- 1 year ago
Imagine if Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping threatened a hostile takeover of Greenland or the Panama Canal. So what about the president-elect of the United States? Is Donald Trump serious? Trump's growing fixation comes two weeks ahead of Inauguration Day. He even sent his son to Greenland, much to the dismay of Denmark. That EU member has ruled Greenland for two centuries. Today it needs US-led NATO support to stare down the more pressing threat of the Russians in the Baltic Sea.
Trump has goaded other allies, again suggesting a merger with Canada on the day when his liberal opposite to the north, Justin Trudeau, announced his resignation. Meanwhile, Trump vexed his neighbour to the south by saying he wants to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America. How do the Trudeaus of this world react?Beyond performative politics, what is it all about? Is the man who wants a Ukraine deal on Day One an isolationist or an imperialist at heart? What sets him apart from his Russian and Chinese counterparts?Produced by Alessandro Xenos, Rebecca Gnignati and Ilayda Habip.Â
Visit our website:
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Trump has goaded other allies, again suggesting a merger with Canada on the day when his liberal opposite to the north, Justin Trudeau, announced his resignation. Meanwhile, Trump vexed his neighbour to the south by saying he wants to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America. How do the Trudeaus of this world react?Beyond performative politics, what is it all about? Is the man who wants a Ukraine deal on Day One an isolationist or an imperialist at heart? What sets him apart from his Russian and Chinese counterparts?Produced by Alessandro Xenos, Rebecca Gnignati and Ilayda Habip.Â
Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
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00:00Imagine if Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping threatened a hostile takeover of Greenland or the Panama
00:06Canal.
00:07So what about the president-elect of the United States?
00:10Is Donald Trump serious?
00:12Trump, whose growing fixation comes two weeks ahead of Inauguration Day in the U.S., even
00:16sent his son to Greenland, much to the dismay of Denmark that EU members ruled Greenland
00:22since 1814.
00:24Today, it needs U.S.-led NATO support to stare down the more pressing threat of the Russians
00:30and the Baltic Sea.
00:31Trump's goaded other allies, suggesting a merger with Canada on the day when his liberal
00:36opposite to the north, Justin Trudeau, announced his resignation, or to his south, suggesting
00:42we rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America.
00:45How do the Trudeaus of this world react?
00:47Beyond performative politics, what's it all about?
00:50Is the man who wants a Ukraine deal on day one an isolationist or an imperialist at heart?
00:56What sets him apart from his Russian and Chinese counterparts?
01:00Today in the France 24 Debate, we're asking if Trump is serious.
01:03Joining us from Copenhagen, he's Denmark's former foreign minister.
01:07Vili Sovndal is today member of the European Parliament for the Green Left Party.
01:11Thank you for being with us.
01:13Thank you very much for the invitation to come along.
01:16Philip Golub is professor of political science at the American University of Paris.
01:20He's also the author of Power, Profit, and Prestige, a History of American Imperial Expansion.
01:27Happy New Year.
01:28Welcome back to the show.
01:29Happy New Year.
01:30Digital strategist, André Lézacourt-Piétry, president of the Joint European Disruption
01:34Initiative, remind us again what that is.
01:37That's the European Agency for Disruptive Innovation.
01:41So we basically invent the technologies of tomorrow, those who will bring Europe back
01:45into the race.
01:46And certainly a part of this power play that we're talking about.
01:50And from Montreal, Canada, Guillaume Lavoie, political scientist at UCAM, the University
01:55of Quebec at Montreal.
01:58Welcome to the show.
01:59Hello.
02:00Great to be with you.
02:01You can always listen, that's right, listen to the France 24 Debate wherever podcasts
02:06are streamed.
02:07Yeah, the smiles are forced and the reactions more and more pointed after some surprising
02:12statements out of Mar-a-Lago, Florida on Tuesday.
02:16Dilana D'Souza has more.
02:19A provocative press conference from the U.S. president-elect.
02:23Donald Trump laid out his territorial ambitions for the United States from his Mar-a-Lago
02:28estate.
02:29We're going to be changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, which
02:37has a beautiful ring to it.
02:38But it's more than just changing names that Trump is after.
02:41He reiterated his call to make Canada the 51st state and outlined how he'd do it.
02:47You get rid of that artificially drawn line and you take a look at what that looks like.
02:52And it would also be much better for national security.
02:54Don't forget, we basically protect Canada.
02:57Canada's outgoing prime minister put out a statement on X saying there isn't a snowball's
03:02chance in hell Canada would become part of the United States.
03:05In recent weeks, Trump has been making calls on how he wants to take control of Greenland
03:10and the Panama Canal.
