00:00There are three major events in 2025 that are believed to influence gold.
00:05The first is Donald Trump becoming the President of the United States.
00:09The second is that the Union Budget will be presented in February 2025.
00:14The third is that the decisions taken in the RBI's MPC meetings can also impact the gold rate.
00:21If we talk about Trump, the arrival of Trump can increase global instability, which can be positive for gold.
00:27But a strong dollar can reduce the speed of gold.
00:32We have also seen that Bitcoin has given attractive returns this year.
00:38This attracted investors to Bitcoin.
00:42Can it have a negative impact on gold?
00:45If we try to understand all these factors, what is your view?
00:50As far as Bitcoin is concerned, we can see a temporary effect of it.
00:56But as far as the question of comparison is concerned, Bitcoin is not a real asset.
01:00We can say that it is a digital currency and there is no underlying asset.
01:04So we can say that it can have a temporary impact in the short term.
01:09But as far as the question of real assets is concerned, it is gold.
01:12And its influence will always remain on investors.
01:16So I don't think it will have a long-term impact on gold.
01:22As far as the question of Donald Trump's office resuming is concerned,
01:26in the beginning of the year 2025,
01:29we believe that his policies will not be seen as strengthening the dollar.
01:36Because if the dollar continues to have a lot of strength,
01:40then the US growth will also be seen to be weakening.
01:44So there they will have to look at both sides of the coin.
01:48That when they are constantly talking about tariffs,
01:51the cost can increase in America again.
01:53If the dollar is kept strong for a long time, then it can delay their growth.
01:58So keeping an eye on all these factors,
02:01looking at both sides of the coin,
02:04they will be seen to adopt an accommodative form somewhere.
02:07So that the concerns of the US debt can also be seen to be addressed.
02:11And their growth rate should also remain.
02:14So I think there is a temporary bounce in the dollar.
02:19But in the long run, there will be a lot of difficulty in maintaining the strength of the dollar in 2025.
02:25And it will also be supportive of gold here.
02:28So it can be a little strong in the short term,
02:30but in the long run, the dollar will gradually be seen to be correct from the upper level.
02:35And it will support the value of gold.
02:37If we talk about the domestic front, then there is a union budget here.
02:41Last time we saw a big cut in import duty of about 9%.
02:47But here we see that the rate of import duty has come to a very moderate level.
02:52So there will not be much possibility of a duty cut from there.
02:56Because we are already seeing that the trade deficits are increasing continuously.
03:00So the government will also keep an eye on it.
03:02And the policy of MPC,
03:04while looking at inflation here,
03:06the RBI has not made any cuts in the interest rates.
03:10If inflation is controlled in the near future,
03:12and if there is a rate cut,
03:14it will be seen to be weakening the rupee somewhere.
03:17So the weakness of the rupee will also be supportive of gold here.
03:21So overall, if we look at the net,
03:23then there is no such worry that is seen to be for gold in the long run.
03:28And not only the global but also the domestic factors will also be supportive of value here.
03:34So sir, what are you hoping for import duty in the budget?
03:37Will the import duty be increased this time?
03:39Which was reduced in July by 15-16%.
03:42If we look at the things so far,
03:44then it does not seem that the status quo can remain.
03:47But if the trade deficit continues,
03:49if it increases in the next 1-2 months,
03:51then maybe the government can increase the import duty by 1-2%.
03:56But at present, there is no such indication from the government regarding duty.
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