Explore the implications of Donald Trump's presidency on global geopolitics and economic dynamics with insights from Raymond Vickery, former US Assistant Secretary of Commerce, and Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, a leading foreign policy analyst. From US-India relations to the shifting global power balance, uncover the challenges and opportunities for nations in a changing world. Pankaj Mishra speaks to them.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello and welcome to this special broadcast on One India as the countdown to the all-important
00:11inauguration of President Trump comes closer.
00:14Both India and United States are watching the developments with a bated breath and not
00:19just these two countries, but also I would say the whole world.
00:22And to discuss the matters which are important and which will weigh heavy on everyone's mind,
00:28it's a pleasure to have Pramitpal Chaudhary, South Asia Analyst for Eurasia Group, and
00:33Raymond Vickery, former United States Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Trade Development
00:40and Senior Associate at Center for Strategic and International Studies.
00:44Gentlemen, thank you so much for taking time out for One India.
00:49Mr. Vickery, I would like to begin with you first.
00:52Given the scenario as of now, given the times that Donald Trump is coming into power, how
00:59do you perceive his approach to global trade?
01:03And do you think that his emphasis on America first could lead to protectionist policies
01:09and it could have its ramifications on others as well?
01:14Well, thanks very much for having me, Pankaj.
01:17It is indeed a big day tomorrow, and the U.S. and the world, as you say, are waited
01:24with bated breath to see which Donald Trump will emerge, because what he says is not always
01:33what happens.
01:34On the question of international trade, the most worrisome part about it is President-elect
01:44Trump's infatuation with tariffs.
01:48He seems to think that tariffs are a one-way advantage for the United States, that somehow
01:57the foreign exporter pays for tariffs and there's no impact on the U.S.
02:04Of course, we know from experience that that is exactly opposite to what happens.
02:12It is, in fact, a tax on the American consumer and has geopolitical implications as well.
02:21You can't expect to put tariffs just across the board, particularly on friends like India,
02:31and think there won't be any effect on the relationship.
02:36Retaliation, of course, is the first that one thinks about it, and it goes on from there.
02:45So it's very concerning.
02:47I suppose the only brighter spot in it is that in the past, we've been able to work
02:56around these kinds of tariffs.
03:01Tariffs in part to the Biden administration, the Trump tariffs, which were put on steel
03:07and aluminum in regard to India, in fact, did not materialize in the way in which Trump
03:17had envisaged them.
03:19And there are things which are in train now, particularly on the new and emerging technologies,
03:29the so-called ICET in the defense area.
03:33There are commitments in regard to how we would conduct our chip manufacturing initiatives,
03:43both in India and the U.S.
03:45So those are in train, and hopefully they provide some ballast which will make whatever
03:52Trump does not as bad as it may seem on the surface.
03:58Right.
03:59Pramit, you know, what we hear as now from our eminent guest also, for Donald Trump,
04:11you know, do you think, how do you conceive this?
04:14How do you see this, his unconventional leadership style?
04:19You know, could it influence U.S.-India ties?
04:22What is the transactional approach to diplomacy?
04:25Create opportunities or challenges for India in areas like, say, trade, defense, and technology
04:32cooperation?
04:33So, yes, Trump, as you've mentioned, has a very personalized style of diplomacy.
04:39A lot of it depends not just on the broad sort of his broad worldview, which some of
04:45which Vickrey has already described, but it's about how he perceives leaders, individuals
04:54in the government, even countries as a whole.
04:57So we know, for example, the admirer of Vladimir Putin.
05:01So that means not that he won't necessarily be tough on Russia, but he comes to thinking
05:07of Russia with the idea that the person in charge is somebody I can work with.
05:12We do know that he seems to like Modi.
05:15He has almost consistently praised Modi whenever he's spoken about it in the campaign during
05:23his first presidency.
05:25We know that his family, his inner circle, are positive about India, if only because
05:31we have more Trump Towers built and coming up in India than any other country in the
05:35world besides America.