03:11And during his press conference, he refused to rule out military force to achieve his
03:15goals.
03:16I'm not going to commit to that now.
03:20It might be that you'll have to do something.
03:22Look, the Panama Canal is vital to our country.
03:27We need Greenland for national security purposes.
03:31Officials in both Panama and Denmark, which control key areas of Greenland's affairs,
03:35reacted to the latest proposals from Trump.
03:38The sovereignty of our canal is non-negotiable.
03:42It is only Greenland who can decide and define Greenland's future.
03:46During Tuesday's press conference, Donald Trump also put America's NATO allies on notice,
03:52saying spending on defense should be raised to 5 percent of GDP, up from the current 2
03:56percent.
03:57I think NATO should have 5 percent, yeah.
04:00So Velysov, now, which of the threats do you take more seriously, Donald Trump warning
04:07his allies to increase their defense spending from 2 percent of GDP to 5, or this takeover
04:14of Greenland?
04:15Well, I think we are all a bit confused about what he says, because he says so many different
04:22things.
04:23Four years ago, his proposal was that he would like to buy Greenland.
04:29And the Greenland government said that it was not possible, Greenland was not for sale.
04:37Now he's trying in another way.
04:38Now he's trying with threats to get in control of Greenland, threatening both with military
04:47means and with economic means.
04:50And that's a new and harder approach from Trump's side.
04:55There was the U.S. Secretary of State in Paris earlier who said, look, let's not talk about
05:00this long.
05:01It's not going to happen.
05:02What was your gut reaction when you heard Trump on Tuesday?
05:05Well, first of all, a bit of surprise.
05:10Is it one of his crazy ideas?
05:13Is that serious meant?
05:14I mean, no, no one can decide the future for Greenland, but the Greenlanders themselves.
05:23And we are not going to accept threats.
05:27I also think Trump does not understand that threatening with fair duties is not possible,
05:36because we are part of a union, which is also a custom union.
05:41And I mean, trying to punish Denmark would be punishing not only Denmark, but would be
05:47matched with contrary measures from the whole EU.
05:52So I think he has to understand the nature of cooperation in Europe better than he does.
05:57All right.
05:58Is Trump serious?
05:59Yes, he is.
06:00Blair's French-language tabloid, Le Journal de Montréal.
06:04And since Montrealers are bilingual, copywriters threw in an, oh my God, there you can see
06:11it into the headline for good measure.
06:15Guillaume Lavoie, what is this about when it comes to Canada?
06:19Is it just personal enmity, doesn't like Justin Trudeau?
06:24Or is it about something else?
06:26I think it's as puzzling as it is.
06:32It's very much a Trump 101, very much on steroid this time.
06:36But his behavior is such that he usually does this, draw in a very offensive statement or
06:45a very out of this world demand in order to test the other part, the other party, to destabilize,
06:53to rattle.
06:54And then if it bites, if it excites, if it puts his name in the papers, then he enjoys
07:00it very much.
07:02And he's trying to create both leverage and visibility.
07:05And yes, it is not a reflex that's very statement-like, but that's not who he is.
07:12And even though this is much more than what we saw from Trump in his first term, it's
07:17still the same type of behavior.
07:20And perhaps one thing that Trump will have to pay for this later on, or the United States
07:26rather, that's he's going after the EU, Denmark, Canada, Panama.
07:33Those are all allies, longstanding allies.
07:38It's perhaps dangerous or ill-advised to go about demonstrating that it cannot be a trusted
07:45partner.
07:46Now, in Canada, we know the US very well.
07:49It's our neighbor.
07:50It's their number one trading partner.
07:52We're their number one trading partner.
07:54And we know that the American president, though a very powerful player, is not the sole decision
07:59maker in the United States.
08:01And therefore, we should look for reactions from other players, especially from Congress.
08:07So far, the reaction's been muted.
08:09André-Lézard Competi a few years back, when there was a first incarnation of Donald Trump,
08:13you were in this very studio, and you were talking about, pondering his sort of madman
08:19theory of diplomacy with the Chinese.
08:22Today, is this the same playbook that we were witnessing?
08:26Yeah, I think it's the same playbook.
08:28And I think even worse than his action or his way of behaving is the reaction.
08:35I mean, this is, as Guillaume said, vintage Trump.
08:39He's, I mean, remember the famous TV show with Larry King, where basically he destabilized
08:46Larry King by saying, you smell.
08:49And that is his technique.
08:50He wants to test if the other one has basically guts to react.
08:55And if he's feeling weakness, he's actually going to go.
09:00And here, the reactions of the Europeans, either muted.
09:03We didn't hear any of the Danish 26 partners reacting to that.
