How long will it take to call the 2024 US election?

Insider

The US presidential election is almost here – but will we know who won on election night? Here's why it could take a while before the race is called.

Transcript

00:00The 2020 for presidential election is almost here, but it may take some time to figure

00:06out who exactly won the election.

00:08I'm John Dorman, and I'm a senior politics reporter at Business Insider.

00:12States like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, they're very close, and it would not be surprising

00:18to see those states not be called on election night, mostly because of the networks want

00:22to get it right.

00:23But there are some states, more safely Democratic or safely Republican states, those states

00:27will be called relatively early.

00:29Pennsylvania is a good example of a state where ballots can't be processed before election

00:33day, but it's going to provide a lot of clues to the eventual winner.

00:37Donald Trump on election night in 2020 had a pretty sizable advantage in Pennsylvania,

00:42but that was because a lot of smaller, more conservative counties report their results

00:46earlier.

00:47They have smaller populations, but Donald Trump's lead narrowed significantly in Pennsylvania

00:53when the vote came in from Philadelphia, which is the largest city in the state, and it's

00:57a Democratic stronghold.

00:59That was an enormous Biden advantage, allowed him to really overcome Trump.

01:03So in this election cycle in Pennsylvania, it could be several days before we know.

01:08California has a much more liberal policy when it comes to ballots being returned.

01:12The final result in California will probably not be known for a week or more, because ballots

01:18can still trickle in, and they don't have to be received by election day.

01:23While Kamala Harris is widely expected to win California very easily, I will say there

01:27are several House races that could determine the majority of the U.S. House of Representatives.

01:31So the outcome of the House could be in doubt, actually, for potentially a week or more.

01:36If those swing districts in California that are highly contested, depending on when the

01:40ballots come in, we could see a situation where we don't know who controls the House

01:44for a while.

01:45In 2020, Georgia was a state that Donald Trump at the time insisted that he won.

01:51There was no evidence of mass voting fraud in that state.

01:55He had a slight lead in the state on election night, but overnight and into the morning

02:00when votes from Democratic-leaning counties came in and votes from the suburbs and Atlanta

02:05suburbs came in, Biden was able to overtake Donald Trump at the time.

02:10And it was a big deal for Democrats.

02:12But Donald Trump contested and insisted that he had won the state.

02:17He tried to convince Brian Kemp, who was the Republican governor, and Brad Raffensperger,

02:21who's the current secretary of state.

02:22He tried to convince them to overturn the results.

02:24They refused to do it.

02:25So Georgia is, once again, expected to be very close there.

02:28But it's going to be another flashpoint in the polarization of our politics.

02:32The certification of the vote won't happen, though, until after the votes are counted.

02:37Also, if there are any particular recounts, which may occur in some of the more competitive

02:42states.

02:43The 2024 election cycle will also be a lot different than 2020, mostly because in 2020,

02:49millions of Americans chose to vote by mail.

02:52They just simply didn't want to go to the precincts because they were afraid of contracting

02:54coronavirus.

02:56This year, that's not as much of a concern.

02:58So you're likely to see more in-person voting on Election Day, but also early in-person

03:03voting, which is going on right now.

03:05The speed at which certain states report the votes, it really is going to vary.

03:10After the 2000 election in Florida, which was marred by lots of discrepancies, they

03:16passed voting reform.

03:17As a result, they're generally one of the first states to report on election night.

03:22Now that the state's a little more Republican-leaning, it may not provide an indicator of where the

03:26election's headed in this election cycle, but it is a great indicator of how a state

03:30can effectively have reforms and actually report the votes earlier.

03:34As for the outcome of the 2024 race going to the Supreme Court, we can take a look back

03:40at the year 2000, when it did go to the Supreme Court.

03:43But it was mainly because in Florida, there was actual litigation over the intent of voters

03:48when you looked at the ballot, in terms of hanging chads.

03:51I feel like that is less of an issue this year.

03:53The intent of the actual vote is one thing, but the actual certification of valid votes,

03:58it will be really hard to dispute that unless there is some sort of massive fraud, there's

04:03no indication that there will be an issue at all this year.

04:06If all goes well, we could know who won the presidency on election night.

04:10If Kamala Harris sweeps the blue wall states by a significant margin, and if she picks

04:15off most of the swing states, it will be really hard for anyone to say that Donald Trump won

04:19the election.

04:20Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump, should he win the presidential race, it will

04:24be really hard to dispute the results, especially if he has over 300 electoral votes, and he

04:28has not only a popular vote margin, but a significant electoral vote margin.

04:34But as it stands, the race is very close.

04:37We may not know who won the election for several days, but if the result comes a little

04:41sooner, there will definitely be a relief to a lot of voters who pretty much want the

04:45election to be over.

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