Trump's call: Does direct overture to Putin betray Ukraine?

Name: Trump's call: Does direct overture to Putin betray Ukraine?
Uploaded: 2025-02-13T20:15:01+00:00
Duration: 43 min 4 s
Channel: FRANCE 24 English

00:00How about that phone call?

00:02The U.S. president going over the heads of the Ukrainian and Europeans promising talks

00:08immediately with Vladimir Putin.

00:10This on the same day that his new defense secretary told NATO counterparts that returning

00:15to the Ukrainian borders of 2014 was unrealistic.

00:19Donald Trump may not have forced to sit down on day one of his presidency as he had boasted

00:24he would do as a candidate, but here it comes.

00:27What can Volodymyr Zelensky do or say as he meets in person in Munich with the likes of

00:34Pete Hegseth, Vice President J.D. Vance, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines

00:40of the upcoming Munich security conference?

00:43The likes of France insist they'll continue to honor bilateral security agreements with

00:47Ukraine with or without the United States, but by keeping out Russia's neighbors in Europe,

00:54Is this the beginning of the end of the NATO alliance as we know it, the one that's kept

01:00the peace on the continent and kept it throughout the Cold War?

01:03With Trump wanting the EU to finance Ukraine's reconstruction, what do Europeans ask for

01:09in return?

01:10What leverage do they have?

01:12Today in the France 24 debate, we're asking about Trump's call with us.

01:17She covered Trump's first term from the White House for us.

01:21France 24 International Affairs Editor Ketavan Ghorjasstani, thanks for being with us.

01:26Thanks as well from the village of Bonneville-la-Louvée in the northwest Normandy region of France,

01:33Germany's former ambassador to NATO, Joachim Biderlich.

01:36Good to see you.

01:37Pleasure, as always.

01:39Anastasia Czapoczkina, President of the Eastern Circle's think tank lecture in geopolitics

01:45at the French political science institute Sciences Po.

01:48France's former ambassador to Russia, Jean de Gligny-Assis, your latest book is in French.

01:54It's called Geopolitics of Russia in 40 charts.

01:57Is that how you would translate it roughly?

01:59Chapters, yeah.

02:0040 chapters.

02:01Thanks for being with us.

02:02By the way, you can listen, like and subscribe to the France 24 debate wherever podcasts

02:06are streamed.

02:08There were those who hoped Donald Trump might, you know, quietly forget his campaign promise

02:12to force a settlement on Ukraine.

02:15It didn't happen on day one, but here it comes.

02:18Yinka Oyotadi has more.

02:20It's probably the most talking Washington and Moscow have done since the start of the

02:25war in Ukraine.

02:27After a phone call that lasted almost 90 minutes with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Donald

02:32Trump announced the two sides agreed to immediately start talks to end the war.

02:37Peace that the U.S. leader believes could come soon.

02:40We talked about the possibility, I mentioned it, of a ceasefire so we can stop the killing

02:44and I think we'll probably end up at some point getting a ceasefire in the not too distant

02:48future.

02:49In a sign that Kiev may see its fate decided by the U.S. and Russia, Trump called the Ukrainian

02:55president only after speaking to Putin.

02:58In spite of this, Volodymyr Zelensky praised Trump for what he says is his genuine interest

03:03in securing peace.

03:06President Trump informed me of what Putin had told him.

03:10We believe that America's strength is enough to, together with us, together with all our

03:15partners, enough to push Russia and Putin towards peace.

03:20The Kremlin's statement on the call was more measured, with no sign that Moscow is prepared

03:25to soften its stance.

03:29President Putin, for his part, mentioned the need to eliminate the root causes of the conflict

03:35and agreed with Trump that a long-term settlement could be achieved through peaceful negotiations.

03:41Reacting to the call, the EU says it must be part of any peace deal.

03:46There will be no just and lasting peace in Ukraine without the participation of the Europeans,

03:52whether that's with NATO.

03:54For peace to be lasting, the Europeans will have to contribute.

03:57Donald Trump says he'll likely hold talks with his Russian counterpart in Saudi Arabia

04:02soon.

04:03Kerevan Gorjastani, Donald Trump keeps his campaign promises.

04:08Your thoughts on this call, which happens, what, a little over three weeks into his presidency,

04:14but it's happened.

04:15It's happened, and there was a little bit of a debate just a few days ago when he was

04:20asked whether he had spoken to Vladimir Putin.

