Analisis Saham PANI, BLES, TOTL

IDXchannel

"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Jumat (10/01/2025) dengan Tema Analisis Saham PANI, BLES, TOTL".

Transcript

00:00Thank you for joining us, Mr. Mirsa, and now I'd like to continue our discussion with Mr. Karel.

00:10There are a few things I'd like to share with you regarding the stock options.

00:14This is the first time I've had the chance to witness it on television, Mr. Mirsa.

00:19After that, we'll discuss the questions I've asked Mr. Karel.

00:24We'll discuss the analysis of the stock options, with good recommendations.

00:28There are 12 good recommendations from TLTL.

00:34Let's continue our discussion with Mr. Karel.

00:37Mr. Karel, if we continue our discussion on the balance sentiment,

00:42this is also something that the market players should pay attention to.

00:48Don't get carried away by FOMO.

00:50There are other issues that should be considered.

01:00What is this sector actually sensitive to, Mr. Karel?

01:05Okay, if we're talking about properties, of course,

01:09the most important thing is the interest rate in Indonesia.

01:14Of course, if the interest rate is high or not decreasing,

01:20it will weaken the purchasing power of the community.

01:23Of course, it will have a direct impact on the property sector.

01:27But in fact, CBDK itself,

01:30about 80% is upper income and uses installment payments.

01:38Then 5% to 10% is hard cash.

01:42Indeed, CBDK is not so affected by the interest rate.

01:48But of course, the 10% portion of installment payments,

01:52it can also be negative if the interest rate does not go up or down,

01:59or there is an increase like that.

02:01So, this is also something that is considered by investors.

02:04It's related to the level of the flower tribe, its own influence.

02:07Other things that should be considered by the market players

02:09with CBDK and various projections for this year's investors, what is it like?

02:15Okay, so for CBDK, we expect next year,

02:21the pre-sales can increase.

02:23In 2024, the target pre-sales is around 2.4 trillion.

02:30Next year, in 2025, we expect the pre-sales to increase by around 15% to 20%.

02:37Because in the second peak, there is a toll that will immediately occur.

02:41Then, if we see that the facilities in the second peak or CBDK,

02:47the longer it is, the more complete it is.

02:49Of course, this increases the interest of buyers in the area.

02:54Like that.

02:55Okay, we go to the samples that you recommended this morning.

03:00Among them is Ada Pani.

03:02Maybe you can give us the complete analysis, Mr. Karel.

03:06Okay, for Pani, we cover Pani.

03:10We have a target price of IDR 25,075.

03:15We like Pani because of course it is a beneficiary of CBDK's IPO.

03:20Then, Pani itself, if we look at it,

03:24its earnings each year has almost doubled.

03:28Then, in terms of pre-sales, it can be said that it is very fast.

03:33Because it has a lot of new funds from last year's REC issue.

03:38Then, in terms of balance sheet, Pani has no debt at all.

03:43It can be said as a clean balance sheet.

03:45That's why we like Pani.

03:47Then, yes, we like Pani because of that.

03:51Okay, in terms of price valuation, how interesting is the last price for Pani, Mr. Karel?

03:56Okay, if Pani is currently around 20% premium to R&D.

04:04But it is expensive now.

04:07But we see that Pani still has a lot of empty land.

04:13Or the land bank is still a lot.

04:14Of course, this is also in line with the fast-growing pre-sales.

04:20So if we can see,

04:22if we want to pull this Pani for 3 years,

04:25its earnings grow very fast.

04:28That's why we like Pani.

04:30Okay, in terms of projection and also maybe a recommendation for Pani itself,

04:34from you, this is interesting to continue like this.

04:38Considering the growth projection here will also be interesting for the next 3 years.

04:42Okay, from Pani we shift to Blast, what is it like, Mr. Karel?

04:47Okay, if we like Blast because it is a market industry leader in light stones.

04:53Or Hebel, as we know.

04:55If we like Blast because it is also a substitute item.

04:59Hebel is a substitute item from redstone.

05:02We see that the supply of redstone in the future is getting longer,

05:06the more the land or raw materials run out.

05:09That's why we like Blast because it is a market leader.

05:14Then we can see that after the IPO,

05:18the user of the IPO funds to create a new factory,

05:21which will be this year.

05:23And we see that the earnings growth this year is up to 20-30%.

05:28Because there is a new factory and it is also a market leader,

05:32we like Blast.

05:34Okay, in terms of projection or maybe a recommendation for Blast itself,

05:37is it the same as Pani?