05:37So they have invested in India, if you wish, in India.
05:43And then he happens to have a lot of, a remarkable number of Indian Americans in his inner circle,
05:49within his policy circle, and a lot of entrepreneurs, many of whom are of Indian origin, or many
05:56of whom see India as very much part of their worldview.
06:00So you put that all together, he's reasonably positive.
06:03He has been critical of India on only one issue, tariffs, and trade protectionism.
06:08He has also been critical of many other countries.
06:11He does not seem to have any territorial desires on India, like as he has with Canada, Panama,
06:17and Greenland.
06:18So on both fronts, I think we are in a good spot with him.
06:26What is important to realize is that what has happened in the Trump, first Trump administration,
06:32his team was perfectly normal, and his foreign policy team, whether it was Tillerson, Mattis,
06:38and so on, were very clear to the Indian side, look, just keep the president happy about
06:43India overall.
06:45And we will see that the policies that we work out bilaterally go through without any
06:50issues.
06:51And that's more or less what happened.
06:52And if you look at people like Mike Walz, Mark Rubio, that he's bringing into his foreign
06:58policy and national security team.
07:01If you look at their past record, their statements out of office, they have been extraordinarily
07:06positive about India, that India is exactly the kind of strategic partner and military
07:16partner that America wants.
07:18So on a whole host of fronts, so far, we have no reason to be very concerned.
07:23Right.
07:24Indeed.
07:25Raymond, I'll just quickly pick up from where Pramit has left.
07:31So in your opinion, and in your knowledge, how do you foresee US-India strategic relationship
07:37evolving from the present times, and particularly in terms of defense cooperation and counterbalancing
07:44China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region?
07:48Well, I think there's no question that the relationship between the US and India vis-a-vis
07:54China is going to continue to grow.
07:57China, after all, claims an entire Indian state, Arunachal Pradesh, as well as other
08:05portions of Indian territory.
08:09In the South China Sea, they are building up facilities which impede the free passage
08:17of shipping in the high seas.
08:23So we have a very common interest in that regard.
08:28I note, for example, on the issue of TikTok, India already banned TikTok, and without really
08:38any terrible, deleterious kinds of consequences.
08:44India has shown, in my view, the way on that.
08:49Trump, on the other hand, feels that TikTok would be of benefit to him politically, and
08:58therefore he's diverging from his original stance on it.
09:03And therein, it seems to me, lies the problem.
09:08The problem with the Trump foreign policy vis-a-vis India is that it is not just America
09:19first, and it's really Trump first, and first, last, and only.
09:24And if he sees some advantage to him in terms of, for example, his quest for a Nobel Peace
09:33Prize vis-a-vis China, it's not very likely that he's going to say, well, international
09:41rules-based considerations and considerations of the UN Charter are going to keep me doing
09:49whatever I think is appropriate.
09:53So I think that's a real difficulty.
09:56Another difficulty, of course, is what happens with international trade organizations, the
10:03WTO, for example, has been of benefit to India in terms of tariffs and working these things
10:14through.
10:15The WTO will play virtually no role, in my view, as will many other international organizations.
10:23And of course, we have the whole existential question of climate change and what happens
10:32there.
10:34The United States needs to work with India, but it also needs to work with China.
10:42So how is he going to square that circle with his stated beliefs that China is an aggressive
10:56country operating outside the usual norms?
11:00Right.
11:01Absolutely.
11:02In fact, Donald Trump's new friend, I would say, considering the string of events that
11:10have happened, Elon Musk today tweeted saying that if Twitter is banned in China, then it's
11:16only justified that TikTok is banned in the U.S., at least TikTok situation there.
11:22From it, still staying back at home, Trump's presidency has been marked by a focus on recalibrating
11:31alliances and a more assertive stance against China.
11:34We have seen that before also with the COVID times, with the tariff issues.