04:22He had simply left it pretty vague, saying he had a call, but he didn't define whether

04:28he had it before or after taking office.

04:31It seems that that had happened before he had taken office, and this is the first official

04:36call of the sitting US president.

04:39The fact that he managed to have it so quickly shows that he, as he has said, and on that

04:46I think we can believe him, is that he doesn't really care who wins or loses in this fight.

04:54What he wants is to have a deal, because he said he was going to have a deal, and he has

05:00presented himself as the peacemaker, the deal maker, and so he went for, I assume,

05:08the one that he thinks is in a stronger position, maybe, but the result is that he had that

05:15call with Vladimir Putin first, and then spoke to Vladimir Zelensky, and doesn't look like

05:23the Europeans knew that this was going to happen.

05:26The Kremlin spokesperson saying Ukraine would participate one way or another in any talks

05:31to end the war, but that there would be a separate US-Russian track to the talks, as

05:37for Donald Trump, but listen as he really does go over the head of Vladimir Zelensky.

05:42Do you view Ukraine as an equal member of this peace process?

05:49It's an interesting question.

05:52I think they have to make peace.

05:54Their people are being killed, and I think they have to make peace.

05:58I said that was not a good war to go into, and I think they have to make peace, that's

06:02what I think.

06:03Would you support Zelensky ceding territory or exchanging territory in any agreement to

06:08end the war?

06:09Well, he's going to have to do what he has to do, but, you know, his poll numbers aren't

06:15particularly great, to put it mildly.

06:18He's got a country where, you know, it's been savaged and attacked.

06:23His poll numbers aren't great.

06:25Anastasia Shapochkina several times during those remarks, Donald Trump calling on Zelensky

06:30to hold elections.

06:31They've been delayed because of the war.

06:34Does he have it in for Zelensky, personally?

06:36Well, if I were Donald Trump, I'd be the last person to talk about poll numbers starting

06:41his presidency with the lowest approval ratings of many, many, many US presidents.

06:46Gone up since, though.

06:48Well, gone up since, but I would not be very well placed if I were Donald Trump to talk

06:52about approval ratings.

06:54Now, the elections, presidential elections in Ukraine, obviously do not fall under any

07:00international standards if they're conducted now.

07:03And this is something that Kremlin has pushed a lot for, because of course, any, if they

07:07are conducted now, any outcome can be rejected.

07:09So you're saying Donald Trump was using a Kremlin talking point there?

07:12Absolutely Kremlin talking point.

07:13This is not the only one, just one about of 24, but it is a major one because of course,

07:19it allow Kremlin both to endorse a candidate that Kremlin would make participate in these

07:25elections and promote or reject a candidate if it doesn't like it, because having an election

07:30in a country, one fifth of it, when one fifth of it is occupied by a foreign power, it is

07:37absolutely renders the election illegitimate, even more so when between five to 10 million

07:43people have exhorted the country and will, and even more so when the rest of the population

07:49can be bombed while the election is taking place.

07:52And therefore a lot of people will be just afraid to participate.

07:55So this election is set for the Kremlin to then be able to deny, render illegitimate.

07:59And saying that, refusing to answer on whether or not Ukraine was an equal member of the

08:04peace process.

08:06This is another, a much more powerful Kremlin point that Trump is playing there because

08:11of course for Vladimir Putin, Ukraine, the president has never been seen as an equal

08:16to himself.

08:17To Vladimir Putin, the equal is, for example, US president, maybe Xi Jinping is an equal,

08:22but that's it.

08:23And he stated it in numerous speeches that Putin gave over years.

08:28And Trump with this phone call has demonstrated that indeed he is, he hasn't deported too

08:35much from his position and his view of Russia of 2016 when he claimed that he doesn't have

08:41any ground to trust Putin less than to trust the CIA.

08:44And now what do we see?

08:46He is having a very amicable, what he's calling productive call with Vladimir Putin while

08:50he's about to dismantle the whole of the CIA.

08:52So he's believing definitely true to himself and to his electoral promise.

08:56But when he is exactly like Putin treating Ukraine, not as a Ukrainian president, not

09:02as an equal, as a president of a state, but just as a subject to whether Russia he's saying

09:10or not Russia, it doesn't matter.

09:11Somebody's subject.

09:12Ukraine is going to be part of something.

