00:00Vice President Kamala Harris heads into Election Day with polling averages showing a near tie
00:05with former President Donald Trump in the blue-wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania,
00:11and Wisconsin, considered her clearest path to the 270 electoral votes she needs to win
00:17the election.
00:18Harris will hit exactly 270 electoral votes if she wins all three northern swing states,
00:24plus all of the other non-swing states President Joe Biden won in 2020, and the electoral votes
00:30he won in Maine and Nebraska, which are the only two states that split their votes.
00:36Harris could also repeat Biden's 2020 path to victory by winning 6 of the 7 swing states,
00:42with the exception of North Carolina, earning her 303 electoral votes, but the prospect
00:47looks less likely considering most polls show Trump ahead in Arizona, North Carolina, and
00:53Georgia.
00:54Though the margins are within less than 2.5 points in all three states, so the race could
00:59swing either way.
01:01A decline in Republican-leaning, non-college-educated white voters, coupled with a rise in college-educated
01:07white voters, who are increasingly Democratic, could benefit Harris in the blue wall, while
01:13growing diversity in North Carolina and Georgia, along with a leftward shift among suburban
01:18voters, could also help Harris, though Republicans have a natural edge in both states.
01:24A repeat of polling flaws from 2020 and 2016 could lead to an electoral college sweep for
01:30either candidate.
01:32All seven swing states have average polling margins of 2.2 points or less, meaning that
01:37if polls are off by just 2-3 points in favor of one candidate, they could win by a landslide.
01:44For more on this story, check out Sarah Dorn's article in the link in the description.
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