00:00Former President Donald Trump heads into Election Day having significantly narrowed the polling
00:05lead Vice President Kamala Harris carved out against him shortly after her entrance into
00:09the race, with averages showing Trump leading four of the seven battlegrounds, but by such
00:15slim margins the race could be either candidates to win.
00:19Polls indicate Trump's clearest path to victory runs through the Sunbelt states of
00:23Arizona and Nevada, where he's ahead by 2.2 points and 0.3 points respectively, and
00:29in the historically red states of Georgia and North Carolina, where he leads by one
00:33point each according to 538 polling averages.
00:37If Trump wins all of the non-swing states he won in 2020, plus the Sunbelt and Southern
00:42swing states, and one of the three blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania,
00:48then it would put him over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win.
00:53According to polls, Trump is most likely to win Pennsylvania, where he and Harris are
00:57tied, which would give him 287 electoral votes.
01:01While less likely, Trump could also theoretically win if he takes back the three blue wall states
01:06that he secured in 2020, plus either Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina.
01:12Trump lost to Biden in six of this year's swing states in 2020, with the exception of
01:17North Carolina, and he won six of the seven in 2016, with the exception of Nevada.
01:23A repeat of polling flaws from 2020 and 2016 could lead to an electoral college sweep for
01:28either candidate.
01:30All seven swing states have average polling margins of 2.2 points or less, meaning that
01:35if polls are off by just two or three points in favor of one candidate, they could win
01:40by a landslide.
01:42For more on this story, check out Sarah Dorn's article in the link in the description.
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