09:13It doesn't even allow for Ukraine as an independent state, even in theory, then this is very,

09:19of course, concerning.

09:20And this is definitely a Kremlin point.

09:22Joakim Birolis, if you support Ukraine and you want to remain an optimist, you can say

09:28that Donald Trump is somebody who enjoys performative politics, likes to grab headlines,

09:34likes to shock people.

09:37If you're more pessimistic, you're saying, as you just heard, Donald Trump is doing Vladimir

09:43Putin's bidding.

09:45Is that the case?

09:46Well, I'm a bit surprised what I'm hearing tonight here, because for me, Trump's step

09:54is not at all a surprise.

09:56I was sure he would launch talk, try to launch talks in this way.

10:02My secret wish had been that he should have found to Putin together with Xi Jinping.

10:09But for me, the whole relation, Russia-Ukraine, has been from the beginning, from 1991, what

10:18I call an agreement to disagree.

10:22We saw this as an independent state.

10:24We accepted Ukraine as an independent state.

10:27But in Moscow, in my eyes, no one has ever accepted Ukraine as a really independent state.

10:36Therefore, all the arguments about elections, put aside Ukrainian elections in the eyes

10:43of Moscow, have never been legitimate elections.

10:48And so on what you heard, is it shocking?

10:52Is it acceptable?

10:54Well, I saw this way from the beginning.

11:00For me, it's the only way to get into talks.

11:04Otherwise, Putin will refuse any talks, for example, under European auspices or under

11:10auspices of Macron and Schultz still today.

11:15What he likes is to talk directly to the U.S., whom he considers as the only equal partner

11:23for him.

11:25Is it rewarding, Vladimir Putin, though?

11:29It's a recognition of facts, no more, no less, for me.

11:35Jean de Grignesti, when you think back to your time as ambassador in Moscow, this idea

11:41that Russia didn't see Ukraine as an independent state?

11:46Well, Russia could accept Ukraine as an independent state, provided that it would be a friendly

11:56state.

11:57And I remember some high-ranking official telling me, it was in 2012, saying, for us,

12:09Ukraine is a problem solved.

12:12Why?

12:13Because we got the neutrality in the law.

12:17We got the Russian language in the law.

12:21And we got the lease on the Sebastopol base for our fleet.

12:27But for us, it's OK.

12:29And for them, all the trouble began with Maidan.

12:35As you can imagine, Russian state television, in overdrive after the news broke, with some,

12:42like the host of Russia One's big evening news chat show, pinching himself.

12:49You'll notice that there are no negative connotations or judgments in Donald Trump's words.

12:55He never talks about Russia's aggression or unjustified attack.

12:59He never talks about those horrible war criminals.

13:02No, he speaks very calmly, very politely, refers to history, and takes into account

13:08the root causes of this conflict.

13:15Seen here from the West, it gets the sense that seeing the delight of Russian chat shows,

13:27it does seem startling.

13:29Well, I don't know.

13:31I think Trump is a realistic man.

13:35He wants to compete with China, not with Russia.

13:41And so he took every means to assuage Russia.

13:47And that's why he didn't insult Putin.

13:51And that's why most probably will yield a lot to Russia in the Ukrainian negotiation.

13:58Kerevan Gorjastani?

13:59He has already yielded a lot.

14:02He has basically given at least what the first initial demands of Vladimir Putin were.

14:09He has given him all of that.

14:12You've seen Pete Hexeth talking about how NATO membership, forget about it.

14:18U.S. being involved in security guarantees for Ukraine, forget about it.

14:23Returning to 2014 borders, forget about it.

14:26And when you look at that, this is negotiation 101.

14:30Maybe this is where you'll get in the end, but you don't give those right away.

14:35And I just want to quote John Bolton, who was the former national security adviser turned

14:40foe of Donald Trump, and who said, by making these concessions, even before the negotiations

14:49have started, he, Trump, has effectively surrendered to Putin on Ukraine.

14:55He's basically giving him everything that Vladimir Putin had said in the end, and he's

15:01not leaving any bargaining chips to the Ukrainians, to Vladimir Zelensky, if one day they get

15:08into an actual Ukraine-Russia negotiation.

15:11There is a nuance for that, because Biden said exactly the same thing.

15:18But Biden said, I don't want Ukraine in NATO.

15:22Biden said Ukraine in NATO is inevitable.