05:39Or do you see other possibilities?

05:41Other than that, the movement is also quite interesting.

05:43It can also be used for trading, for Blast itself.

05:46I think it's too long for Blast.

05:49Okay, the last price is interesting, quite cheap, or what?

05:55Yes, the last price is around 12x PI.

05:59But if we see that in terms of growth,

06:02which is 30% forward,

06:03it means we can assume that Blast is now below 10x PI.

06:09And if we look at the future,

06:12if we expect growth to be 20%,

06:14of course, it will only be around 7-8x PI.

06:18And in my opinion, among the friends who are in the field of building materials,

06:22there are those who are 15x PI up, of course.

06:26I think Blast is very interesting.

06:29Okay, from Blast we move to TOTL, what is it like?

06:34Okay, from TOTL,

06:36TOTL just announced that it got a new contract of around 5.1 trillion.

06:45Well, I say this is the highest number of contracts so far by TOTL.

06:53And that exceeds their target of only 4.5 trillion.

06:57Then TOTL itself, in terms of earnings this year,

07:02we expect it to increase by around 80% year-on-year growth.

07:07And then, TOTL also has a clean balance sheet,

07:10it has no debt at all.

07:12And in terms of valuation,

07:14TOTL is only traded at 8x PI.

07:18While other friends are above 15x PI too.

07:23For TOTL, we cover and we have a target price at 1,200.

07:31The latest price is interesting to be able to enter directly, right?

07:33Yes.

07:34Okay.

07:35Remember, you said earlier that there is no debt in installments,

07:39so that you can focus on business expansion and also increase in revenue.

07:44Okay, those were the friends who were recommended this morning by Pak Karel.

07:48Among them are Pani, Blast, and also TOTL.

07:51Meanwhile, we will see the movement of IHSG this morning.

07:57What do you see so far, Pak Karel?

08:01Okay, if we look at it,

08:03indeed, if we look at it globally, there are still many negative sentiments.

08:07Especially if we see that,

08:10if we look at the current economy,

08:13the fact that we will reduce the cut of the fruit tribe and others,

08:19of course, this makes not only Indonesia, but also globally.

08:23Globally, it is still consolidated, I think.

08:27But for me, the strategy is, of course, we will look at the sectors.

08:32One, it is a down-trading sector, if we can see.

08:38For example, PBID or something else is good.

08:43Because the longer it is, the more people open canteens or something else.

08:49After that, for others, I'm more into M&A this year.

08:55For example, there are many backdoor listings, acquisitions, and others.

09:00So this year, I'm more focused on which sector is down-trading,

09:04and which sector is the corporate action, and then there is M&A.

09:09Okay, if we look at the sentiment from the United States itself

09:16about the decision not to reduce the cut of the fruit tribe too much,

09:21this also seems to be quite heavy for the movement of the IHSG.

09:26How do you see this as a concern that may still be a concern,

09:32at least until the end of the trade later?

09:36Yes, so if the Fed doesn't reduce the fruit tribe that much,

09:42people are more likely to hold the dollar.

09:46And that's why the dollar is stronger than yesterday.

09:49Of course, this weighs the rupiah.

09:51Well, if the rupiah is weak, of course, what is affected are stocks that have high foreign ownership,

09:57such as banking.

10:00Of course, if we see that foreign ownership,

10:03banking is the main asset now in the stock market.

10:07If it goes down, of course it will weigh the stock market.

10:11That's why, if we look at it, we wait first.

10:15In the US, we continue to monitor the data.

10:17If, for example, we see that if the reduction of the fruit tribe happens, when?

10:23And that can be a positive catalyst.

10:26If the Fed has signs to reduce the fruit tribe in February or next month.

10:35Okay, that was some analysis related to ESG and also SAMPILIHAN and CBDK.

10:40We will see the Samsam researchers who are the top gainers,

10:43including PTRO, BRMS, Raja Brand, BUMI, PSAB, TPI, SSEA, then MDKA, and also ACE Hardware.

10:50And then there is AGRS, PLAN, LUCK, then KEJU, MTDL, VTNY, and BDKR, Avia, INDEX, and also AMMS.

11:02Okay, Mr. Karel, thank you for joining us.

11:04I hope what you said on this occasion can be a reference for market players in implementing their investment strategies.

11:11But again, the decision of the investment is back to you, the minister of IDXNL.

11:15Mr. Karel, good luck, I always see you.

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