Significant rain coming to the Northeast, followed by the first snow of the season

AccuWeather

Very welcome rain is expected in drought-stricken areas from Nov. 20-21, with significant snow in high elevations coming afterward.

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00:00To help us break down some of these details, we're joined now by AccuWeather Northeast expert

00:04meteorologist Dave Dombeck. And Dave, you know, we have a pretty aggressive front here and

00:09just kind of on the fly at this moment. A new severe thunderstorm warning was actually just

00:14issued for Pittsburgh. So there is some wind energy despite the lack of lightning with this

00:19squall line moving east. Yeah, this is a very potent storm. If you just look at the setup,

00:25Jeff, in the upper levels of the atmosphere and at the surface, you know, the two are in

00:30relation to each other in conjunction with each other. One feeds off of the other. But this is a

00:35very potent situation. And we're looking at a lot more weather going on here over the next 48 hours

00:41or so. Absolutely. And you can see this area, all of Allegheny County, southern parts of Butler

00:46County under a severe thunderstorm warning until 5.15. Portions of Beaver County, most of Washington

00:51County, PA as well. But right now, Dave, most of the precipitation is in the interior northeast.

00:58You know, yesterday we did okay with precipitation in the interior. As the first surge of moisture

01:02moved east yesterday, it just kind of fizzled a little bit. This one's going to be a little

01:07bit different. We need rain in a severe way across the northeast. Oh, big time. Yeah, it's been so

01:13long since we've had any significant rain. I was actually just looking at Philadelphia, for example.

01:19This is going to be, this upcoming rain system that we're dealing with, this is going to be the

01:23biggest rain that Philly has had in about three months. You have to go back to, I think, the third

01:28week of August to get a rain that's comparable to what we're expecting there overnight tonight

01:36and into early tomorrow. And rainfall wise, we're looking at a half an inch to an inch there. You get

01:42a little bit farther northeast, New York City area, a good one to two inches with some places

01:47in their area, not too far away, probably in the two to three inch range. So, much welcome rains.

01:53It's been so dry and all we're dealing with here the last couple of weeks, it seems like, is

01:58fires. And this will be a great help for that and to douse those fires. And it was back at the

02:03beginning of this month when Philadelphia broke that 42-long day stretch with no measurable rain.

02:09We had about, what, 0.2 to 0.4 inches between Lancaster and parts of central Jersey. So,

02:14as you mentioned, we're looking a little more optimistic at some heavier rain tonight. So,

02:18if we take this forward here in time, Dave, the rain's going to increase and take us through the

02:24next night, through tomorrow, and then into tomorrow night as this all plays out. It's

02:28going to get wet and some are even going to begin to see some snowflakes. That's right.

02:33The first order of business is the rain. It's going to be a very significant rain

02:38for the morning commute. For example, the farther up the coast you go, it'll be a rough

02:43commute with ponding of water on roadways in the New York City area that will move into New

02:48England. But again, a big general area of 1 to 2 with locally 2 to 3-inch amounts.

02:54And then what we're going to see happen as the upper-level low-pressure system that's kind of

02:59just rolling eastward, it's going to capture a surface storm, a secondary storm that's going

03:03to form off the mid-Atlantic coast. And instead of that storm being able to just escape out the

03:09sea and go northeastward or head up toward the Canadian Maritimes, it gets captured by that

03:14upper low, and then it kind of just holds in place, deepens some, strengthens, and then it

03:18actually gets pulled northwestward up toward New York City and eventually into upstate New York,

03:24and it'll just do a loop-de-loop and eventually come down into Pennsylvania over the early part

03:31of the weekend. So as that's happening, strong winds are circulating around the counterclockwise

03:37circulation around this storm will bring in some colder air and we will see a transition over to

03:42snow over the higher elevations, Poconos, Catskills, for example, late tomorrow afternoon and especially

03:49tomorrow night, Thursday night. And we're looking at a very substantial snowfall for those areas,

03:55which is not unusual for this time of the year. Sometimes storms like this and big snows could

04:00happen, you know, in October, mid or late October. So this is certainly nothing out of the ordinary

04:05for this time of the year, but it is very significant as the first big snowfall of the

04:10season. And some of the highest elevations, Catskills, Poconos, and, you know, far northeast PA,

04:16maybe some of the ski areas up there like Elk Mountain, 2,600 feet in elevation, we could be

04:24looking at over a foot of snow by the time it's all said and done. A classic mid-November storm,

04:29mid to late November, very elevation dependent as you said, but this is a big win. I know it's

04:34going to be a little bit hazardous, the travel's going to get tricky, the snow plows will be out,

04:38but it'd be great to see the rain. And as you commented just before we hopped on the air,

04:42almost every wind event we've had lately has been associated with some degree of fire danger. We

04:46got the wind in again, but in this case, it'll be very, very wet. Yes, exactly. That seemed like

04:52every time we talked about an uptick in the wind speeds, a burst of stronger winds, we had to deal

04:59with increased fire danger once again. It was like wash, rinse, and repeat pattern for a couple

05:06of weeks, but finally we're going to get quite a bit of wind at times over the next few days,

05:11and we won't have to be talking about increased fire danger because the fires will be doused by

05:16a good soak in rain. All right, that's all great news there, and again, be careful when you're out

05:21and about on the roads. But thanks again, AccuWeather meteorologist and northeast weather

05:25expert Dave Dombeck. Always appreciate your insight, Dave. You bet. Have a great evening.

05:30You too, Dave, and you may recognize the voice there. Dave's on some of the big,

05:34big market northeast radio stations and beyond here from our headquarters in AccuWeather.

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