Smylie Kaufman Predicts Scottie Scheffler's Wins in 2025

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00:00We're going to start with Scotty, and the first question we're asking here is,

00:05how many wins in 2025 will Scotty Scheffler have?

00:09And maybe already kind of behind the eight ball, skipping the century,

00:12because that could have been one he could have won.

00:13In 2024, just a refresher, he won the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

00:18He won the Players.

00:19He won the Masters.

00:20He won RBC Heritage, the Memorial, Travelers.

00:24He, of course, won a gold medal at the Olympics.

00:27He won the Tour Championship, and he won the Hero World Challenge.

00:30So, Smiley, what number are you assigning to Scotty this year?

00:36I think the safest place to, like, set an over or under to me,

00:41I think five win seasons have been such a benchmark over, you know,

00:46since the turn of the century.

00:49Is that right, turn of the century, 2000 to...

00:52Yeah, that's...

00:53Okay, just making sure, like, my math was...

00:56Real chronology pot.

00:58Who would have thought?

00:59Not me.

01:01Well, since 2000, right, we know that Tiger Woods has done it plenty of times,

01:05winning five-plus times.

01:06We've seen Scotty Scheffler do it last year.

01:09And I look at the seasons that there have been five win players,

01:15and you got Justin Thomas has done it, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Vijay Singh.

01:21All four of these guys have done it,

01:22and I even think about guys who've never done it.

01:25Phil Mickelson has never won five times in a season.

01:27Rory McIlroy has not done it, at least with just official PGA Tour wins.

01:31So, four and a half is a good place to start just based off of history, right?

01:36Like, if he's able to win more than four and a half,

01:41now we go to the category of, okay, Scotty could be different.

01:46Like, he's having an incredible three-year run,

01:49one player of the year three years in a row.

01:50He's won two Masters, won all the times you just talked about.

01:54We are going to have to start putting Scotty in a different category

01:57if he backs up this season with something anywhere similar,

02:02whether it's five, six, seven wins on the PGA Tour.

02:05To me, that, it's unprecedented.

02:07When we just talk about Phil Mickelson already in the Hall of Fame,

02:10won X amount of times.

02:11Rory McIlroy won so many times.

02:14And it's only been done by four other players outside of Tiger Woods.

02:18So, that's where my brain goes is four and a half, over, under on it.

02:22I think he was probably going to win the century.

02:25So, that would have been one potentially,

02:27but let's say now he's not playing now that we know.

02:31I think four and a half, it's going to be hard, right?

02:34There's, I mean, the talent's there.

02:37I mean, I'm surprised you're coming out that conservative

02:40because I really do think it's going to be a double-digit win year

02:43for Scotty Scheffler.

02:44And I just think it's, we went from last year,

02:49the first part of that year was taking the putting from really bad

02:54to like baseline average,

02:56which as we've talked about numerous times on this podcast,

03:00if Scotty is putting really, really bad,

03:03he's probably top 10 finish.

03:05If Scotty's putting average, he is in and around the lead

03:09or he's winning the tournament by a shot or two.

03:11If Scotty's putting it good, above average,

03:14he's winning by five shots.

03:16So, last year, we saw the correction in large part due to the switch

03:20from a blade putter and messed around with some different,

03:22it went from a Scotty to like the Logan Olsen putter

03:25that then, you know, that company got acquired by TaylorMade

03:27and then finally gets into that TaylorMade Spyder

03:30and whatever it is sort of clicks

03:33and then he starts winning it at a higher clip that putting improves.

03:36And then we saw sort of the latter stage of this season

03:38doing some more work.

03:39I think with Phil Kenyon, they've continued to work together.

03:42He goes to that sort of saw grip on, you know,

03:44whatever they want to say, 15 or 10 feet in

03:47and made a big sort of leap in that category

03:51that I think is going to continue into 2025.

03:53So, that sample size is just so small.

03:55Even though it was very impressive what he did,

03:58I watched every shot of it.

04:00I still think you got to take that with a bit of grain of salt.

04:05It's where I'm at right now.

04:07Totally fair.

04:07And this is, and we're projecting here.

04:09We're making, I guess I'm not really going out on that much of a limb here,

04:13but I'm just saying that if that is taking the over,

04:15it sounds like I'm taking a well over.

04:18I mean, I'm doubling it.

04:19I think if it now,

04:20but the tricky one there is that the Olympics this last year

04:24is kind of like a bonus of it of sorts.

04:28It's an event that, you know,

04:30in that spot in the calendar Scott,

04:31he's not playing, you know,

04:32the Wyndham or whatever is going to be there.

04:35He's going to he's going to play like that.

04:38That's like a bonus signature event of sorts, right?

04:40And then also the hero.

04:41I mean, I assume he's going to be back in the field this year,

04:43but maybe decides he kind of wants to lighten up the back half of the

04:46schedule.

04:46It's been more time with family.

04:48And that's also like a non-sanctioned PGA Tour event.

04:50So really, you know, he has seven official wins.

04:53So it's getting to 10 would be significant.

04:55But I think it's I think it's again north of eight.

04:59I mean, I let me just play a little contrarian to your argument.

05:04Yes.

05:05Like we are.

05:06We just watched one of the greatest seasons this this sport has ever seen.

05:10Right?

05:10So why would you think he's just going to repeat it?

05:13Well, I'll say that his mental game

05:18and what he was able to basically take a leap going from,

05:23I thought a player that overreacted to a lot,

05:26you know, always seem to be bothered by mispots or,

05:31you know, just hands on the hip situations that,

05:34you know, didn't look like Tiger Woods out there as far as the mental game

05:36and just being able to handle the ups and downs of a round

05:40and a 72 hole tournament this past year.

05:43He's get some confidence in the putter.

05:44You can see that the confidence throughout the game comes about,

05:50but I just I just have to wonder here's a guy that now.

05:57I don't know if it's expectations can get even higher to put even more pressure on yourself

06:02because hey winning is not easy.

06:05It takes a ton of mental energy to win any week on the PGA Tour.

06:09He's unbelievable at golf, but he's got to still,

06:14you know, compete at that same level and have similar ball striking statistics.

06:19Do we think that's going to hold up over time?

06:23Is he going to have any injuries? I don't know.

06:25I personally think I'm very close to that four total wins to five total wins.

06:31I think he wins for four total. I would probably take the under.

06:35I would take three PGA Tour wins and one major.

06:37That's wow. I just think it's such a little bearish.

06:41I think it's very difficult to back up a season like he had.

06:46He found a little bit of luck in some tournaments like things went his way.

06:50He probably won three or so events that he probably shouldn't have which and here's past like he wasn't even,

06:59you know, he was finishing fourth. He was winning these golf tournaments.

07:02So I you have to wonder if the luck bug is going to be with on his side this year to win tournaments.

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