09:10We've heard them this Wednesday.
09:13Very, very little.
09:14I mean, this is a direct attack on sovereignty of a EU associated entity.
09:21I'm not a specialist to exactly tell the details of the relationship between Greenland and
09:25Denmark.
09:26But if we don't react much more forcefully, I think we're just showing for the next four
09:32years how the U.S. and how its president will react.
09:36And the one difference, I would say, to what Guillaume just mentioned, is Trump is much
09:41stronger.
09:43I mean, everybody is aligning with him from the tech giants to the House of Representatives,
09:50to the senators.
09:51I mean, Mar-a-Lago has become the new White House.
09:53I mean, even now, Meloni has gone to it.
09:56And I expect the 26 other heads of states in the EU to go to Canossa and basically do
10:03Koto in front of the president.
10:05So I think the problem is not Trump.
10:08The problem is our reaction.
10:10But of course, Philippe Gallop, if you're a European leader, you know, we're two weeks
10:13out from Inauguration Day in the United States.
10:15You don't want to burn your bridges yet.
10:17Well, I mean, I actually would like to come back to the question of Trump.
10:23We should get away from psychologizing the person.
10:28We should assume that when he says something, he means it, even if he doesn't mean it literally.
10:32He means that he's an ultranationalist who has a continentalist vision of the United
10:40States' role from all the way to the far north, from Greenland through Canada down to Mexico
10:45and beyond.
10:47He's the current representative of a long tradition, a long line of American nationalists,
10:53ultranationalist expansionists like Henry Cabot Lodge, who brought down the League of
10:57Nations in 1928.
10:58But he was not president of the United States.
11:01All I'm saying is you have to take him seriously to some extent.
11:04He's not going to invade Canada, that's obvious.
11:06He's engaged in coercive economic and public diplomacy, which has an aim, which is to the
11:12assertion of American national power over his allies.
11:15You're right about that, over the allies.
11:17What he's doing in the process of doing this is he's legitimizing future Chinese discourses
11:23and current Chinese discourses on Taiwan.
11:26When the Chinese government claims that it has sovereignty over Taiwan, it can point
11:30to Trump and say, well, look, Donald Trump is doing exactly the same thing we are.
11:35It legitimizes great power competition of a very particular type.
11:39It's a return to 19th century style politics in which anarchy, that is to say a world situation
11:46in which there's no superior authority to govern the behavior of the great powers, in
11:50which anarchy and power politics will dictate international relations.
11:53All right, well, there are some reactions that have come out, albeit not on the day,
11:57but the day after.
12:00The degree of incomprehension among European partners, says the German chancellor Olaf
12:05Schultz.
12:06Is Trump serious?
12:07Perhaps not, says France's foreign minister.
12:10You're asking me if I think the United States will invade Greenland?
12:16The answer is no.
12:17Have we entered an area that seems the return of the survival of the fittest?
12:21The answer is yes.
12:23And so should we let ourselves be intimidated?
12:26Should we let worry take over?
12:28Of course not.
12:29All right, so don't be worried.
12:34You don't agree with that?
12:35Well, he's not going to invade France, that's obvious.
12:37You know, when Colin Powell, after France's veto in 2003 at the United Nations over the
12:43Iraq invasion of Iraq, Colin Powell called Dominique de Villepin and said, Dominique,
12:48they use their first names, Dominique, France is going to be punished for this.
12:52Dominique de Villepin suavely responded, what are you going to do, Colin, invade France?
12:57So obviously, obviously, you know, Trump is not going to invade Denmark.
13:00He's not going to seize Greenland by force.
13:03He might do something in Panama, however.
13:05You have to look at this in a differentiated way.
13:06He's putting an enormous amount of pressure here.
13:09Greenland for the United States has represented a security issue since the First World War,
13:14since before the First World War.
13:16And it has been an increasingly important security issue since then.
13:19Now, given the competition around the Arctic with China, Russia and other places, let's
13:25talk about that right now.
13:26Trump's suggesting a swap for Greenland during his first term in office.
13:30Emerald Maxwell looks at the reasons.
13:34Reacting to Donald Trump's ambitions for Greenland, its prime minister was categorical.
13:40The island may be aiming for eventual independence, but it was not for sale.
13:46Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders.
13:48I just want to repeat that as I always have.
13:51Trump has once again raised his interest in taking over the semi-autonomous territory
13:55from Denmark.
13:57Greenland has been part of Denmark for more than 600 years, but is now broadly self-governing,
14:02with Denmark maintaining control of foreign affairs and defence.
14:06People really don't even know if Denmark has any legal right to it.
14:11But if they do, they should give it up because we need it for national security.
