Cowboys vs. Texans: Week 11 Game Prediction & Analysis

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00:00We have a game tonight to finish off week number 11.

00:07It is the Battle of Texas, Houston Texans, Dallas Cowboys, unfortunately, Cam, the Cowboys

00:15stink now, which is very, F. Cooper runs playing quarterback.

00:20And that's another team.

00:21There's so many teams around the league where it kind of just feels like the walls are closing

00:26in on them.

00:28And the Cowboys are absolutely one of those teams.

00:30Now the Texans, Cam, kind of to go to their side of things, they haven't exactly been

00:35playing great football either.

00:38You know, they blew that big lead to the Lions last week.

00:41They lost at home.

00:42They lost to the Jets the week before that.

00:45They haven't scored a second half touchdown in four games.

00:49So as easy as this looks on paper, and whenever you see a team being a touchdown favorite,

00:57you like to think they're going to win the game comfortably.

01:00I don't know about, I don't know, Cam, you think that the, and I get, they get Nico Collins

01:04back tonight, who's been out for a long time and he's their biggest play wide receiver

01:08threat.

01:09I think it's that easy for Houston and I, Cam, just no problem whatsoever.

01:13They're going to just stroll into, and everybody has strolled into Dallas lately and beat up

01:18on the Cowboys.

01:19Everybody's done it, but maybe on a Monday night, do the Cowboys have any kind of juice?

01:24Any?

01:26You know me, Carver.

01:27I'm going to get my knife cut so many times tonight.

01:31The show with Gabe, it will be four hours of frustration because he'll be on Houston

01:35and I'm going to be on Dallas.

01:37And I will take the damn points with these guys.

01:38If I do anything, it will be Houston money line, like with a total to knock it down to

01:43plus money.

01:44I don't trust them covering seven points.

01:46I don't care who the Cowboys quarterback is.

01:48You know what I mean?

01:49Like if it was Trey Lance, maybe I would bet, bet Houston, but Cooper Rush.

01:54I think this game is going to be actually closer.

01:55I think Houston's going to win this game by like three to four points, not seven.

01:59I think it's going to be actually a tough game for them, but Carver, you know me.

02:03I have too many dogs in my house and I like too many, and that's just the way it's going

02:07to be.

02:08Nothing's that easy.

02:09When I see a number at six and a half, seven, know what I think?

02:11Teasers getting blown up.

02:13There's going to be weird stuff happening, but I don't think it's that easy for Houston.

02:17Third team that could be beaten.

02:18And I know Dallas sucks, but you'll probably like Houston tonight, but I don't, I don't

02:23really have any empirical data to back up Dallas, just a vibe.

02:28As of us speaking right now, Cam, it is seven and a half, by the way, which kind of leans

02:34me even more, I'm not going to lie to you, to maybe taking a shot with the Cowboys tonight.

02:40And the total is 41 and a half.

02:42And I will tell you here, I think we have a couple of pass to the over 41 and a half,

02:47believe it or not.

02:48And I know, I know Cooper Rush didn't leave you much, you know, didn't get you too excited

02:54last week when he was out there.

02:57I think they're going to be a little bit better this week in terms of moving the ball offensively.

03:03Maybe this game is they're both in the low twenties and Houston has to get out or Cam

03:09Houston absolutely smashes them.

03:11And I think it goes over 41 and a half because they might score 35 or 38 by themselves.

03:16So I think I have a couple of paths to the over.

03:19So I'm going to go there, Cam, instead of maybe that seven and a half, I'm gonna take

03:23the over 41 and a half.

03:25I like that.

03:26I'm going to do a teaser, probably both sides to the over, which is basically Houston winning

03:31the game.

03:32Give me Dallas 14 and a half.

03:33I know people say do six point teasers, but that's an incredibly important hook at 14

03:37and a half.

03:38So that's the way I'm going to roll.

03:40I'm going to do it's teaser night.

03:41I don't love the game, but I'll take the points with the Dallas Cowboys and all I need on

03:44those teasers.

03:45Carver is 34.

03:46I think we can get there.

03:49And I like to do this with Pharrell all the time.

03:51So I will do it with you as well.

03:53I always give him some kind of stat to make him think about it before the game.

03:57CJ Stroud, three and eight against the spread as a favorite of three or more points.

04:05Three and eight.

04:06Hasn't been great covering when, when, when the Texans have been now.

04:10And I also, so I believe this is the most he's ever been favored in a game, ever more

04:13than seven in a game.

04:16So if that goes off at seven and a half, it will be the most he's ever been favored.

04:19He's three and eight in spots like this.

04:21So that was just something to keep in mind, Cam, for tonight.

