Analyzing NFL Quarterbacks' Touchdown Predictions & Props

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00:00All right, let's start off here.

00:02Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, to combine for six plus passing touchdowns

00:11at minus 120.

00:13George, let's dive into this one first.

00:16Think it through.

00:17Where are these, where are these from, Sam?

00:19DraftKings or AllFanDuel, sorry, okay, AllFanDuel here, FanDuel Sportsbook.

00:25So George, this is basically, you know, it's a good number here.

00:30Six plus patching, you've got three quarterbacks, 2-2-2 is fair, right?

00:35Lamar Jackson, Mahomes, and Goff.

00:37Can one of these guys throw for three?

00:39That's what we're looking for here, because I would say the odds of Jackson and Mahomes

00:44throwing one are very high.

00:47Two, based on the total in the Chiefs game, I'm not sure that this would happen.

00:52So you're kind of looking for Goff, George, right?

00:54Like this is, like Goff is probably the one that has to have three for this to go over.

00:57Is that fair?

00:59I think that's the one you're hoping for, yeah, because that's the game we expect the

01:02most points to be scored, right?

01:03That's the over-under 55 and a half last I checked.

01:06So that's the one we're expecting five touchdowns from Detroit, you know, at least four.

01:12So some people think, Dan Cable is not going to take the foot off the gas, right?

01:16He'll score 60 points in the game if he has to, or if he wants to, that sort of thing.

01:21My problem with this is, for all we know, it's going to be a Gibson-Montgomery-Rushenewitt

01:24touchdowns game.

01:25Almanzae Brown, there's the Michael Irvin that keeps going out of the one-yard line.

01:29All right, so that worries me a little bit.

01:31Mahomes, that Houston defense is good, all right?

01:36I think Kansas City can score three touchdowns, but, you know, Mahomes could run one in.

01:41It could be a little tricky there.

01:42All right, and then Lamar Jackson would get the brutally cold game tomorrow with 13 degrees.

01:46So I'm a little worried about this.

01:48That being said, I wouldn't take the under, you know, so six, six, they've got it right.

01:53The number's right, six.

01:54Right.

01:55You know, I think you need Goff to get the three.

01:57I think you need Goff to get the three to get this, because I think either Jackson or

02:00Mahomes are only going to get one.

02:01Okay, so let's, you know, that's a good graphic that we have here with Sam.

02:06So we can now just sub out.

02:09So we're subbing out Lamar Jackson for Jaden Daniels, subbing out Lamar Jackson in the

02:16second one for Jaden Daniels, and you can see the odds are a little bit more in your

02:22favor.

02:23I gotta tell you, I like this a little more than I like, yeah, I do.

02:27I like, because I could see Derrick Henry just, you know, taking the air out of the

02:32ball throughout the game.

02:33So I would, of those first two that we just showed, if you're doing something on FanDuel

02:38with these today, I like the second one more than the first.

02:41I'm with you.

02:42Once again, I think it's going to, most of us think it's going to be a high-scoring game

02:45Washington Detroit tomorrow.

02:47So that means Daniels, he can run them in, he can throw it in, and you can beat Detroit

02:51in their secondary, running against them is difficult.

02:54You can't beat them in their secondary, and we expect Washington to be trailing throughout

02:56the game.

02:57Or at least I expect it.

02:58I know Craig thinks they're going to win by four touchdowns, but I like that one much

03:02better than the first one.

03:03Actually, not even a little bit.

03:04I like it much better than the first one.

03:05I think Daniels is going to have a better game as far as touchdowns than Lamar Jackson.

03:08Jackson will do a lot of damage to the air, but I think both those teams tomorrow night

03:12in Buffalo, they both want to take the air out of the ball.

03:14All right, Allen, that's it.

03:15Allen and Cook versus Jackson and Henry, running the ball for both.

03:18It'll be tough to throw that ball in 13-degree weather.

03:21That ball is a rock, literally a rock when it's that cold.

03:24I agree.

03:25All right.