14:15Straddling the Arctic Circle between the United States, Russia and Europe, Greenland
14:20is strategically significant.
14:22The territory is already home to a large US military base, but the United States wants
14:27to expand it to better monitor potential Arctic threats.
14:31The island is a member of the US-led military alliance NATO, through its links with Denmark.
14:36But Trump on Tuesday did not rule out using military force to take it.
14:41Denmark's foreign minister said it was open to talks with the United States to safeguard
14:45US interests, while the Danish prime minister downplayed the threat.
14:49The United States is our most important and closest ally.
14:54We have supported each other in difficult situations, so I cannot imagine that we will
14:58come to that.
14:59Trump first expressed interest in buying the mostly ice-covered island in 2019, but was
15:05rebuffed.
15:06This time around, he's threatened to slap Denmark with very high tariffs.
15:10Underneath all that ice is a land rich with minerals and oil.
15:14So its government has banned extraction of oil and natural gas for environmental reasons.
15:20Greenland plays an outsized role in the climate changes taking shape all over the planet,
15:24as its ice continues to melt at a faster rate every year.
15:28Meanwhile development of its mining sector has been snarled in red tape and opposition
15:33from indigenous people.
15:35Ville SĂžvndal, following up from that report, is this all about expanding a military base
15:41and the negotiations surrounding that?
15:45Yes, the Americans have been present for decades in Greenland, but that's a fully another discussion.
15:55This discussion is about, and I agree with the analysis from before, we have a very aggressive
16:01American president who is testing.
16:04And there's two answers on this aggressive Trump approach.
16:09One is to make a much stronger European cooperation, both on foreign policy and defense.
16:16I think that's shown the necessity of that, again, by what's happened the recent days.
16:23And the other thing is to make, from EU, more allies reaching out to the global south, and
16:31to try to be a power in between a very aggressive new American administration and a more aggressive
16:39than before China.
16:41And there I think Europe has to find its way and do it quick.
16:46We do not have unlimited time.
16:50Not that we should not cooperate with the U.S., but we should do it from a position
16:56of strength.
16:58Do it from a position of strength.
17:00Another question, André Lézard-CompiÚgne, watching that report, it's not the same Greenland
17:05as before if there's global warming.
17:07Absolutely, because the most strategic part is obviously the bases.
17:11But the fact that with ice melting and trade becoming a very important part, the northern
17:17route is becoming a key part.
17:20So the maritime routes and the access, the capacity of controlling also all the Chinese
17:24ships or Russian ships that now take the northern route is obviously strategic.
17:30That's point number one.
17:31Let's not forget that it's a uranium rich country and energy is the name of the game.
17:37Of course, for energy production, but also think about AI and everything linked with
17:42the technological revolution.
17:44Technology is now 30 percent of the U.S. stock market.
17:46So it's really today powered by cheap energy.
17:50So you will be able to frack gas in the U.S., but nuclear is a second point.
17:56And the third thing is the rare earth.
17:57I mean, the whole transition in particular to renewables and to new energy is something
18:03which is fueled by minerals.
18:06And you have particularly two minerals in Greenland which are critical, which are neodymium
18:11and dysprosium.
18:12You use them for windmills.
18:15The paradox is that Trump wants to ban windmills from the U.S., but also it's used for semiconductors.
18:23It's used for missile guiding systems.
18:25And today, China controls 92 percent of the refining of these particular critical materials,
18:32which are called permanent magnets.
18:34They basically have much stronger magnetic capability.
18:38So for these three reasons, maritime, uranium, and critical, Greenland is absolutely strategic.
18:45Philip Golub, is it really the case that this is what it's all about?
18:49I mean, is it tooâwe always say, oh, where's the oil?
18:54Was it all about extractive industries?
18:55Is that what powersâpardon the punâglobal politics?
18:59Well, I mean, I agree with what's just been said.
19:02That's a significant part of it.
19:04I mean, economics andâinternational economics and international politics are deeply intertwined.
19:10They cannot be separated in any significant way.
19:13It's about great power competition.
19:15It's about great power competition.
19:16If you look at the Panama case, you know, on both sides of the Panama Canal, you have
19:21a Chinese state-run company that has shares in two ports on both sides of the Panama Canal.
19:30It's about great power politics.
19:32It's about the way in which the Trump crowd, in particular, envisions great power politics
19:37going forward and great power competition going forward, you see.
19:41And it's very different from the understandings of more sophisticated parts of the U.S. elites
19:46who actually understoodâTrump doesn't seem to understand thisâwho actually understood
19:50that, for instance, that NATO is a force multiplier for the United States, that international
19:54alliances are a force multiplier for the United States, that international cooperative agreements
20:00are a way to stabilize world politics.