15:26Biden never said anything nearer than what Trump said.

15:30Definitely very different.

15:31He said no, concretely.

15:33Okay, but let's listen to a clip that I'm sure that you did not hear from Lloyd Austin,

15:39the U.S. defense secretary under Biden.

15:41The new defense secretary, the one that Ketavan is referring to, by the way, himself also

15:46a former television talk show personality, Pete Hegseth in his first major foreign foray

15:53after his confirmation in the U.S. Senate, telling NATO counterparts in Brussels to give

15:57up on maximalist demands.

16:01We will only end this devastating war and establish a durable peace by coupling allied

16:08strength with a realistic assessment of the battlefield.

16:14We want, like you, a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine.

16:20But we must start by recognizing that returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic

16:27objective.

16:29Unrealistic objective.

16:30You heard Ketavan saying that that is a bad negotiating strategy.

16:35But is he telling the truth there?

16:37You won't be returning to the 2014 borders.

16:40To be precise, the U.S. does not have any negotiating strategy.

16:45It is just repeating what Russia has said, has always repeated, and it doesn't have any

16:52position whatsoever.

16:54It has failed negotiation 101 course absolutely perfectly, starting with saying how pressed

17:00for time Trump was, that he at first had only 24 hours to negotiate.

17:04I wonder if anybody who's ever negotiated has ever given up how much time they had from

17:10the very start and said how little time they had.

17:13And then second, laid out, repeated every single demand as a starting point of the adversary

17:18and then yielded immediately.

17:20Absolute failure.

17:21But second is to come back to the point made by a former ambassador just previously about

17:26the facts.

17:28Of course, we can all yield, being France, Germany, the U.S., anybody at all, to the

17:35Russian point of view and to the Russian view of the world by saying this is a fact.

17:40You know what?

17:41Ukraine is part of Russia.

17:42As Trump said, part of Russia, part of something else.

17:44We don't care.

17:45But the facts are that Russia, after the fall of the Soviet Union, has become a legal heir.

17:50This is a term that was employed, a legal heir of the Soviet Union and the United Nations.

17:56Pravopriyemnik, okay, the Russian word.

18:00As a pravopriyemnik, or the legal heir of the Soviet Union and the United Nations.

18:05Taking its veto right at the Security Council.

18:08Also right.

18:09As part of the UN General Assembly, it recognized both Russia and Ukraine as independent states.

18:17And it has not changed its position ever since.

18:20For me, this is the fact.

18:23This is a legal fact.

18:25Now then, there is, of course, the view of Vladimir Putin.

18:29And that is absolutely correctly never assumed that Ukraine is a state and that Ukrainian

18:35presence is unequal.

18:36Is Pete Hegseth right when he says, look, let's be realistic.

18:40We're not going back to the 2014 borders.

18:42It's just the facts on the ground.

18:44Whether Pete Hegseth is right or not depends only on the Pentagon.

18:50And if this is his vision of the future, it's the stretch of his imagination and the imagination

18:55of his boss, Donald Trump, which is going to define the future.

18:58If this is as far as their imagination is stretching, if this is as far as they are

19:04able to commit resources, that indeed will be the future.

19:08However, we have to understand that if the US enters into a major geopolitical struggle

19:15today with zero negotiating position for a simple reason that the people who are negotiating

19:21have zero competence about what they're negotiating about, that means something for the European

19:26Union as well.

19:28Because if you listen to Putin's addresses to the Federal Assembly, where he outlined

19:33exactly his vision, not only of Ukrainian president, but also of the presidents of France

19:37and Germany, you may read and you may find quotes of the last four years that he is exactly

19:45the same way that he views France and Germany as countries which used to be big empires,

19:49but today became small and powerless states.

19:53And I quote there.

19:54And this means something when you look into the future as Pete Hegseth sees it.

20:00This means something for the future of Europe when you listen to Pete Hegseth and he's saying

20:04now it is up to the Europeans to take the future into their own hands.

20:07It means that it's not just Ukraine that the US is about to ditch right now.

20:10It is about to ditch Europe as well.

20:12Well, we heard sharp reaction to what the US defense secretary, usually when there's

20:17a NATO meeting going on, allies are hesitant about so openly criticizing a fellow member,

20:27especially when it's the most powerful one by far.

20:30Let's take a listen.

20:31It is clear that any deal behind our backs will not work.

