College Football Playoff Odds Update: Top Teams Evaluated

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00:00But now we look at the college football playoff odds. Where is the country

00:07stacking up right now entering this last Saturday in October? There is a new

00:12number one atop the AP top 25. That is Oregon will break down the Ducks battle

00:18in a top 20 tilt today at home inside Autzen Stadium against Illinois. But as

00:23we look at the 10 best prices to reach the college football playoff, everybody

00:27is in minus money. In fact, on the FanDuel Sportsbook, 13 teams have a minus

00:32money price. Alabama, minus 105. Better odds to miss right now than make the

00:38college football playoff. But, Lacey, let's start at the top. Oregon, minus 3,500.

00:44Georgia, minus 1,700. Ohio State, minus 1,000. Texas, minus 850. And Penn State at a

00:52minus 600 number. The five best prices all heavily juiced to reach the CFP. Do

00:58you think all five of those programs will be playing in the college football

01:01playoff? I don't think so. I don't think all five will make it. I think one or two

01:05possibly will be out. We see Georgia with one loss. They still have tough games

01:09down the stretch, but I still think the Bulldogs will be there along with Oregon.

01:13Oregon's toughest game after today is on the road in the Big House, right? They

01:17have that in the rivalry game against Washington at the end of the year. I

01:21think Penn State potentially is the one team that I look at with Ohio State on

01:26deck. They're three and a half point dogs in that matchup already. That's gonna be a

01:30factor. Penn State, to me, out of the top five, I think is the one question mark.

01:35They've answered the bell up until this point, but we've seen them play down to

01:39the level of competition. We'll see how it plays out over the next four or five

01:43weeks. So if you look right now, if you parlay those five, you get around minus

01:47178, which I think is a telling number because sometimes when we see a bunch of

01:52big favorites, man, come on, how does somebody lose there? You love to do with

01:55like a college basketball Saturday and you go, plus 125. Someone is gonna get up

02:00here. Minus 178, it shows just how strong all those numbers are. You mentioned the

02:05Nittany Lions. I think all that matters is actually winning today against

02:10Wisconsin. We're gonna break that game down, tell via the number that they, you

02:14know, laying under a touchdown on the road. That's a tricky spot. I don't think

02:18the Ohio State game has any bearing on them making the playoff. I think it has

02:22absolutely none. It's followed with Washington, Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland.

02:27Not to hand wave those teams, but again, if you're James Franklin, you can't lose

02:34those games. And I think even where if they beat Wisconsin today, you may get

02:40enough grace looking around the country. You might be able to lose a game, one of

02:44those. You're not losing, I cannot imagine, and that was final four games, they lose

02:48twice. What is so interesting and part of the excitement this year in Happy Valley

02:52is that Penn State doesn't have to play Michigan. The Big Ten East no longer

02:56exists, but it also ramps up the pressure on making sure you capitalize on the

03:01potential of reaching the college football playoff. Of those five best

03:05prices, only two teams undefeated, Oregon and Penn State, goes to show that despite

03:10a loss for Georgia, Ohio State, and Texas, the path to the CFP is still very

03:16favorable. In the top ten, Kev, as we look at it right now, a little bit more

03:20parity perhaps than the ten best prices entering the year. Three Big Ten teams,

03:25three SEC teams, but multiple ACC teams, Notre Dame thrown in there as well, and a

03:31Big 12 team, Iowa State, who is perfect at 7-0 as well. This story of this

03:37season has been parity. Generational starts, including the Cyclones and many

03:42others. Miami remains perfect as well. The Sunshine State showdown today against

03:48Florida State that we all circled entering the year as a monumental game

03:51for the CFP and the ACC, the Canes like 20 and a half. Yeah, look, Miami is in a

03:56good spot. Them not being minus three or them being minus 340 compared to the

04:00teams in front of them shows you how the books are still hesitant to believe that

04:04the ACC is going to send multiple teams at least confidently, which I think is a

04:09little unfair. I don't know, I feel right now, why is it that we have to put in

04:14six SEC teams? And again, preseason, I'm fine with that, but I think the ACC

04:20should right now look around and say Clemson, Miami are getting in, and you

04:24know, with SMU and Pitt playing well, but why the ACC should not feel like it's

04:29going to be a struggle to put their two best teams in this playoff. It's

04:32perception though, that's what it comes down to, right? You have the blue blood

04:36programs in the SEC going up against the newcomers like you mentioned, SMU, and

04:40even Pitt for that matter that had a win total of six and a half, so when they

04:44overexceed, it takes a while for the media and all the hype to surround them.

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