20:02Trump thinks in a different way, and his crowd thinks in a different way.
20:06They're thinking in terms of national great power competition going forward.
20:10The Europeans will have to align with him, in his view, or be outside of that competition.
20:16If I can just complete that part, the difference to Trump, one, is that there was his crowd.
20:21I agree.
20:22But on the fact of national security, if you think Panama or the competition on critical
20:25materials with China, there is a huge consensus way beyond MAGA in Washington.
20:33I was there early December.
20:34I was struck that even the more, I would say, liberal part, when you talk about China, when
20:39you talk about great power competition, there's a complete consensus.
20:43So Trump is really very much backed there by, I would say, the wholeâon China, on
20:48the whole.
20:49And that concerns Panama and Greenland in a relatively similar way.
20:53Let's try to follow this logic.
20:55China is probably different.
20:56I was going toâor is it?
20:57Guillaume Lavoie, let me ask you, because if Greenland has coveted natural resources,
21:07what can we say about Canada?
21:08Is this what it's about?
21:10It's not really just about Justin Trudeau?
21:14It has very little to do with Prime Minister Trudeau, who's been in power for 10 years,
21:20which spans over the first term of Donald Trump.
21:24Mr. Trudeau, after 10 years in his party, it was only the natural course of events that
21:29it would come to the end of his mandate and his tenure.
21:33Now, we're in a world where the real strategic opponent or adversary is China.
21:41And in a world of microprocessors, rare earth material, energy, would be a very valuable
21:48commodity, and then blocs would be rivals amongst each other to have access to those
21:55materials.
21:56Canada, as Greenland, is one of the great world depository of those rare earth materials,
22:01strategic minerals.
22:04Perhaps that's where Trump is making a mistake.
22:07If he really wants to confront China, he'll need the help of allies, Western world allies,
22:15typically.
22:16Perhaps this is where the rest of us have been perhaps guilty of hubris.
22:22The United States is a superpower, that the natural inclination of superpowers is to behave
22:27like such, governed by self-interest, because they can.
22:31And so even though since the Second World War, the game has been the best way to preserve
22:38America's self-interest has been a world governed by the rule of law, more and more we're going
22:44into an era where a world governed by the rule of strength seems to serve, at least
22:52in the very short term, that goal.
22:55So perhaps the rest of the world has to take notice.
22:58And not to go as far as to quoting the movie Love Actually, but in response to a bully,
23:04one has to be prepared to be much stronger.
23:06And perhaps that's a big wake-up call of Trump's recent declarations.
23:11And on that score, is it a moment where you are of national unity, Canada, which is now
23:17heading into a general election campaign?
23:20Well, the whole thing about Canada being a 51st state is a non-starter.
23:27There is no political basis.
23:29Even the Conservative Party, which is to the right of Mr. Trudeau, has condemned the idea.
23:37For one thing, Canada rejects that offhand.
23:41Dealing with the United States is one of priority number one and number two for Canada.
23:46But he's not dividing Canada on that proposal.
23:50Perhaps even on the contrary, especially the premiers, the prime ministers of each provinces,
23:55because Canada is more than the federal government, it's a very decentralized federation.
24:00Everyone is sort of gathering together to develop a unified, clear strategy to respond
24:05to that kind of threat.
24:07On that point, Willy Svendal, recently the Danish prime minister, recalled the defense
24:15budget, saying it's not enough, that she needs more.
24:21And there is right now with these Russian and Chinese ships that have been suspected
24:30of damaging cables in the Baltic Sea, this idea of the growing tension.
24:36And Denmark is strategically located in that respect.
24:41Your thoughts on, is Donald Trump going to be part of the problem or the solution in
24:46the long run when it comes to confronting Vladimir Putin?
24:50We don't really know.
24:52Also because also here he is speaking with two voices.
24:56He's very close to Putin.
25:00And what he's making now of strategic moves might also interpret that he's afraid of Putin
25:09getting too much power.
25:11But I think the important thing is that it's not a discussion of a certain percentage.
25:20The fact is that we are spending a lot of money on defense in Europe.
25:24We're just not getting enough for the money we spend, because so many national considerations,
25:35meaning every country wants to have its own products.
25:38So if we want to be stronger, the most important thing, I think, is that we make a common policy
25:47and defense policy where we put together the money we spend and make a lot more effective
25:54production of weapon industry than what we do today.
26:01I think that's an important move and that's the move Europe is taking just now.
26:05There's been pointed out a new commissioner for defense.
26:09We're going to make a committee in the Parliament for Defense, which I'm going to be a member
26:15of as well, I hope.
