Looking ahead to next week

AccuWeather long-range expert Joe Lundberg was live on the AccuWeather Network on April 24 with a look at what's in store for next week.

Transcript

00:00Joining me right now is Accu with a long-range expert. You know who he is, the crystal ball meteorologist Joe Lumberg.

00:05Lots to talk about for next week, of course, Joe. Let's take a look at what we were talking about last week.

00:13And if you look at the pattern going forward for the end of April and really into the beginning of May,

00:18it's not going to look a lot different than next week.

00:20A weak trough in the west, general flat flow across the country with a tendency for ridging,

00:25which means a lot of mild air or temperatures on the plus side of average, most of the cool air for the Rockies and the Pacific Northwest.

00:32And as storms come through, guess what? You're going to have to deal with rounds of severe weather, I think, into the beginning of May.

00:39Of course, Joe, now we are talking about the end of April, and that forecast looks spot on.

00:45Yeah, as we go into the beginning of next week, we're going to come right out of the gate with an outbreak of severe weather,

00:51we think Monday into Tuesday, across the central plains that will spread toward the portions of the Great Lakes,

00:56the Ohio Valley, and even into the southern plains.

00:58Unfortunately, the flip side of that, you'd need the rain in the east, as Ariella was talking about,

01:03for a portion of the mid-Atlantic and Pennsylvania, and also all the way down into Florida.

01:06But there's not going to be much as we go through next week and into the early part of May.

01:11Increasing heat, that's going to be a factor in the west later next week, and we'll show you why.

01:15Here's the big pattern. Middle part of the week, you'll see this dip in the jet stream.

01:18It really doesn't tell the whole story. There'll be an upper-level low in here to begin the week.

01:23There'll also be a feature that'll be going in this way in the Monday-Tuesday time frame,

01:27and that's what's going to drive the severe weather outbreak that we'll see in here early in the week.

01:31But notice all of the warmth in here. Eventually, though, this trough moves downstream, and as it does, guess what?

01:36This ridge pokes up, and that's why we expect the heat to build in the west as the week progresses.

01:41How about the severe weather potential?

01:43Monday, really from portions of Minnesota, maybe the eastern Dakotas, but eastern Nebraska and Iowa,

01:48all the way down into Oklahoma, that'll be spreading east, obviously damaging winds and hail,

01:53a threat of tornadoes and flash flooding, and this carries over into Tuesday as well.

01:57You know, and with these showers and thunderstorms later next week, Joe,

02:01we're afraid that boundary stalls, and stalled boundaries always mean one thing, the risk of flash flooding.

02:09You remember that upper-level pattern that we showed you?

02:11It was that little dip in the southwest. There's a second piece of that.

02:14As it comes out, the frontal boundary stalls in this general area, so as it does, that feature comes out,

02:20and guess what? It activates it, and that's going to mean more rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

02:24The weight of the rain is probably going to be more for Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, and down into Texas,

02:29but notice how that spreads eastward, and that's why we've got this area circled in here for a flood risk for next week.

02:36And, of course, we could use the rain, Joe. Still a good portion of the central U.S., not where we're looking for the rain, of course,

02:44but the central and western U.S. is dry, and look at that drought along the I-95 corridor in the east.

02:51I mean, areas from southwest Texas into the desert southwest, you're bone dry, and you're not going to get any meaningful rain anytime soon.

02:58You're going to get more than you need in these areas. You're already too wet,

03:01but notice most of the mid-Atlantic seaboard all the way down into Florida is abnormally dry to drought conditions

03:06and there's really not going to be much going on. As we look ahead into May, a couple of quick takes,

03:12I think most of the country is going to be warm, no persistent severe weather, and I would add one more.

03:16It's probably not going to be much meaningful rainfall for Florida.

03:20AccuWeather long-range expert meteorologist Joe Lumberg. Joe will be back with us at 9.15.