11:39How do you see this impacting India's foreign policy strategies, especially in the context
11:46of the Quad that you mentioned and also the Indo-Pacific?
11:51So the team that he's put together are largely China hawks.
11:55Their people are extremely clear or public in their view.
12:01China represents America's primary strategic rival, a position that I would say India shares.
12:12At the heart of the Quad, and it's important to understand what the Quad is about, is a
12:17belief among the four governments that are involved that China's real game is China does
12:24not seek military confrontation.
12:27It doesn't believe that that's the sensible way to still be wary of getting involved in
12:32a fight with all four or even with the United States by itself.
12:39They believe that the heart of their future dominance, if you wish, is being the number
12:46one, should we say, leader in strategic technologies, whether it's quantum computing, AI, green
12:52hydrogen, pharmaceuticals, that if they do so, if they are the number one or they are
12:57the control of supply chains for these, they will inevitably be, all the countries of the
13:02world will have to come to them.
13:05So therefore, there is no need to necessarily build up military capacity, though they are
13:09doing that as well, but you really need to do is be building, being the sort of the superpower
13:15in technology of future technologies of the world.
13:19The Quad is basically, I would say, a sort of multilateral response to that.
13:24If you look at the roughly 30 working groups in the Quad, 26 of them, I think, are technology.
13:31Trump raised the Quad, he resurrected it in many ways when he was president, Biden took
13:37it further to a summit level.
13:40And now the question we'll have to see is what does Trump's plan for the Quad in the
13:45next four years?
13:46How far is he prepared to go with that?
13:49And I think the problem that we will face is that if you saw what Biden had announced,
13:53for example, at the bilateral at Wilmington, Delaware, was that America would seek safe
14:00and secure supply chains, which would be defined as basically supply chains with no Chinese
14:05control or inputs in pharmaceutical, green technology and semiconductors, that they would
14:14work to build up Indian capacities in defense.
14:18And if you go back further to an earlier summit, that they would integrate their supply chains
14:22in these areas with India and other areas.
14:26That required, however, that some of the manufacturing, a lot of it would have to be done in India,
14:33that it would be India's capacities that we built up, it would be American money or contracts
14:38that would help build that up.
14:40If you were sort of small Marshall plan for Indian technological capacity.
14:45Now Trump is an America first person, and I think his instinct would be why aren't we
14:49manufacturing these in America?
14:53And I think we saw our foreign minister, Dr. Jaishankar recently in Australia saying, we
14:58must brace ourselves for an America that while strategically aligned to India, is a little
15:03less generous than the Trump and the Biden administration was.
15:08So we'll have to see how far, what Biden had developed or placed on the table, how
15:15much of that will survive or will it have to be modified, if you wish, the next three,
15:20four years.
15:22I'll take one last question from both of you.
15:27Raymond, this is the second time that President Trump is assuming the office at the Oval Office.
15:35From his previous presidency to this presidency, what a couple of pointers or would you suggest
15:42him that he should or should not do in this current presidency?
15:47Well, I think that in regard to US-India relations, he has to modify this transactional approach.
15:59This idea that I'm going to get something for me out of every little thing that happens.
16:08That is not the way to build this relationship.
16:13The common strategic, economic, cultural, and indeed values interest of the two nations
16:23go beyond making a deal on every particular thing which comes along.
16:30So I think that he needs to change that approach.
16:35He needs to learn something more about the capabilities in India in regard to technology,
16:43in regard to space, for example.
16:46And he needs to have this broader view that indeed will build the relationship rather
16:54than send it into one step forward, a step back, and uncertainty on both sides.
17:05Right.
17:06Absolutely.
17:07Raymond, I'd like to know from Pramit that there's a huge diaspora, the Indian diaspora
17:15who lives there also forms a very significant part of the economy and the electorate.
17:21The voter also, Pramit, your take on their future aspirations, I would say.
17:27How do you view the Indian diaspora and its existence in the Trump era?