26:17So I think we really have to step up in Europe being able to act.
26:22But there's one European problem which I think also be mentioned, and that is that not only
26:28Trump but also Musk are very much interfering in European policy just now.
26:34They do it in Germany.
26:36They do it in Britain.
26:40They do it with very much confrontation with the European policies.
26:46And maybe that might be the driver that European finally would push together and get some strength
26:55both in foreign policy and defense.
26:56I want to visit that second point of yours in a moment.
26:59But first, picking up on what you said about Europe needing to have a stronger defense,
27:04Andrzej Luzak-Petric, don't look too much at France these days.
27:08We have a big budget deficit problem jeopardizing the defense commitments we've already made.
27:16How about in Germany, where there's a snap election coming up, the Germans, which have
27:22boosted their defense spending, but to do more, they're going to need to get away from
27:28fiscal purity.
27:30True.
27:31But where I would completely agree with the minister is the fact that we need to have
27:37much bolder move.
27:38And I don't know what we need, because we already had the invasion.
27:41How about more spending on defense?
27:44You know, 80 percent, 78 percent precisely of what we spent additionally since the invasion
27:51of Ukraine, which is much more a challenge for us than anything that Donald Trump can
27:56say, has conduced to 80 percent of spending in equipment which are not European.
28:03By the way, it would be interesting to see how Denmark defends Greenland, because Denmark's
28:09air force is, I think, equipped with F-35.
28:12So you can expect that these F-35 will be not functional in case, totally improbable,
28:17of course, of a confrontation.
28:19I just say that on the side.
28:20I mean, currently what we are seeing is the U.S., Trump, but also Musk and also Zuckerberg
28:28now on free speech and on moderation.
28:30We can talk about that later.
28:32Actually, it's not them the problem.
28:34The problem is they are actually using our weaknesses.
28:38The fact that we don't have a strategic compass.
28:41All those who have been in defense affairs, and I hope the minister will be in this committee
28:46because we need much bolder, we have not been strategic.
28:50We have a transport plane, the A400M.
28:53It has a single name, but it has 11 different versions because every single air force wants
28:59its little.
29:00The French want the side door.
29:01The Germans want the back door for paratroopers, et cetera, et cetera.
29:05So totally a joke currently.
29:08The only thing we can do in common are things which are useless.
29:11For example, the next European drones, which is a 100 million piece drone that you will
29:15never use on a battlefield.
29:17Look at what's going on in Ukraine where you need much cheaper things.
29:20Third thing, the speed is not there.
29:23We've been discussing about a common Europe defense policy for years.
29:28The current fighter jet is at the brink of collapse, the famous FCAS or SCAF, as we say
29:33in France.
29:34So we need much more strategic thinking.
29:38We need courageous moves from different member states, France, Germany first, to abundant
29:44some of their parts in order to be focusing on some essential parts.
29:49And on that one, the only thing we need is much more strategy.
29:54And the fact that we have no strategy is actually a huge open door for our enemies or adversaries
30:01to actually just pull in.
30:03And so, to be honest, I'm not very hopeful because I think the current construct of a
30:08commission which is weak, of member states which have no money, of a parliament where
30:17the defense committee is not even a full-fledged committee, I don't see a powerful, bold move
30:24that is needed today.
30:26And you know, I don't know what we need more than Ukraine or Donald Trump's comments to
30:30make us move.
30:31All right.
30:32You mentioned those F-35s that are U.S. made.
30:34You could say that bathsways of the Internet that we use is U.S. made.
30:39On Monday in this studio, we discussed Elon Musk's acts of campaigning for far-right leaders
30:44in Europe.
30:45You just heard more on that from Vili Sovnal.
30:48Now, to avoid the wrath of Trump, MEDA following Twitter, or X's lead, and scrapping fact-checkers
30:55for its Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp platforms in the United States.
31:00It's coupled with what could be interpreted as a show of defiance to EU regulation against
31:05a absolutist free speech that stirs hate and violence.
31:09We're going to work with President Trump to push back on governments around the world
31:14that are going after American companies and pushing to censor more.
31:18Philip Gollub, your reaction to that statement from Mark Zuckerberg?
31:22Well, there's Zuckerberg and then there's Musk, of course.
31:24Musk has gone much further than Zuckerberg.
31:26Musk is...
31:27But he's saying they're going to work with the president to...
31:31Yes, yes.
31:32And then Musk is actually publicly supporting elements of the far-right in Europe, some
31:39of which have deep neo-Nazi roots.
31:41So you can actually qualify Musk at the current time as a techno-fascist.
31:46Maybe he was a libertarian before, but now he's a techno-fascist today.
