Analyzing Hurts vs. Mahomes Super Bowl Player Props

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00:00Let's get into the player props, because there's so much going on for all of this.

00:07Hertz, and this is my, like, generally first look at these.

00:10I opened it up and looked at them, but not really given a whole thought to it.

00:14So Mahomes, 251.5 passing.

00:16Hertz is 210.

00:17They're both at 1.5 passing touchdowns.

00:19Hertz is plus 162 to the over.

00:21Mahomes is minus 164 to the over.

00:24Most passing yards in the game, of course, minus 244.

00:28For Mahomes, let's give a check over on DK to see if there's a big discrepancy.

00:34Passing touchdowns, passing yards, roughly the same.

00:38Yards, Mahomes is just a touch higher, 256.5, and Hertz is 213.

00:43They're just a bit higher over on DK.

00:46It's interesting to note that at least DK has the passing attempts, and they also have

00:51interceptions up.

00:52Hertz is plus 134 for interception.

00:53Mahomes is minus 107 for an interception.

00:57The completions and passing attempts market, of course, some of my favorites when it comes

01:01to the NFL.

01:02Passing attempts, Mahomes is 35.5, Hertz is 26.5.

01:07Completions, it's 24.5 and 18.5 for Hertz.

01:11The Hertz 18.5 over on completions is a bit interesting, and then getting Mahomes also

01:18over 24.5 completions is a spot that I may look.

01:23It's 24.5.

01:24It is plus 104.

01:25It's minus 129 on the under.

01:26Generally, I like to be early on props, as I've always talked about.

01:30Getting on lines early can be a massive, massive advantage, and getting some nice closing line

01:35value is huge.

01:36It's not to say like, oh, you bet a player at under 50, and his line moves to 47.5, 46.

01:42He's guaranteed to hit the under, but it's not like the market is moving in the right

01:45direction and you are ahead of the market.

01:47That is obviously always, always good to have, and hopefully that will be in your favor more

01:53times than not over the course of the long run.

01:55I don't mind a completion bet on Mahomes.

02:00Although I do think Kareem Hunt has been solid for the Chiefs in the backfield, rubber meets

02:07the road in the Super Bowl.

02:09It's time Mahomes needs to have the ball in his hands when it's all said and done.

02:12Seeing 18 of 26 today is obviously a very, very low numbers on both attempts and completions

02:20for him, as we saw generally last week, 16 and 25.

02:26But we also saw some pretty long, sustained drives from the Bills, and at times last week

02:30versus the Texans.

02:31Looking back throughout the regular season, when push came to shove, we saw the ball in

02:35Mahomes' hands.

02:36He ended the regular season again.

02:37Didn't play the last week of the season versus Denver, but 38-41, 38-37, 46-37, 33-42, 44-38

02:50passing attempts from Mahomes once we hit the end of October on.

02:56So he is generally hitting, what is this, one game, he's at 33.

03:02Every other game, he's at 37 or higher.

03:04So when we see a line hung of passing attempts at 35-1⁄2, again, when it's push comes to

03:11shove, it should be Mahomes passing the ball.

03:14So I do like the 35-1⁄2 on Mahomes' attempts, especially as the total has risen, you know,

03:21from 47, 48-1⁄2 up to 49.

03:24The market is expecting points that should mean more possessions, again, essentially

03:27just more bites at the apple for Mahomes.

03:29So it's not posted over on Shane Dooley, and I'm seeing 35-1⁄2 on Mahomes' passing attempts.

03:35So this is maybe the first spot that I'm going to jump in when it comes to the passing market.

03:40I really do like Mahomes' over 35-1⁄2 passing attempts.

03:44So we can look there, the completions are essentially correlated, in a sense, with it.

03:49He's going to be passing the ball more, he will complete the ball more, at least you

03:52would like to hope so, or think so, that he would be able to get there.

03:55But 35-1⁄2 passing attempts minus 104 on DK is the first spot that I'm looking when

04:01it comes to any of these Super Bowl props.

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