00:00In the last few weeks, we have seen a lot of volatility in Nifty and Sensex.
00:05But what's next? Will Sensex make a new record in the next year, 2025?
00:12Hello and welcome. My name is Shruti Sarkar and you are watching GoodReturns.
00:15And today we have with us, Trivesh D, CEO of TradeGenie. Welcome, Trivesh.
00:21Thank you, Shruti. What a pleasure being here.
00:23So, my first question to you is, we have seen a lot of volatility in Nifty and Sensex in the last few months.
00:38And now the question is, what is your focus for Nifty and Sensex in the coming year, 2025?
00:47For the first time, I think the market in the last five years has seen a drawdown.
00:52And for such a long time, we have seen markets going down, which we have not seen after COVID at all.
00:59So, it's a good realization for everyone that markets don't go only one way.
01:05There is also a downside and there is an upside.
01:08So, it's a very healthy correction that has happened in the market.
01:11We expect this correction going forward to remain for some more time.
01:16But I think overall, for a 2025 outlook, I think we are extremely bullish, very positive about the markets.
01:24We are expecting earnings to pick up. Quarter 2 was a little slow, but we expect quarter 3, quarter 4 to do much better.
01:32And I think the outlook for 2025 remains extremely positive and optimistic.
01:37And we believe that markets are going to bounce back from the current levels.
01:42They are at a very good support.
01:43But now we feel that the market is going to go up from here.
01:48So, I think it's going to do well.
01:50Second thing, which is the broader point is on how the global factors are affecting India,
01:56whether it is wars or it is high interest rates in other countries.
02:00I think those are affecting India with the US coming into the picture with the new president.
02:05Those policies are also impacting.
02:07So, I think those are also currently getting factored into the current markets.
02:11And they'll all take into consideration and do well in the coming few months.
02:28So, I think SMEs and IPOs have suddenly picked up interest.
02:33Everyone's eyes are on them.
02:35We have seen some mega listings even today.
02:38Some of the IPOs that have gone live today, they have seen a 60 and 40% listing day gains already.
02:45So, everyone's eyes are on the IPO.
02:47And it is agnostic of the sector.
02:49It is not a sector.
02:51But generally, SMEs' interest in people has increased a lot.
02:54The risk is also extremely high.
02:56But the reward also people feel is going to be extremely high.
03:01But at the current level, I think the mid-cap stocks are almost trading at 80 to 90 PE.
03:07Which is, from a finance background, I think it is extremely overvalued.
03:12So, for me, those sectors are something currently not to be looked at.
03:17There are certain stocks in that which are doing fairly okay.
03:20But generally, the sector, mid-cap as a sector, I think has extremely picked up its valuations.
03:27So, that is something that needs a little more rethinking.
03:31Blue-chip companies, the large caps are at a very good valuation of 21, 22, 25, 28, 30 PE.
03:39Which is in a very, very good state.
03:41Because earnings have to also now start expanding.
03:44Then the EPS also grows.
03:46And there is price expansion that happens in the market.
03:48So, mid-caps is something that is, for us, a little overvalued.
03:53The large caps seem to be fairly priced.
03:56But in terms of sector-specific, I think everyone's eyes are obviously on EV.
04:01Because everyone is looking at the future.
04:04Saying, what happens to combustion engines?
04:06What happens to diesel and petrol?
04:09And all the manufacturers of automobiles are saying by 2030,
04:12we have to go with this percentage in EV or go with full EV.
04:16The Middle East and South East countries have also started exploring other opportunities
04:21other than oil and gas.
04:22Because they have realized that this may not be a long-term play.
04:25So, EV is one sector that we are extremely bullish on.
04:27Renewable energies and the space around renewable energy is something that we are extremely bullish on.
04:33There are a lot of stocks that have got listed recently,
04:36which are doing well in the renewable energy side.
04:38So, I think that is something we are very bullish on.
04:41And the third, which is the consumption stories, is pharmaceuticals.
04:45Pharmaceuticals and healthcare as a sector, I think has not performed well the last two years.
04:52But it's time now for it to start to get the attention of people.
04:57And a lot of mutual fund participation also we see in the healthcare sector now.
05:01So, I think healthcare is something that is going to pick up steam in the coming few weeks, few months,
05:06and maybe even few quarters.
05:08That was very insightful, Trivesh.
05:10There is a slightly different kind of question.
05:12There are a lot of followers on our social media.
05:15There are GNZ followers.
05:17And some of them have recently joined the office.
05:19Some of them are in school colleges.
05:21Not in school, but in colleges.
05:23There are housewives.
05:25Which is a very small amount for a housewife.
05:31Sometimes it's 5000 or 10,000.
05:33So, what are your recommendations on who should invest in this?
