Georgia declared result 'would have been impossible without blatant vote-rigging': analyst

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00:00Let's get a deeper analysis and bring in Tinetin Djibaridze, who's from the Eurasia Group.

00:05Thank you for joining us. Eurasian political risk analyst. I'm wondering from your perspective,

00:11what kind of risks is Georgia facing right now?

00:16Mark, it's good to be with you. Unfortunately, not very good to be talking about such a worrying

00:22picture that we are seeing right now in Tbilisi and also within the broader region.

00:29Obviously, it's clear that Georgia is trying to decide for itself if its leadership will not

00:37help it, how it can proceed towards its European goals and the European family that it deems itself

00:45to be a rightful part of. It's an incredibly, incredibly tense time in Tbilisi right now.

00:52There is an air of uncertainty, but on the other hand, we're seeing a lot of anger.

00:57And I think it was very important for us to see the president's statement yesterday ahead of

01:02today's rally, where she let us know that we cannot, under any circumstances, accept the

01:09results that were dealt to us by the Georgian dream and through the Georgian dream by the

01:16Central Election Committee. The issue, I suppose, is where's the proof that this election is

01:22corrupt? I mean, clearly, Salome Zorodishvili has a perspective and an analysis. You regard

01:28the situation very closely, too. You have an eye on what happens across the board there. But

01:32nonetheless, there is an election committee which is bringing a result of 54 percent for the Georgian

01:37dream party. I'm just putting those facts out there. Try to give us how we should interpret

01:42the fact there has been some kind of corrupting of the vote. Well, we have yet to see the actual

01:51evidence, but we know for sure that the evidence with proper investigation will absolutely be

01:58revealed. We saw that the declared result by the Central Election Commission would have been

02:05impossible without the sort of manipulation and blatant vote rigging that we witnessed,

02:10not only on Saturday, by the way, Mark, but also in the run up to the election that was marred by

02:15an uneven playing field. It was very, very clear that the Georgian dream was going to try to rig

02:21the results. We saw, obviously, ballot stuffing. We saw people who were threatened that if they

02:28did not go to the polling stations and vote for the correct, so to speak, party, then they would

02:34lose their jobs. So we were talking about the livelihood of a lot of people. So, of course,

02:38they were very, very worried. And many of them did show up and voted for the party that they

02:43were told they had to vote for. But by no means was this a free and fair election. And the

02:49environment was far from free and fair. It was here in the days preceding the actual election

02:55day. And it was very clear that there was a lot of fear among people, even when I asked them,

03:00who are you going to vote for? And they did not want to tell me because in either scenario,

03:04they were very concerned that if they did not say what they were supposed to say,

03:08that they and their families would get into trouble. That is not right for a democratic

03:13country. The examples you've given, I think, illustrate exactly what the president is talking

03:18about. And that is clear. We hear from Bitsina Ivanishvili, who is the man who bankrolls the

03:24Georgian Dream Party, that he's doing the best for the freedom of Georgia. That's what he's

03:29claiming, broadly speaking. One senses he's representing his own interests and that's that.

03:36What happens next, though? Because clearly, he, I suppose, if he raises one finger,

03:42Moscow might be willing to come in and help him to maintain what he wants to maintain.

03:46Is that something that could happen? Yes, it could. It could, especially if

03:53the public does not accept the results that we saw on Saturday, if they refuse to accept this

03:59reality, because it is not a reality, it's an absolute absurdity. And if there is a push for

04:07new elections, then either the Georgian Dream will try to repeat their scenario, something that

04:14they've been doing for a very long time. This is not the first time, unfortunately, that the

04:18Georgian Dream has stolen the elections, but maybe not at this scale before. So if that does not work,

04:26then, of course, that means that the Georgian Dream is unable to maintain power on its own.

04:33So who will they call? They will inevitably have to call on Moscow. And Moscow has already pledged

04:40their wholehearted support for the Georgian Dream because, of course, this is the best

04:46possible scenario for Moscow to have someone like the Georgian Dream. And just one thing that I

04:52wanted to mention, very, very often, Mark, we hear people talking about the Georgian Dream as a

04:57pro-Russian party. Of course, we know for sure that Bidzina Ivanishvili himself is very pro-Russian

05:04because, after all, that is where he made his fortune and he has a direct link to Moscow.

05:10But on the other hand, I do believe that this is a bit of an oversimplification when we describe

05:16them solely as pro-Russian because, ultimately, they are and have always been pro themselves.

05:23If they can stay in power with Russia's support, of course, they will be pro-Russian. But the moment

05:30that we see that disconnect between Moscow and Tbilisi, if at any point the Georgian Dream's

05:35leadership does not feel that they need Moscow anymore, they could go in either direction.

05:42And that is the danger. I think that is the true autocracy, if not authoritarianism in the making,

05:48that we are seeing, that the Georgian public is absolutely not going to accept no matter what.

05:55They will not be rolling over and accepting defeat. This is not something that the Georgians

05:59can afford at the moment or ever, really. Tinetin Japoritsa, thank you very much for

06:03joining us and sharing your analysis with us here on France 34. We appreciate it. Thank you

06:06very much indeed, Tinetin Japoritsa of the Eurasia Group, where she is a Eurasian political

06:12risk analyst. Thank you for joining us here. We appreciate your time. We, of course, are watching

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