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  • 1 year ago
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00:00Kareem hunts up at 45 and a half, you know, I'm gonna say the lead back for the Chiefs, at least
00:05has shown to be the lead back for the Chiefs in the postseason. Out-snapped, not out-snapped,
00:11out-carried Pacheco today, which is, you know, why I'm interested in Pacheco under rushing attempts,
00:17which is at six and a half minus 118. I just tweeted that out, spoke about it here. Pacheco's
00:21number is at 22 and a half for rushing yards. Eh, I don't have interest in that. There's a chance
00:26that he still goes under on his attempts and maybe goes under and over on that. He breaks off
00:31one or two carries for eight, 10 yards. He has two carries that get him close to 20,
00:35just gets an extra. I just don't expect him playing a large role in terms of volume of carries.
00:40The Hurts-Mahomes is the more interesting portion of the rushing. We know Saquon's gonna be up at
00:46114, 115 when it's all said and done, whatever it might be. Let me just check over on DK what
00:52Saquon is listed at for the sake of it. He's 117 over on DK. It's a little bit of a discrepancy
00:58there, but Jalen Hurts, 37 and a half, Pacheco-Mahomes 20 and a half when it comes to their
01:05rushing yards. You know, what have we seen from, I don't wanna say Hurts, but what have we seen
01:11from Mahomes in the postseason? 43 yards today, 11 carries today. That's interesting. That's
01:21interesting for Patrick Mahomes when his number is at six and a half rushing attempts and his
01:26number is sitting at 28 and a half for rushing yards. And we have consistently seen Mahomes
01:31scramble out of the backfield, whether it's pushed out of the backfield in terms of just
01:37the pressure getting to him and he has to scramble, or there's a couple of design run plays like that
01:41we saw today in fourth down, these scrambles out to the flat. So Mahomes at 28 and a half,
01:47he's at 28 and a half yards on both DK and Feindel. Slightly different shoes,
01:52minus 114 to the over on Feindel. It's minus 108 over on DK. The attempts is minus 105
02:00for over six and a half rushing attempts over on DK. And it's plus 102 over on Feindel for over
02:08six and a half rushing attempts. That is interesting. Let's give a quick glance here at
02:13Mahomes over the past few seasons. Seven carries last week versus Houston, only 14 yards. 11 carries
02:21today versus Buffalo, 43 yards. Let's look back to last season real quickly. Nine in the Super
02:27Bowl, 66 yards. Six versus Baltimore, 15 yards. Six versus Buffalo, 19 yards. Only two versus
02:35Miami in the wildcard, but they were up that entire game. Two carries for 41 yards. Season
02:41before that versus Philly in the Super Bowl, six carries, 43, three for eight, three for eight.
02:48Seven carries. Okay. So he's getting to that, I'm going to say five, four, five, six range more
02:53often than he's getting to that seven, eight up to 11 as we saw today. So it's reasonable to say
02:59that six is a great number for him. And seeing a six with plus money on the over would be the
03:05only bet to make. If you see six and a half as we do on DK, six and a half with minus odds,
03:11minus one of six, that's not the bet to make. Six and a half with a little bit of plus money
03:16is an okay bet.
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