31:49Fascist in the political sense.
31:50He's supporting fascist movements, neo-fascist movements, if you want to be more polite,
31:54throughout Europe.
31:55And he's intervening in European sovereign politics in a very direct way.
32:00Now Zuckerberg is going to be doing the same thing by not mediating.
32:03All right.
32:04But these are mere individuals.
32:05He's...
32:06What is...
32:07What's going on?
32:08They're groups.
32:09They're groups within Silicon Valley, powerful and influential groups of people who are involved
32:14in techno-disruption of their own.
32:17All right.
32:18Now, Marc Andres said, Musk himself, others, financiers, Horowitz, there's a whole group
32:22of people there.
32:23Are these outliers, or do they represent the United States of America?
32:26No, they represent a fraction, a significant fraction of Silicon Valley, OK?
32:31And they have financiers behind them that represent a significant fraction of finance.
32:35They don't represent all of finance.
32:36They don't represent all of Silicon Valley.
32:38But they represent a significant fraction of this.
32:40They're aligning behind Trump because they see their interests in aligning behind Trump.
32:44They see their own future commercial interests as being part of that.
32:47So it's not the United States.
32:49It's an elite fraction within the United States, which is now in an extraordinarily influential
32:54position within the White House itself.
32:57How their interests and Trump's nationalist geopolitics fit together, we have to see how
33:04that works.
33:05Guillaume Lavoie, do you have the answer to that?
33:08What's the common interest between this part of Silicon Valley and Donald Trump?
33:15Well, in a way, there's very little ideology with Trump.
33:20But behind him is essentially three things.
33:24A America first economic policy, which means tariffs for the others and subsidies for mines.
33:33A isolationist foreign policy.
33:36And the third one is not to be disregarded, which is the deconstruction of the administrative
33:42state.
33:43So getting rid of regulations, opening the door as much as possible for not business
33:49in general, but business in the know, local business, those who have interest and are
33:55connected to politics.
33:57He wants politics to govern regulatory environment.
34:02And in that sense, I see the greatest rivalry emerging between the EU and the US, between
34:07Brussels and Washington.
34:10And that's what Trump will be pushing.
34:13And let's not forget that he's on, not borrowed time, but a fairly short runway.
34:18The next midterm election are in two years.
34:21So the next 12 to 18 months for Trump are crucial in order to do as much as he can to
34:28establish those.
34:29So that's why you have all these businesses trying to line up with Trump or behind Trump.
34:34From where you're sitting, does the European Union seem as weak as described a minute ago
34:39by Andrei?
34:41Well, it depends on which file.
34:45But if in the end, there will be, I guess, three great sources of power, center of powers
34:51in the world.
34:52It'll be China, the European Union and the US.
34:57And if the, if any European country wants to have some sort of a counterbalance to a
35:03Trump led world, it needs to go through Brussels, I'm afraid.
35:08The French government spokesperson warning of physical and virtual acts of aggression
35:13on the part of global superpowers.
35:16Let's listen to a clip from the morning briefing.
35:24So today there is the rise of the blocks, which can be translated into a form of imperialism
35:30that is materializing both concretely in declarations like those of Mr. Trump, which are declarations
35:37about the physical, the annexation of entire territories.
35:41And then also digitally, I was going to say, through the digital force of a certain number
35:46of global operators, whether they be Americans, Chinese or others, to order and direct discourse.
35:54So, she used the I word there, imperialism, and she puts the United States and China in
36:08the same boat.
36:09Are you surprised to hear a French government spokesperson saying that?
36:11Well, it's quite rare for a European, a leading European official to say things of this type.
36:16I think it's important to say, you know, if you look at the long course of history, European
36:21overseas imperial expansion, imperialist expansion, in the 18th and 19th century and
36:26the beginning of the 20th century, it was much, it was overseas, the colonization process,
36:31the building of formal empires overseas was matched in the U.S. case by the building of
36:36a continental empire, territorial expansion throughout the North American continent.
36:41And then towards the end of the 19th century, international expansion of the United States
36:45at the expense domestically of the Amerindians, at the expense of a number of countries.
36:50If you think of Alaska, why is Alaska a U.S. state today, Alaska was purchased by the United
36:55States in 1867 by Stuart as an act of coercive economic diplomacy.
37:02The Russian minister who negotiated the deal with the U.S. said, well, he gave us the choice
37:06between selling it or just seizing it, you see.
37:09So there's a long history of territorial expansionism of that type in the U.S.
37:14I'm surprised that a French spokesperson would actually characterize this as imperialism
37:19on the part of what Trump is doing as imperialism.