20:38Any agreement will need also Ukraine and Europe being part of it.

20:45And this is clear that appeasement also always, always fails.

20:52It is regrettable.

20:53And I say this myself, but it's part of the truth.

20:56The Trump administration has already made public concessions to Putin before negotiations

21:01have even begun.

21:03Joachim Biederlich, you're listening there to Boris Pistorius.

21:10Since when are Germans so feisty?

21:13Well, I understand the Europeans insofar, because they feel a bit put aside by the Americans.

21:24And I've been expecting such a step by the Americans.

21:28But the Europeans should have, at an earlier stage, made it clear to the Americans what's

21:35their strategy of negotiations with Putin, in order to get Putin at the table of negotiations.

21:44I did never hear any word of the Europeans insofar.

21:49And therefore, well, it's perhaps in many eyes the wrong step in the beginning.

21:55Yes, maybe.

21:57But now let's see whether Putin comes at the table, and what could be, let's say, the bargaining

22:07chips in such a negotiation.

22:10Did you agree with Boris Pistorius that it's very poor negotiating to make these statements

22:17from the get-go?

22:18But, you know, it's very nice for me to tell this now to the German media.

22:27What I'm waiting for since months is what's the European strategy, including of that of

22:33the Germans, of the German government, of Mr. Pistorius and Mrs. Baerbock and Mr. Scholz.

22:39What is their strategy towards, let's say, a peacemaking process in Ukraine?

22:46I regret.

22:47I've made proposals from 2019, just before the beginning of the invasion, yes.

22:55I've not been taken seriously by anyone in Berlin or in Paris.

23:00The only one who took me seriously were the British.

23:03And I'm still astonished why the Europeans, let's say, trying to assist the Ukraine, Ukraine

23:12has not been up to now the real winner of the war.

23:17And therefore, it's a bit strange to hear now, let's say, talking badly about the Americans.

23:28I regret what the Secretary of State has presented in NATO is what I call the realistic situation,

23:37as it is.

23:38And therefore, you have to make a first move to get Putin at the table.

23:44Otherwise, you will not get him at the table.

23:48Because I don't see a majority in NATO accepting the accession of Ukraine.

23:54I don't see especially the Americans, neither the former nor the actual administration,

24:00ready to do so.

24:02The same applies, by the way, to the European Union.

24:05And therefore, the guarantees of security, who could give such guarantees?

24:13The Europeans, without the Americans, are too weak to do it.

24:18Therefore, what's for me the astonishing side of the Europeans is this defensive position,

24:27inviting Trump to act in the way he has always been acting.

24:34Let's pick up on that point.

24:36Even though Trump, as you say, said that he would try to force a deal, Europeans, like

24:41foreign ministers who met Wednesday right here in Paris to talk about Ukraine, were

24:46clearly caught out.

24:49One senior official telling the Financial Times that Trump sees us as money, and frankly,

24:55we haven't been clear on what our seat at the table would look like in exchange for

25:00that money.

25:01And a quote.

25:05Is there a point taken there, Anastasia Shepetskina, that the Europeans haven't formulated a clear

25:10plan of what they want?

25:11Because they do have financial clout if they don't have the military clout here.

25:15Absolutely.

25:16A point well taken about the lack of strategy by any separate, several countries have strategy

25:22and they voiced it clearly.

25:24But the European Union as a whole does not have a strategy and did not, was not ready

25:29to voice it.

25:30Now, that being said, Europe today is finding itself in exactly the same place as Ukraine

25:37vis-a-vis both Russia and the US.

25:40It's the European security architecture which is being negotiated now between Trump and

25:45Putin, because it is only the European security architecture that Putin said he cared about

25:51during the whole diplomatic negotiation before the start of the full scale invasion between

25:55December and February 2021-2022.

25:58He only cares about this.

26:00And the fact that Europe is finding itself outside, cut out of the negotiations, they

26:04will not be invited and they are not welcome because they are viewed, their leaders are

26:07viewed as the same insignificant, small country leaders and probably no country leaders, maybe

26:14some of them, as Ukrainian leader is.

26:17And the inability to react to that.

26:21Can the EU leverage its financial clout?

26:24How does it do it?

26:25Explain.

26:26First to first name, for example, you have Koubilius, who's been appointed now the defence

26:31representative for defence by the European Commission.

26:33And you have Kayakalis, who is now heading the Foreign Service.