05:38First, let me tell you what you should not do.
05:41F&O is to be avoided.
05:43If you are starting off your investment journey,
05:46F&O is not the place to be.
05:48Mutual fund is a great place to start.
05:51People should see mutual funds on how to pick up good mutual funds
05:57which start off with a very small SIP as well.
05:59Even 100, 200, 500, 1000 rupees SIP mutual funds are there.
06:04So, people, especially the first timers in the market,
06:09a mutual fund is an excellent opportunity.
06:12There are a lot of ETFs also which are available
06:15which help people invest smaller chunks of money into the markets directly.
06:20Direct stocks is not something that I would recommend if you are a first timer
06:25because it requires a lot of time, effort, dedication in terms of learning
06:30and updating yourself on stocks and their businesses.
06:33So, mutual funds and ETFs are definitely the place to be.
06:37The other thing is that they should also, first and foremost,
06:40start looking at savings.
06:42Because while we all talk about investment,
06:45you should also have a small amount of liquid cash available with you
06:49at any given point of time.
06:50And I think that's a very important thing for Gen Z,
06:53especially the so-called finfluencers are selling dreams
06:58that you can become rich overnight.
07:00Money doubles in 10 days, etc.
07:02Those are all not realistic, Shruti.
07:04We have been in this market far too long to realize those are not achievable.
07:08So, let's have a very, very conservative approach towards this.
07:12Have a very, very stable but secure approach to this
07:16saying that we will earn that 10%, 12%, 15% and do well with our money.
07:21And start small with mutual funds, start with smaller SIPs
07:25and gradually increase them.
07:27Very nice, Trivesh.
07:29I think this is a very important and serious topic
07:33that probably we should discuss more.
07:35You know, quick success, quick money, there's always a bigger risk.
07:39And there are a lot of finfluencers,
07:42our regulators are also looking into this.
07:46But this should probably be the theme of 2025, you know,
07:50that how to avoid wrong, misleading statements.
07:55I couldn't agree more with you, Shruti, on that.
07:58I think we are extremely, extremely scared of this entire piece
08:04because people get influenced very quickly.
08:07It's an unfortunate and an unfortunate thing that it happens.
08:12But when it comes to money matters, you need to do your own research.
08:16You cannot depend on somebody else saying do this, do that.
08:20Because it's finally your hard-earned money that is going to go,
08:23if it's going to go, it's not the influencer's money.
08:25So I think this cross-selling and mis-selling that's happening,
08:28like you rightly said, needs to stop.
08:30Regulators have been extremely active on this front,
08:33brought in a lot of regulations recently.
08:35It impacts the brokers and us as revenue.
08:38For Tradegenie, obviously, it's not a good thing business-wise.
08:41But as an investor myself in the market,
08:43I think it's very important that the regulator takes care of this piece
08:48on the influencers and how you can regulate them.
08:51And to ensure that people don't lose their money
08:53in this get-rich-quick scheme.
08:56Before I let you go, one last question.
08:59Apart from equities, what are the other asset classes
09:02you'd recommend where we can invest?
09:04Apart from equities, so to a broker, I think equities is our bread and butter.
09:09Obviously, equities is an important piece in any portfolio.
09:12But on a personal front, I think real estate
09:16and fractional real estate in that specifically,
09:19I think is picking up really well.
09:21And everybody can start early.
09:23Like how there is an SIP in stocks,
09:26where you do smaller portions into a larger fund house.
09:30There is an entire concept of satirization in real estate
09:34where you can own fractional ownership of real estate.
09:36I think that's a very important asset class
09:39which a lot of people miss because real estate is scary.
09:43People think that so much documentation,
09:46so much is to be done,
09:49who will do, who will take care of the property,
09:51your physical asset.
09:52But I think these REITs that are coming,
09:55the small and medium REITs,
09:56I think it's a very good play that people should look at.
09:59I think the first SM REIT got listed a week or maybe 10 days back.
10:03So that's a great opportunity.
10:05Second is obviously both physical and digital gold.
10:09I think people don't realize that when markets aren't doing well,
10:14typically gold is an inversely proportional asset.
10:18So while this is not health-proof,
10:21maybe after COVID things have changed,
10:23but historically gold and markets used to be inversely proportional.
10:26And for that gold is a great hedge to always hold on to.
10:30Whether physical, you want to do SGBs,
10:32you want to do ETFs,
10:34you want to do digital gold in whatever form.
10:36But gold is always a nice asset to hold on to.
10:40So for me, I think it's real estate and gold,
10:43especially fractional real estate is an excellent piece to continue to hold, Shruti.
10:48Perfect. Great.
10:49Thank you so much, Divesh, for joining us today.
10:52Thank you viewers for watching.
10:54Thank you, Shruti. Thank you.
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