00:00The most awaited event of 2025, Budget 2025 is on February 1st.
00:12Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the budget in the parliament.
00:16From CAPEX to spending to income tax, investors are anxiously waiting for some kind of good
00:23news.
00:24Market has been very cautious.
00:26Hello and welcome.
00:27My name is Shruti Sarkar and you are watching GoodReturns.
00:31Future-focused Budget 2025, in this episode, we are joined by Rahul Ghosh, CEO of Hedge.in.
00:38Hello Rahul.
00:39Hi, thank you for having me.
00:43Rahul, I'll go straight to the point.
00:47What is your overall expectations from the budget?
00:53So at the outset, let me tell you that every year we have so much of expectations from
00:58the budget.
00:59But unfortunately, it is more or less status quo that happens every year, barring few sectors.
01:05And I don't expect this year to be any different.
01:08The same pushes in terms of infrastructure, same push with respect to renewal energy,
01:13which was the flavor of last year as well, will continue this year.
01:17I also expect some kind of benefit to also come to electric vehicles, although renewable
01:23energy is a little broad.
01:25Electric vehicles, I expect some kind of benefits to come to.
01:29And FMCG as a sector, I believe, can benefit with respect to the current budget.
01:36But looking at the current market trajectory, no matter any populist measures that come
01:41about, unfortunately, every data pattern or indicator suggests that it won't be well
01:47received, unfortunately.
01:48Hopefully, I'm wrong on this one.
01:50Right.
01:51Moving on to markets, market has been very volatile.
01:56What is your expectations, overall expectations on the market before the budget on the day?
02:03What will be the support resistance of Sensex and Nifty on Feb 1st?
02:07As we all know, the market is going to be open on Feb 1st.
02:10So currently markets, as we speak, is trading somewhere around 23, 100, 23, 150 levels.
02:17And if you look at open interest data, which is a very popular data, people of India or
02:21people of multiple geographies look at, he's saying that the 23,000 is going to be a support
02:27owing to put writing happening over there.
02:29I come from a contrarian view.
02:31I don't expect 23,000 to be a support.
02:35On the contrary, if you see markets below 22, 900, there will be a far big slurry of
02:42investors which will get trapped, which will lead markets to another 500 points down.
02:47I expect the pause to not come at 23,000, but to come between 22, 300 and 23, 500.
02:54That is the level where there is an area of demand and I expect markets to pause there.
02:59Now, the unfortunate thing is if markets don't pause over there, that is if this band of
03:0522, 300 to 22, 500 is taken out, it's a 1400 point free fall to 21,000.
03:12So on the downside, we don't expect 23,000 to hold out.
03:16We expect another 500 point slide.
03:19When will this view get negated?
03:21Now this view will only get negated if there are two positive closings above 24,000, which
03:29is quite a way on the upside because it's almost 8, 900 points on the upside.
03:33If you see a bounce back to 23, 500 or 23, 600, one shouldn't get very excited.
03:43Why one more hypothesis paves way for what I'm saying is, if you look at texture, 2-3
03:49days markets are going up and one single day 300 points markets are falling.
03:53So saw point or 100 points, it's going up 1-2-3 days and on a single day, it takes it
03:58out with a single candle.
04:00So the texture broadly is very weak because every little inch you're trying to move up,
04:05there are heavy battle of sellers and of course, everybody knows how the FIIs are relentlessly
04:11selling as well.
04:12So unless we have two positive closings, that is strong candles over 24,000, we would continue
04:19to be in this downtrend.
04:20Got it.
04:21A follow up question on that, what are the top sectors, top stops to watch just before
04:28the budget?
04:30So before budget normally has a very same plateau like you will see railway stocks bouncing
04:37before the budget.
04:38And this will happen time and again, if you check any budget, railway stocks start buzzing
04:43towards before budget.
04:44But as a whole on 2025, one name which most of your viewers might get surprised me saying,
04:51I expect 2025 to be the year of HDFC Bank.
04:55I know the charts don't suggest so.
