00:00Russian forces continue to make significant tactical advances in western Donetsk region
00:10and are coming closer to enveloping Velyka Novosilka and advancing towards important
00:14Ukrainian ground lines of communication supplying the rest of western Donetsk region and running
00:20into eastern Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions.
00:25Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces are advancing to the eastern outskirts
00:29of Velyka Novosilka, just east of the Donetsk-Zaporizhia region border area.
00:35Moscow troops are also continuing efforts to eliminate the small pocket southeast of
00:40Kurakhove and northeast of Vuhlydar.
00:42The Institute for the Study of War previously assessed that Russian military command has
00:47several potential causes of action in this sector of the front, and two of them are more
00:53probable.
00:55They can push west along the road to the Andreevka-Kostiantynopel line from Kurakhove.
00:59They have already seized positions along the road.
01:02Recent Russian advances to central Kurakhove placed Russian forces about 15 km east of
01:08Andreevka.
01:09This would give Russian forces a stronger position from which to envelop a chain of
01:13settlements along the highway northwest and northeast of Vuhlydar.
01:18Or, they may continue advancing west along the road towards Andreevka while attacking
01:23into the pocket northeast of Vuhlydar along the Uspenivka-Hanivka-Romanivka line, trying
01:28to force Ukrainian forces to withdraw westward to avoid encirclement.
01:33Such a maneuver could enable Russian forces to seize tactical positions in the area and
01:38level the front line from Sonsivka to Konstantinopolske, placing Russian forces about 23 km east of
01:45the Donetsk-Dnepropetrovsk region border at its closest point.
01:50The Institute for the Study of War assesses that Russian advances in western Donetsk region
01:55do not automatically mean the collapse of the Ukrainian front line, but Moscow's advances
02:00here may become operationally significant if the Russian command properly exploits these
02:07recent tactical successes.
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