, Putin doesn't even consider Europe as a serious actor, and that's why he's trying to negotiate with the United States.
01:56And that's something that Europe should absolutely reject, because Europe should be the one, you know, deciding about Europe's future.
02:03And Ukraine is part of Europe.
02:05What the United States has to do right now is to understand that one of the most important and pillar of our gravity is our alliances.
02:15And even though Mr. Trump is in a rush to sign any deal, and I mean literally any deal, he has to understand that it's better to have no deal in the short run than to have any deal in the long run.
02:27And that's precisely why Europe discussing security guarantees, why Europe discussing the future economic development, and why Europe discussing European and NATO path for Ukraine has to be on the table.
02:40Because after all, Europe is also to put, the EU is also to put in a context like the great power, and we should not forget that.
02:50Let me just push back against that again, because the United States doesn't have to do anything.
02:55The United States just has to do what it feels like it has to do, whether that be put a deal to Ukraine that Ukraine finds unacceptable,
03:05or puts to Ukraine the fact that you sign the deal, or we walk away.
03:10The United States has to do what it feels in its best interest.
03:14So, a couple of things.
03:17I think it's very important not to discuss what Trump says, but what he does.
03:21And I doubt that he's going to abandon Ukraine in the long run.
03:25What Trump also misunderstands about Russia is that Putin is...
03:28Let me just interrupt on that part and ask you why you believe that,
03:33when everything that we've seen so far tends to indicate that he's moving in that direction.
03:39Why do you believe he will not walk away from Ukraine?
03:44I don't believe that it's in the US interest to do that.
03:48And Trump is, after all, a very pragmatic leader.
03:51He understands that Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are working together against also the United States.
03:57He doesn't, you know, like Putin, because he believes that Putin is a wonderful ally of the United States.
04:04What he misunderstands about negotiating with Putin is that he's trying to use his business strategy,
04:10about win-win strategy, negotiation, trying to implement real estate tools and techniques,
04:16trying to change Putin's behavior.
04:18Unfortunately, it doesn't work.
04:20But let's also call a spade a spade.
04:22It was President Trump that did two really good things.
04:25And we have to give a credit where credit is due.
04:27Number one, to remove nuclear weapons threat that Russia has been banging for a very long time in front of Europe's and US eyes.
04:36And the second thing, impose sanctions, further sanctions on Russia.
04:40And I would not be surprised if further sanctions would be on the horizon and also arming Ukraine even more after Putin rejects the peace.
04:49So I really don't think that President Trump will abandon Ukraine in the long run.
04:55Are we any clearer on what the 28-point peace plan that Ukraine and the Europeans found so objectionable,
05:02are we any clearer on what that has now morphed into?
05:06So that 28-piece plan was absolutely unacceptable,
05:12which asks Ukraine to abandon its territory, to give up on its NATO membership, and to limit its military.
05:20We also understand here in Washington, D.C., that Mr. Zelensky is not going to accept something like that.
05:29So as Mr. Rubio correctly emphasized, you know, that we have to think about the future of Ukraine.
05:35We have to think about long-term peace.
05:37So I think it's too early to speculate anything, but I would absolutely not exclude the idea that the U.S. is trying, you know, to push Ukraine.
05:49I would absolutely not support the idea that the United States is trying to push Ukraine to give up its territory because that's not going to work.
05:57Thanks so much for joining us, Ivana.
05:59Ivana Stradner from the Foundation for Defence of Democracies.
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