04:24As far as the props for you, the most bet props over at BetMGM, Cooper Rush under 178

04:31and a half passing guards, Joe Mixon over 86 and a half rush yards.

04:36Nico Collins over 72 and a half receiving yards.

04:39Cooper Rush under 33 and a half pass attempts, CeeDee Lamb over 59 and a half receiving yards.

04:48You will get some lamb props on the cheap tonight, Cam, if you are a believer in Cooper Rush.

04:54You will be able to get some nice alts with CeeDee Lamb, 70, 80, 90, if you think that

04:59he can get it done.

05:01I'll give you another perspective.

05:03Cooper Rush is a backup quarterback who play with backup players.

05:06His guy is Tolbert.

05:08Tolbert is the answer to the thing.

05:10You know, everyone can go with Lamb.

05:12I like Tolbert first touchdown at 22 to one tonight.

05:15Also anytime touchdown.

05:17And I think he'll go over his yards and receive.

05:19I'm all in on Tolbert tonight.

05:20Wow.

05:21All right, Cam.

05:22I'll add Tolbert in too.

05:24Now I don't have him on my board here for tonight with the Tutties, but I will throw

05:28Tolbert in the mix.

05:29I've played him in the past.

05:31That's usually a pretty good number on him.

05:32In fact, what numbers you get for Tolbert, Cam?

05:35Let me tell you what I have.

05:36I got 22 to one for first touchdown.

05:39That's too big.

05:40For first.

05:41And anytime is huge.

05:42I always play first and then I'm going to go.

05:43I got six to one for anytime.

05:45I have six to one for anytime.

05:47I have 25 to one for first.

05:50I got 25 to one for first touchdown where I'm looking right now.

05:55Who am I already in on?

05:57I'm already in on Nico Collins.

05:59And I usually hate going chalk for first touchdown, but I feel like his first game back, he's

06:05a full go.

06:07Stroud loves him.

06:08I feel like there's going to be, he's going to be looking his way early and often.

06:12So six to one for Nico Collins.

06:14Play him anytime as well at plus a buck 20.

06:16Rico Dattle is allegedly now, I guess, the lead back.

06:21So he's plus a buck 35.

06:23And this Mechie, I know that Collins is back.

06:25He doesn't get as much burnt.

06:27But this Mechie, Cam, he's been getting some looks from Stroud the past few weeks.

06:32Of course, had a touchdown against the Lions last week.

06:35550 is a little too much for me for a guy who's basically like their third guy.

06:39Now I'm in for Mechie tonight at plus 550.

06:42So that's where I'm at.

06:43I'll add Tolbert in too, Cam.

06:45Six to one for Tolbert.

06:46I'll get involved there.

06:48I'm going to tell you, I think the two biggest like value plays are Tolbert and Mechie.

06:53Everything that you talked about.

06:56And this is one thing you got to think about.

06:59You have Joe Mixon for first touchdown running back three to one.

07:02He's a favorite for a reason.

07:03But you got Dattle at like nine to one.

07:05That is a great number for a running back if they get close and they want to feed him.

07:09Like that is fantastic, Carver.

07:11And I like Dattle anytime touchdown as well.

07:13We're reading each other's mail.

07:15I usually like, you know, silly bets like this too in games that I think could be blowouts.

07:21Cooper Rush, two passing touchdowns.

07:24Now again, could be in the game and he gets two.

07:27Could be down 30 and he gets some garbage time.

07:31Four to one, plus 400 for him to throw two tutties tonight.

07:35So I kind of like that too, Cam.

07:37As a nice, yeah, it's a good price.

07:39These crap games have great props.

07:41Like that's the whole thing.

07:42But I hit those yesterday.

07:44You know, I played a, I've kind of been after that recently, Cam, because yesterday I did

07:47Drake Bay for two passing touchdowns at a good price and hit.

07:50I did Gardner Minshew for two passing touchdowns.

07:53I like taking the dog quarterback to have two touchdowns if it's a plus money number

07:59because they're going to be down in the game, you know, and there's a chance they may even

08:04get blown out in the game.

08:05And what are they doing if they're getting blown out, Cam?

08:08They're throwing the football.

08:09Could they get pulled?

08:10Sure.

08:11They could get pulled.

08:12You lose.

08:13But I'll take my chances.

08:14And that happened yesterday.

08:15Minshew and May both threw two touchdowns.

08:17We'll try it again.

08:18And look at that, Cam.

08:19It went to 390 as I was sitting here saying it.

08:20So somebody ran out.

08:21Good for you.

08:23Ran out by 390, right?

08:24Yeah, right.

08:25Yeah.

08:26A moving number.

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