37:22I think it's a rather accurate description.
37:24Vili Sovendal, do you agree that with what we've heard from Mar-a-Lago, you can put U.S.
37:30and China in the same boat?
37:32No, I do not agree.
37:36I think what Trump is standing for is an extreme nationalism, America first.
37:45That way, you can compare to China, which is also very much a nationalist development,
37:55especially in these years.
37:57You could put the same on Russia, on Putin.
38:02So I think the real struggle is a struggle between those of us who believe in strong
38:07international cooperation, strong international institutions, and the ones who want to weaken
38:16them.
38:17Because, of course, if you believe in the nationalist way of developing your country.
38:26It's more than, excuse me, it's more than just nationalism here.
38:29She's talking about a form of imperialism.
38:32No, I think I would not go that far.
38:38But of course, there is a cooperation, which I don't know if we should discuss that now,
38:44but where both Trump, but also Eden Musk and some of the allies are very much cooperating
38:52narrowly with the extremists.
38:58And they are really extreme parties in Europe with roots back to nationalism and fascism.
39:05And I think that's really worrying that there is this very strong cooperation from U.S.
39:11to Europe.
39:13And I think what we have to struggle for are strong international institutions.
39:19And there might be a lot of countries, not only European, also Canada, also New Zealand,
39:24also Australia, also countries in South America and Africa, also countries in Asia, who would
39:32be interested in a cooperation where we still have strong international institutions to
39:38deal with conflicts, to deal with climate problems, to deal with wars.
39:46And I think we have to strengthen from European side our reaching out to the rest of this
39:53world who want strong international institutions.
39:57Because the point is that if it goes into the direction of Trump, we are all losers
40:04in that game, except for some extremely rich Americans.
40:09And that's not the world I want to develop.
40:11Andrei Lysenko Petri, we're talking as the far right's been given a chance at forming
40:18a government in Austria.
40:20It would be a first ever far right chancellor there since the Second World War.
40:27Your thoughts on the number of people who you could call Trump whispers on this continent
40:32is growing.
40:33I mean, the dominoes continue to fall.
40:36And unfortunately, I don't think that Austria will be the end of this long line of Hungary,
40:41Italy, Czech Republic, and now Austria.
40:44I think Chancellor Schultz is watching very closely and Mertz from the CDU.
40:50Slovakia, you meant.
40:51Slovakia.
40:52Sorry.
40:53And I think the Germans should look at what happened in Austria, because it's not completely
41:00clear that the CDU will win a striking victory in February when you see what just happened
41:07in Austria.
41:08But we'll see.
41:09And the CDU could do a deal with the far right?
41:13For the moment, it has refused to do so.
41:15It has refused to do so, for example, in Saxony, where there was this possibility and this
41:22didn't happen.
41:23So I don't expect that to happen.
41:25But it could have AFD, which is much stronger than even what the polls predict.
41:30We'll see.
41:31It's going to be in a month and a half.
41:33But my point is to see is I think it's a consequence.
41:36I mean, the fact that Musk, Trump, Zuckerberg is pushing so much and even calling now Europe
41:43that was the words of Zuckerberg as, you know, censorship and those countries who want
41:47to suppress our free speech, the fact that Trump is going after Greenland, the fact that
41:53now the extremes are going into power, I think it's a symbol of our weakness.
41:59And I'm also on a moral ground interested in the rule of law and international institutions.
42:04But let's not forget, we are interested in these institutions because they protect the
42:09weak.
42:11And I think the Europeans need to learn again the language of power.
42:16They need to learn again the word they invented, real politics.
42:21And today, real politics is you can achieve your goals and your values only if you are
42:26strong.
42:27And right now, I don't see any sign of that in Europe.
42:30I see a lot of speeches in France.
42:32I see a lot of speeches in Brussels.
42:35I hear that the European commissioner for defense, the only mandate he has for his hundred
42:40first days is to do an action plan.
42:43I mean, Trump is not yet president.
42:46He's already actioning and sending his envoys to Greenland.
42:50I mean, the contrast is so striking between action on one side that we might regret and,
42:58you know, empty talks and absence of action.
43:02And I think the Europeans really need to wake up, not in a few weeks, not in a few months,
43:07but literally now.
43:09And I think it's existential.
43:11It was Mario Draghi who said, we live really at an existential moment of the European Union
43:16and the European project.
43:17And it's not even January the 20th yet.
43:20André Lozac-Pietri, I want to thank you.
43:22I want to thank as well Philippe Gallop, Guillaume Lavoie for being with us from Montreal,
43:26Vidy Sondal for being with us from Copenhagen.
43:30Thank you for joining us here in the France 24 to Be.
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