03:26So the next one is plus money because we've subbed out Goff and we put in Josh Allen,

03:31who generally is not going to throw as many touchdown passes in a game than Goff because

03:36he's going to run.

03:37So it's plus 140 with Josh Allen.

03:40And as we take a look even at the next one, let's keep it up there.

03:44We got Mahomes, Goff, and Daniels to give a little boost at a 7-plus touchdown mark

03:51at plus 190.

03:52I actually think, as we'll talk about the last one here, I'm getting way ahead of myself,

03:58but I don't love this one.

04:00I don't love the 7-plus at plus 190.

04:04It has nothing to do with the odds.

04:06You could have told me that this one is plus 120.

04:08I still don't love this one.

04:10No, because now you need that extra.

04:14Mahomes, I think, at best does two.

04:16Goff and Daniels, I could see doing three each.

04:19I really could here.

04:21That wouldn't really shock me at all here, but plus 190, I'm probably not getting enough

04:25there.

04:26I think I need another plus 250, I might go for it here.

04:30But you're asking a lot.

04:32There's a lot of ifs here.

04:33It's not because Goff couldn't just hand the ball to Gibbs and Montgomery gets a touchdown.

04:36He's back this week.

04:37You know Montgomery's scoring.

04:40I don't hate this.

04:41I'm trying to talk myself into this, but that seven is going to be rough here.

04:45I think it's Mahomes that's going to bust us.

04:47Yeah.

04:48Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jaylen Hurts combined for six-plus passing touchdowns, plus 200.

04:54I like this one more than I liked the one before.

04:56I don't know why they're devaluing Hurts so much here.

04:59Why?

05:00Because he hasn't been great the last couple of weeks?

05:01No problem with him.

05:04He's been terrible.

05:05I mean, not just he's not, just hasn't been good here.

05:08We got A.J. Brown reading Tolstoy on the sidelines there.

05:11So you know, it's passing touchdowns.

05:15So the tush-push ain't going to help us here.

05:16Yeah.

05:17So I think that's the issue there.

05:18He just hasn't looked all that great here.

05:20And once again, the weather tomorrow in Philly is iffy.

05:22All right.

05:23I'm just looking at now.

05:24I'm getting six inches of snow, it looks like, which means Philly's getting pretty much the

05:27same here.

05:28It might be coming down during the game.

05:29I don't know if it's going to come down heavy during the game.

05:31It just flurries.

05:32It'll just be beautiful TV and won't affect the players here.

05:35But if it's coming down hard, you know, it could be a problem here.

05:38And the way to beat the Rams, by the way, Barkley, I think Barkley's going to get it.

05:42He crossed with 255 yards the first time.

05:45He's getting the ball a lot tomorrow.

05:47All right.

05:48We're going to run through these real quick.

05:50These are a little bit more difficult.

05:51Any four of Gibbs, Henry, Barkley, Kyron Williams, and Nakua to each score one plus touchdown.

05:58Plus 300.

06:00You could see here, same thing with Gibbs, Henry, Barkley, Williams, and then A.J. Brown

06:06at plus 300.

06:07Gibbs, Henry, Barkley, Cook, Kelsey, one plus touchdown at 310.

06:14Then you have Gibbs, Henry, Barkley, Cook, and Nico Collins to each score one plus at

06:19plus 340.

06:20And then Gibbs, Henry, Cook, Amon, Ross, St. Brown.

06:23I mean, I don't know, man.

06:24Like George, respectfully to FanDuel, this feels like a parlay, you know, this feels

06:29like a dart throw for all of these.

06:31You'd be guessing, I guess, which one would you guess that you would want more?

06:35I'm trying to find my favorite.

06:37Maybe I would throw the one at plus 340 with Nico Collins, because it does seem like he's

06:42always on.

06:43Yeah, he might be the one guy that scores there.

06:46They're all very similar.

06:47We've got a lot of the same guys in each one of them.

06:49One of them is going to hit, maybe two.

06:51I think I would take the best money with Nico as well here.

06:54I would take Nico to A.J. Brown.

06:56So yes, give me Nico here at plus 340.

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