26:36This is the former Estonian prime minister who's now there.

26:38And of course, you have von der Leyen, who is the head of the Commission.

26:41Now, any of them can come and remind that, for example, in 2023 and 2024, 50 percent

26:48of the physical military aid to Ukraine and financial military aid to Ukraine came from

26:53the European Union and 50 percent came from the US.

26:57And we're talking about really military aid, not some other aid.

27:00And then to say that any, if the US wants any of those points that they have evoked,

27:06for example, European troops or security guarantees or continued financial assistance, etc., they

27:12must be included through one person, two people, whatever the conditions, the Europeans, however

27:17Europeans define themselves, they must be included.

27:19Or else what?

27:20Or else they are not going to be the reliable ally America expects them to be.

27:26Because importantly, WellPick has us in his speech.

27:28But they're shooting themselves in the foot.

27:30If they decide that they walk away, it's the Ukrainians who suffer.

27:34But the negotiation between Europe and the US is not about Ukraine.

27:37The negotiation is about the alliance, which is both financial, trade and military alliance.

27:43Jean de Gligny-Astier.

27:45Well, I think it's a long, unfortunately, it's a long tradition of Europe to pay for

27:51the jazz band without setting the tune.

27:55So but they would like to, but they can't.

28:00Because they're so divided.

28:01Why?

28:02They are divided.

28:03They have different interests and so on.

28:05So I mean, you heard the urgency with which Kaya Kala spoke, the new EU foreign policy

28:10chief.

28:11She's from one of these frontline states, a former Soviet state, Estonia.

28:15But let's take this example.

28:18Kaja Kalas in June 2021 refused.

28:23She was the only one.

28:25She was prime minister of Estonia at that time.

28:28And at that time, Merkel and Macron seeing Biden and Putin discussing directly over the

28:38head of the Europeans in Geneva.

28:42It was a question of de-conflicting the Black Sea and some other items concerning Europe.

28:50And they discussed it directly without us.

28:53And so Merkel and Macron said, OK, we have to discuss with Putin.

28:57We have to take this file into our own hands.

29:01And Kaja Kalas at that time said, sorry, it's OK.

29:05The Americans deal with that and we are not in charge and so on.

29:10So I have doubt even about Kaja Kalas.

29:15Kelvin Gurdjiestani?

29:16I just I mean, yes, Europe has made many mistakes in the strategy and the lack or lack thereof.

29:24But I think there's one thing that really struck me and what Pete Hexeth was saying

29:30was that he's basically saying in the same breath.

29:35You Europeans have not been paying enough, have not been committing enough defence.

29:40You need to take matters into your own hand.

29:42This is your backyard.

29:43This is your problem.

29:44It's your continent, blah, blah, blah.

29:47And then they just made the biggest decision about Europe's future security over their

29:54heads without talking to them before.

29:56Because, yes, you can say, why didn't the Europeans go and talk to Trump before he spoke

30:01to Putin to give them their strategy?

30:04But the US is a European ally.

30:07The US, if they were playing their role as an ally, could have gone first to the Europeans

30:12and the Ukrainians.

30:13And this is what we're going to do.

30:16Do you have a better plan?

30:17They didn't.

30:19So they are acting not like the allies.

30:22And at the same time, they're asking the Europeans to take matters into their own hand, but they're

30:27not giving them a seat at the table to discuss the future of the security of Europe.

30:34Do you agree with that, Joachim Bitterlich, that the United States not playing its role

30:39as leader of NATO by not first consulting with its allies?

30:43Well, when I look back to American presidents, the last one who has been taking seriously

30:50the Europeans, the last two ones who has been taking seriously the Europeans have been Bush

30:57Sr. and Clinton.

31:00Since then, it's fading away.

31:03And my impression is, and I take the other file, which is as, let's say, it was a certain

31:09importance for the Europeans to trade, trade and investment.

31:14I've been asking the German business people to formulate their positioning, their expectation

31:20to any future American administration, either Republican or Democrats, before last summer,

31:29in order to take an offensive position to make clear what we want from the U.S.

31:36No, I failed.

31:38I failed.

31:39The Germans were not ready to do it, nor the French, by the way.

31:44And I'm not astonished at all that the Americans under these conditions act on their own.

31:53There are the Europeans who have taken contact with now Trump, even before, respecting his

32:00style to some extent, and making him clear what the Europeans want and what's for us

32:06the minimum in such an alliance.

