Explore Catching Freedom's Comeback in Race 11 of the Pick 4

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00:00Ted on out there, Alexa, for the grade three mineshaft.

00:03That's going to be race number 11.

00:05This kicks off our late pick four sequence.

00:07This is a race where you have older horses.

00:09And I think the horse to beat,

00:11the one that they'll all remember the name of,

00:14is Catching Freedom.

00:16Catching Freedom won the Louisiana Derby last year.

00:18Catching Freedom was fourth in the Kentucky Derby,

00:21was third in the Preakness.

00:22He was one of the better three-year-olds.

00:24So this will be the first start of his four-year-old season.

00:27You have him on top.

00:28I mean, he's the class of the field.

00:29We know he likes the fairgrounds.

00:31It seems like he's the one they all have to hold off.

00:33Yeah, absolutely is.

00:34You know, he's, like you said,

00:35no stranger to this high-level competition.

00:38Been off since June,

00:39but trainer Brad Cox wins 38% of the time

00:42when bringing horses back after more than six months off.

00:45So, you know, there's a lot of upside here.

00:48I do think he'll be the favorite.

00:49I'm hoping he'll stay kind of a tepid favorite.

00:51You see the morning line is three to one.

00:53I mean, that would be awesome if he stayed there.

00:56Even two to one, I think, would be a good spot

00:59for him, odds-wise.

01:00I really like one horse in this particular race,

01:02the number four Hall of Fame.

01:04He was very highly regarded last year as a three-year-old.

01:08The problem was every time when he stepped up

01:10and faced the better horses, he just kind of folded.

01:13So he's been the type of horse who has looked awesome

01:16when everything goes well for him,

01:18but when he's kind of been punched,

01:19he hasn't really been able to punch back yet.

01:22Now he's older.

01:23He's two for two this year at four.

01:25I think he has a chance to be like a really good

01:28top-of-the-division older horse.

01:30It starts right here, though.

01:31He has to have a big win,

01:32and it could be in a spot like this

01:33when he is facing a horse like Catching Freedom

01:36coming off of a layoff.

01:38So Catching Freedom has not raced for a while.

01:40Maybe Hall of Fame can have that fitness advantage over him,

01:43and he's a little bit faster early in the race,

01:46so he can kind of get the jump on a horse

01:47like Catching Freedom.

01:48So we're gonna use two horses

01:50to try to kick off the pick four.

01:51We need either the four or the five to get the job done,

01:55and then Alexa, we'll move to a really tricky 12th race.

01:59It's the Fairgrounds.

02:01It's a mile and an eighth race on the turf horse,

02:03and we felt like we needed to use a good amount in here

02:07just to get through.

02:08Why don't you start us off?

02:09You're gonna talk a little bit

02:10about the inside couple, right?

02:12Yeah, the number one What Say Thee we're using

02:15at four and a half to one morning line odds.

02:16One last out in a lifetime best performance,

02:19although that was back in November.

02:20So coming off a bit of a decent layoff

02:22to start his seven-year-old campaign.

02:25So this is the first time they're trying him

02:27in a graded stakes in his entire life, but he fits.

02:31I think he really peaked last year in his six-year-old

02:33career, he has that closing speed,

02:35and I think will likely be near the back of the pack

02:38early on.

02:39You can see time from US does give him that LP white flag,

02:41which is the best late pace in the race.

02:43We'll also use the two Gigante at three and a half to one

02:46who won his last two races in a row,

02:48both stakes races at fairgrounds in December and January.

02:53One was on the turf, one was on the dirt

02:54because it was raining that day,

02:56and so they took it off of the turf,

02:58but turf definitely is his preferred surface.

03:00He's the only one in here who ran in this race last year

03:03where he got fourth place.

03:04So like What Say Thee, he's also a closer,

03:07but does tend to stay closer to the pace

03:10than What Say Thee does.

03:11So I definitely think he seems to be at the top of his game,

03:13has a good shot in here.

03:15Another horse to the outside that we'll use

03:17is Taking Candy, appropriate name for Valentine's Day.

03:21Right?

03:22Yes.

03:23Trainer Sherita Vo, who has a very successful meet

03:26so far at fairgrounds.

03:27She's had 50 starters.

03:29Half of them have hit the board

03:31and Taking Candy is coming off a three month layoff as well.

03:33But his last time out in November,

03:34he ran a length behind What Say Thee,

03:37had a decent trip.

03:38So there wasn't like a huge excuse for why he lost.

03:41He just was just outkicked.

03:43But as you can see, time from US does predict

03:45it's gonna be the other way around this time.

03:47Still a one, two finish,

03:48but this time with Taking Candy winning.

03:51We had a bag of those Nerds gummy clusters

03:53that were supposed to be for Milo, my son's school.

03:55And I actually took the bag.

03:57So I know exactly what we're talking about.

03:58Nerds have gotten me this year.

04:01I hadn't had them in like 10 years

04:02and I've just been eating Nerds.

04:04Sorry, Candy, you were taken.

04:06We'll also use the three unit economics.

04:09This horse had to launch really wide,

04:11had to come from the back,

04:12had to go very wide and lost to a horse

04:14who got a perfect trip.

04:16I really liked the three unit economics.

04:18The four, I'd rather be blessed,

04:20is a horse who should be flashing really good speed.

04:22So could be part of the early pace

04:24and could hang on for a share there.

04:26So we're gonna spread out.

04:27We felt like we needed to use the one, two, three,

04:29four and eight in race number 12.

04:32We moved to the 13th.

04:33Alexa, these are the fillies

04:35looking for Kentucky Oaks points.

04:36And we have a couple of good fillies in here.

04:39In particular, the number two, Good Cheer,

04:41who you can set us up for.

04:43Yeah, Good Cheer.

04:44Do you see this saddlecloth behind me for Mon Moi Girl?

04:47One of my all-time favorite horses.

04:50She ran 17 times, won 14 of them.

04:52The other three, she got second.

04:54She won the Breeders' Cup,

04:55Disc Tap in the World Championships twice.

04:57She won the Kentucky Oaks.

04:58Before all of that, at the very start of her career,

05:01she had an identical lineup, same trainer,

05:03identical career path for her first four races

05:06coming into this race.

05:07And Good Cheer is doing better than she did

05:10because Good Cheer is undefeated,

05:12where one of those second place finishes

05:14for Mon Moi Girl was in that.

05:15So, I mean, she's great.

05:17I can't wait to watch her race.

05:19Good Cheer is the undefeated one to beat.

05:22You have Simply Joking, the number six,

05:24who's kind of like the now horse,

05:26who's logical, who's won both of her starts.

05:29She fits.

05:30And then I'm gonna throw in a big price, Alexa,

05:32of the number four, Gowl's Delight,

05:34because she just had a really troubled trip

05:35at Oaklawn Park last time out.

05:37She never had a shot there.

05:39So we'll go two, four, and six,

05:41and we can pull up the pick four ticket now, Alexa,

05:44because we already talked about race number 14.

05:46So here's what it looks like.

05:48Altogether, it's a $60 investment

05:50if we use two horses in the 11th.

05:52So two times five.

05:54Make sure you multiply the amount of horses

05:56you're gonna use in each race.

05:58This is our parlay.

05:59So we basically got a 14 parlay

06:01for our all graded stakes pick four.

06:04There's the ticket.

06:05Hopefully we can lead you in the right direction.

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