Trump trade wars: What's next for India and the world?

DW (English)

India and the US were known to clash over economy during Donald Trump's first term, but US entrepreneurs of Indian origin still hope trade relations would improve with Trump's return to the White House.

Transcript

00:00Donald Trump is returning as U.S. President. He boasts a good relationship with India's

00:10Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. Many believe Trump's return will benefit India, including

00:15more immigration and better trade ties.

00:30It's worth noting that the U.S. had serious economic disagreements with both China and

00:35India during Trump's first term. However, U.S.-based entrepreneurs of Indian origin

00:40believe that, this time, things would go different for New Delhi.

01:00During Trump's previous term, his tariffs targeted metal imports. In 2018, he imposed

01:05a 25% tariff on steel and 10% on aluminum from India. As a result, steel exports from

01:12India to the U.S. were cut in half. The Trump administration also filed a lawsuit at the

01:17World Trade Organization over subsidies on goods exported from India. As a result, New

01:23Delhi had to change the way it provided extra funding to its traders.

01:28In 2019, the Trump administration also removed India from the U.S.

01:32generalized system of preferences, causing India to pay more when exporting goods.

01:37So, will Trump change his approach this time? Experts say no.

01:59At the same time, Trump's stance on imports could prompt a significant rise in inflation

02:06in the United States. Most economists predict Trump's tariff plan will harm the economy

02:25and increase inflation. However, many American businessmen of Indian origin

02:30disagree. They believe the U.S. economy will benefit in the long run.

02:55India currently receives about $12 billion annually in remittances from the Indians

03:09living in the U.S. Some worry that Trump's policies could also threaten this source of money.

03:26The anti-immigration sentiment that has grown in this country in recent years,

03:37partly as a result of the rhetoric that Trump has encouraged,

03:46that is going to have some impact in discouraging, for example, from people coming in.

03:56The H-1B visa, which is aimed at attracting highly skilled immigrants to the U.S.,

04:00has long been mired in controversy. Anti-immigration voices say this visa is used

04:05to give away well-paid jobs to non-U.S. nationals. Still, Indian students hope Trump will remove

04:12some of the red tape upon returning to office, making both studying and securing a job easier.

04:25Trump's policies pose challenges for many countries,

04:54including India. Major economies are already preparing for a bumpy ride ahead. For example,

04:59Trump proposes a 60% tariff on Chinese products.

05:02And the U.S. might also try to reorganize global production chains.

05:24That's really a pie in the sky. That's not going to happen.

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