32:10And therefore, well, it's regrettable, but it's the situation as it is now.

32:18I'm a bit, let's say, astonished by those in Europe who wake up now saying it's a catastrophe.

32:26For me, it was clear from the beginning that the Americans would expect from the Europeans

32:32to finance at least the reconstruction of Ukraine once their peace talks are successful.

32:40No more.

32:41But it is a real place at the same level with the Americans.

32:45I don't see this either with Biden or now with Trump.

32:51But because it's, excuse me, Ambassador Bielisz, because this is bilateral, right, it's going

32:57over everyone's head.

32:59Does that, and that was a point made by Anastasia earlier, call into question the whole security

33:05architecture of Europe as it has stood since the end of World War II?

33:09Does it mean the end of the U.S. being reliably there come hell or high water for the Europeans?

33:17At his closing press conference, Pete Hegseth, the new U.S. Defense Secretary, said that

33:22of course the United States still believes in Article 5, where an attack against one

33:27is an attack against all, within NATO.

33:31But should Europeans believe him?

33:35To a limited extent, yes.

33:38To a limited extent?

33:40Yes.

33:41What do you mean by limited?

33:43Limited is what I call Article 5, a real military attack against any member state.

33:49And please read out Article 5.

33:52Article 5 is less constrained than Article 42.7 of the EU Treaty.

34:02One can choose his ways and means, let's say, to support the ally which is attacked.

34:11And therefore what we need is what I call the American nuclear umbrella, yes.

34:16But I think for me it's clear for some years, it has been clear for some years, that the

34:22Americans asked us to take over much more responsibility of our defense.

34:28And what's the answer of the Europeans?

34:30The Europeans will wake up, call us, up till now, let's say, a limited, let's say, result,

34:36extremely limited.

34:37It's not a real result in my eyes.

34:41Kerevan Dorjistani.

34:42I think that this is exactly what people like Vladimir Putin want to hear, because yes,

34:50I agree, Article 5 is not so clear cut.

34:53And the only reason why Article 5 has, in a way, worked, if you will, until now, is

34:59because there was no doubt about the Americans following through on Article 5, even though

35:05Article 5 is not clear cut.

35:08Once you start saying limited, maybe, we'll decide, whatever, once you put into doubt

35:15the question of whether or not Article 5 will hold, that's it.

35:21Part of Article 5's power is the belief that they are, it's deterrence.

35:26It's the belief that people and the countries that are involved in NATO will all react.

35:32If there is a doubt, then Article 5 doesn't really matter.

35:36And this belief is definitely now crushed by Pete Hexeth's words, because not only,

35:42and I agree with this, with Ambassador Bitole, that not only did he introduce the limits,

35:46he outlined the limits, by suggesting what Europe's role should be, to foot the bill

35:52for what?

35:53Because Europe is not invited to the negotiating table, but is expected to foot the bill for

35:57sending its own troops into Ukraine to then ensure whatever security guarantee Europe

36:02alone is to give by the American orders, but then Pete Hexeth introduces and outlines exactly

36:09the limits of Article 5, but when Europeans, at the American bequest, send their troops

36:14into Ukraine, they cannot, under any circumstances, expect to be covered by Article 5.

36:19And so now we know when Article 5 will not be activated.

36:24It will not be activated when it is up to the Americans to send their troops to Europe,

36:29because Pete Hexeth said that Americans will not send their troops to a European war theatre,

36:34which today is in Ukraine.

36:36I'm sorry to announce that.

36:37And the second thing he said is that Europe is no longer a security priority for the US.

36:43That was the really important message that was not so clearly sounded, or not believed,

36:48it was clearly sounded by the Trump then future administration during the election campaign,

36:53but it wasn't believed at all in Europe.

36:56Now today, yesterday, it was sounded super clearly, and that means that not only Ukraine

37:02is in trouble, that is the whole message about the future of NATO.

37:06And to test this, the only thing Putin now has to do is to cross the border into a state

37:12of his choice, be it Finland, be it Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, or Poland, or whatever

37:18other country he chooses to cross into.

37:21Because today he doesn't even need to introduce tanks into Amash territory, enough is to send

37:25a swarm of drones, actually.

37:29Well that's also part of it already, that we have what's called so-called hybrid warfare,

37:34but is it the end of Article 5 as we know it?