17:35Once again, I would say H-1B visas, spouses, right to work or not, lots of things are still
17:44there on the cards for the Indian diaspora on the whole there.
17:48So the Indian diaspora in America, it's not the largest diaspora we have overseas.
17:52It actually has citizenship in the country that they live in and the fastest growing.
17:57It continues to grow.
17:58It has not checked.
17:59That growth has not been really affected by any presidential policies in America.
18:05And it's about, it traditionally votes about two-thirds Democrat and one-third Republican,
18:12but its money is often split 50-50 because wealthier Indian Americans tend to vote Republican.
18:19And in this election, if I'm correct, I'd have to check the numbers, but I think we saw a 60-40
18:24split in which a little bit more shift towards Biden, towards Trump.
18:31But I think, as you mentioned, a number of issues for them.
18:34One is the India relationship.
18:35I think that's going to be a major source of concern.
18:39Immigration will be an issue.
18:42Students, I don't think, will be affected.
18:43America is quite open on that front.
18:45And in fact, as Chinese students are increasingly leaving or not showing up in the United States,
18:51Indians are now, if I'm correct, the number one or number two foreign student population
18:56in the country and rising rapidly to fill that vacuum of Chinese students not showing up.
19:03H-1B is a bit more complicated.
19:05If you look at Trump's personal statements, if you wish, there's the political Trump who's
19:13basically ranted against migrants, immigrants, but largely over illegal migration.
19:19That is the touchstone of the Republican position.
19:22We have no problems with migration, but they must come through legal channels.
19:26The illegal migration is largely coming out of Central America.
19:29There are about 400,000 Indians who came by that path,
19:33but the vast bulk of them, several million, have come from Latin America.
19:38So that is the primary political focus of the Republicans and of Trump.
19:43The deportation policy that he's almost certain to announce
19:47tomorrow, for example, will be aimed at this group.
19:51The question about legal migration, he has gone on and off saying,
19:55I support legal migration.
19:56I don't have a problem.
19:58He's also said students who graduate in America legally should be allowed to stay and get
20:03citizenship.
20:05Even in his first administration, he opposed no restrictions on H-1Bs until the last year
20:10when he was campaigning, and it became an issue.
20:14The problem that H-1B has now in America, I would argue, that it has become contaminated,
20:20if you wish.
20:21It's being gamed by body shopping firms.
20:26These are not the big ones, TCS.
20:28These are small companies that use this to some degree for illegal migration, to help
20:33migrants rather than produce highly skilled workers.
20:37And maybe as much as 50% of those visas are now coming through this process,
20:42through these structures.
20:44So I think when Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy fought with various other Republicans about this
20:51policy, Trump's response was, H-1Bs are fine, but the system has to be reformed.
20:57I think that's where you're going to see the focus of his policy, that we have to make it
21:03genuinely about highly skilled workers.
21:05The debate about the wives and the path to citizenship, unfortunately, is being completely
21:11blank.
21:12There's nobody talking about that, given the strong emotions on immigration right now.
21:19But the Indian government, I don't think, has any problems with blocking illegal migrants.
21:24That's simply not something it would support anyway.
21:29And cleaning up the H-1B visa, if that was a particular system, would again not be a
21:34matter of concern, especially if it were to be combined, and we'll see whether Trump has
21:39that vision, with something about spouses or an easier path to citizenship.
21:44That combination would be perfect for India and Indian Americans.
21:49Right.
21:50Thank you so much, Raymond.
21:51Thank you for speaking to us.
21:54And to both of you, I would say that not just this panel, but also the world, as we discussed,
22:00is watching with bated breath.
22:01I believe in less than 24 hours, Raymond Capitole will be welcoming the 47th President of the
22:07United States.
22:09All the very best to you, your team, your family members, and your countrymen.
22:12Pramit, thank you so much.
22:13Pleasure to have you here.
22:14We hope to connect with you once again tomorrow.
22:17Thank you so much.
22:21Head on to OneIndia.com for more updates.
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