04:57I know I'll have five people fundamentally telling no, how is this possible?
05:02But four years of underperformance, I expect 2025 to outweigh and I expect HDFC Bank to
05:10do well.
05:11I also expect the FMCG sector like Hindustan Unilever and the likes of them to do well.
05:17In terms of the new age companies, I expect Zomato to do well.
05:20In fact, around 200 levels could be an attractive buy for Zomato as well.
05:27Purely from budget, again, EV, a sector that is very fastly developing.
05:33And because the intervention in batteries is scaling rapidly all over the world.
05:39Why was there so much scarcity around EV?
05:41Even today, if you notice, there is still a little resistance towards EV.
05:46And primarily that happens because people say that the battery lasts for four hours
05:50or five hours or six hours or 10 hours.
05:53It's a headache to charge.
05:54Now, because the runway for the battery is now moving out to be 1000 kilometers, moving
06:00out to be two weeks and three weeks, because battery manufacturers are springing up with
06:06new technology, EV's time, I would say is now and not in the last two years.
06:12People have been talking about it for two years, but I'm again a contrarian and I would
06:16say the next two, three years is what is going to do well for the EV segment, which is also
06:21something that I expect budgets to do well, give some leeway to that sector as well.
06:27Right.
06:28Right.
06:29Interesting.
06:30Very interesting.
06:31Before I let you go, Rahul, one more question.
06:34Do you expect any relief in taxation of capital gains that is expected in the budget?
06:40I mean, and if that happens, how will it impact investors?
06:46I highly doubt something like that would come.
06:48But if it does, it would definitely be a very, very positive supplies.
06:53And if you notice, I've used the word very two times.
06:57I would say that the trajectory of how the government has moved towards taxation, they
07:02went from zero to 10, they went from 10 to 12 and a half, 12 and a half to 15 for short
07:07term and so on and so forth.
07:09So the trajectory once on the upward has already been accepted by the people.
07:14Now, if there was a lot of backlash, they should have done it then and there.
07:19But now that it is an accepted norm and government or the exchequer is getting revenue out of
07:24it, which is an acceptable norm already for a year now, I highly doubt they would do away
07:30with it.
07:31I think there are some talks on to give a small on the way they calculate capital gains.
07:37I think that is doing the rounds.
07:39But that also I would be surprised if that comes about.
07:43In fact, I expect going forward in the next two, three years, capital gains to be at 15
07:48and 20% with respect to short and long equity minimum, I'm saying on the minimum side.
07:56So I don't expect that to happen really.
07:58Now, we spoke about markets, we spoke about tax, capital gains.
08:03I have one last question to ask you.
08:08Do you think, do you really think that we are heading towards Mixed Bharat and we can
08:14achieve it by 2047?
08:17I don't see any reason why not.
08:21If your viewers and all of you just track news, you will see there are so many companies
08:26that are porting back to India, their head offices, which are in, let's say a Singapore
08:31or the US, they're all coming back to India.
08:34And Modiji, our Prime Minister, even in an interview just recently said, and with great
08:42conviction, I must say that all those people who are not going to be in India are bachtane
08:47wale hain.
08:48So that kind of conviction, looking at the trajectory of what things are happening, looking
08:52at the growth of earnings over the years, if you see the growth of earnings over the
08:56years has also been quite, if I can use the word encouraging of that sorts.
09:02And India has always been in the land of innovation.
09:05So I don't foresee any challenges.
09:08In fact, I will stick my neck out and say that 2025 might not be a great year for the
09:12Nifty, but in let's say 2027, that is three calendar years from now, you should see Nifty
09:19at at least 70 to 80% higher than where we are right now.
09:24So about 40,000 levels.
09:26And this is me being conservative, by the way.
09:29Right, right.
09:30Very interesting insights Rahul.
09:33Thank you so much for joining us.
09:35That was Rahul Goswami, CEO Hedge.in.
09:38Thank you for watching and thank you for joining us Rahul again.
09:42Pleasure.
09:43Thank you so much.
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