37:37That grain of doubt, as has been outlined by Kerevan and Anastasia, Ambassador to Cligny-Asti,

37:43does it mean the end of NATO as we know it?

37:45No, I don't think so, I don't think so.

37:49Everybody knows, de Gaulle said, that big states have no friends, only interests.

37:55So at the present moment, it's true that Ukraine is not a vital interest for America.

38:05As an independent state, yes, OK, Donbass, not at all.

38:11Article 5, it's important because the US is a nuclear power, and you can accept a certain

38:18level of doubt, because no country can risk a nuclear war.

38:28And so I think Article 5 is still effective, even if the commitment of America is not so

38:35strong as before.

38:36Why, because of France and the UK, which are also nuclear powers?

38:41There is a nuclear risk.

38:42If you invade, for instance, Estonia, which is a scenario which could be possible.

38:50You claim that you need to go into Kaliningrad, for instance?

38:54Kaliningrad is Russia, as far as I know.

38:57No, but I mean, if the Russians say that Kaliningrad is under threat, is that where the problem

39:02may arise?

39:03Yes, the problem.

39:05If there's a weakening, too much a weakening of NATO, of everything, it's true that the

39:12Baltic state is a temptation for Russia, especially if there is a blockade of the Finland Gulf.

39:21So there's a risk there, but a small risk, because I think Article 5 still plays a role

39:29because the US is a huge nuclear power.

39:33A small risk, Ketavan Gorjastani, of Article 5 being tested?

39:38Well, look, I think one of the things that is happening with this, and we'll see where

39:45this goes and what the actual peace process is and deal is in the end.

39:51But one of the worries, especially of the Europeans, is the emboldening of Vladimir

39:58Putin.

39:59I still hear to this day those who are saying, well, you know, Ukraine is specific because

40:07Russia, Ukraine, they have this history, as if he's going to be fine with 20% of Ukraine

40:15and he's going to stop there.

40:19All the Eastern European states know and have been telling the rest of NATO for years now,

40:26this is not going to stop unless we stop him.

40:31And I think that Vladimir Putin has said it himself very often about his grand vision

40:38of this grand Russia and he is not going to stop unless he is stopped.

40:43So will he test Article 5 in the next year?

40:48Maybe not, but gradually at some point he's going to run out of countries that are not

40:53in NATO and maybe at some point he's going to turn to countries in NATO and who knows,

40:59maybe in 10 years NATO is going to be stronger.

41:02Maybe in 10 years NATO is going to be weaker.

41:05And what happens then?

41:06What happens then?

41:07A quick final question, Anastasia Pachkina, and this goes beyond Ukraine.

41:11A US president who's coveting Greenland.

41:17And Panama and Canada.

41:20You make sense of it.

41:22I think that, again, to me the key performance that we are witnessing in this dog and pony

41:28show is the performance of incompetence.

41:31And I think when Ambassador Dignasty was just saying, quoting General de Gaulle, we have

41:37to all appreciate the simple fact that Donald Trump for sure doesn't know the name of General

41:44de Gaulle, doesn't know why so many streets are called General de Gaulle in France, if

41:48he ever noticed that name, and neither does Pete Hexeth.

41:51And for sure we can be 100% certain that neither of them has ever read any line that

41:56General de Gaulle has ever written, unless he's written it on Twitter.

42:00And that is a core of a problem, because that also goes for the desire to read or understand

42:06Article 5, any article of the European Treaty, and any article of anything written at all.

42:12This is not a reading audience that we are facing now.

42:15And this is not a reading audience on the political will of which is going to depend

42:20all of that nuclear deterrence, because nuclear deterrence is not based on an automatic line

42:25written in Article 5 or any other article.

42:28It's only and solely based on the political will of a leader of a country, there are several,

42:33which owns a nuclear weapon.

42:35And that political will today in the U.S. is on their back, is resting on the backs

42:40of the leaders who are prone to read no more than 120 signed messages on eeks.

42:47This is the tragedy.

42:49On that happy note, we'll have to leave it there.

42:51Anastasia Czapochkina, I want to thank you.

42:53I want to thank as well Kerevan Gordzisztani, Jean de Grignasti, Joachim Biderlich for being

42:58with us from Normandy.

43:00Thank you for being with us here on the France 24.

Trump's call: Does direct overture to Putin betray Ukraine?

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